The New York Red Bulls will hope to navigate a tricky roster situation on Saturday when they host Inter Miami in a high-profile MLS clash. MLS odds show the Red Bulls favored to claim three points at home.
With six players out on international duty, manager Sandro Schwarz has a real problem on his hands. His side is coming off a 3-0 defeat at Columbus in which they looked poor, and now they're without top playmaker Emil Forsberg. And with MLS denying their request to postpone the match, he'll have to find a way to navigate this tricky situation.
Inter Miami manager Tata Martino might have even more of a selection headache. Not only will Lionel Messi miss out due to injury, but he’s without his goalkeeper Drake Callendar and key midfielder Diego Gomez due to international duty. Thankfully he’s still got Luis Suarez to lead his attack.
Our New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami picks and predictions for Saturday, March 23 looks at who Martino has at his disposal, and has identified one player who is getting outstanding value to be involved in their attack.
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami best odds
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
When you’re talking about Inter Miami’s quartet of former Barcelona players, it’s easy to sometimes forget about Jordi Alba. After all, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez dominate the headlines with their attacking threat, while Sergio Busquets is one of the best holding midfielders of his generation.
But the Spanish fullback has plenty of burst left in those legs at 35 years old, and he’s been a key force attacking down Miami’s left flank. And with the side missing key players heading into this fixture, his impact on the game takes on more importance.
I was thrilled to see TonyBet offering Alba to put a shot on target at +254 odds, which is our best bet for this MLS tilt. That’s because, for those who simply look at raw statistics and not player tendencies or a team’s system, it’s an easy value play to miss.
When you glance at the stats, Alba doesn’t really stand out. I mean, he’s only taken five shots this season through Miami’s first five matches in the league, with six of his teammates average more attempts per contest.
But analyze Alba’s style of play, and those familiar with him both in MLS and in La Liga know he’s not one to shoot simply for fun. Three of his five shots this season have been on target, including his only effort off in their 3-2 defeat to CF Montreal. That shot found the back of the net, a beautiful strike into the upper 90 that few keepers could stop.
With Barcelona, Alba didn’t shoot a whole lot. In his last two seasons, he averaged about a shot every 100 minutes in La Liga and only put 12 attempts on goal. But he also wasn’t as important to their attack as he is for Miami right now.
The beauty about Alba is he’s playing the same whether he’s in a fullback role, or given more license to attack as a wingback. He put an effort on goal against Orlando that registered 0.34 xG as part of a back four, while his goal against Montreal came with the side playing a 3-5-2 formation.
Last weekend, Alba came off the bench against DC United and put a shot on goal despite playing just 14 minutes. With Messi off the pitch, his ability to carry the ball up the wing and create becomes more important than ever.
With the way Martino is likely to deploy his side on Saturday, I’ll gladly bet on Alba to get an opportunity to test the goalkeeper at +254 odds.
My best bet: Jordi Alba 1+ shot on goal (+254 at TonyBet)
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New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami same-game parlay
Jordi Alba 1+ shot on goal
Luis Suarez anytime goalscorer
Inter Miami to win either half
In addition to Alba putting an attempt on goal, I love Suarez to find the back of the net. Despite your feelings on him as a person or competitor, there’s no denying his class in front of goal. He came off the bench last week to score twice against DC United, and his chipped second goal was simply world-class.
Suarez now has four goals and two assists in his last three MLS outings for Miami — despite having played just 109 minutes in that span. He’s set to start on Saturday, and I anticipate he’ll help Miami to yet another high-scoring day. That’s why we’ll also back them to win one of the two segments.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis
The Red Bulls are favored on the 3-way money line, a stark contrast from when the line first opened last Sunday. Originally priced at +200, they’re now sitting between +110 and +125 to claim all three points.
Miami went from near-even-money favorites to underdogs within hours. Right now, they can be had for +220 to win outright, while the draw is priced as high as +275.
The total of 2.5 goals is fairly evenly split, a rarity for an Inter Miami match. The Over was originally favored a fair amount, but it’s come down as we’ve gotten closer to matchday. But given the numerous absences — including both starting keepers — I would lean Over here.
The biggest absences for both teams are in midfield and defense, the Messi injury notwithstanding. But you still have attacking quality in Suarez and Leonardo Campana for the visitors, while Lewis Morgan has two goals this season for NYRB.
It’s also going to be very wet and windy, which always throws randomness into the equation — and weird bounces could cause problems for these inexperienced goalkeepers.
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New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami game info
| Location: | Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Time: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Temp: 52 F, POP: 89%, Wind: 12-20 MPH |
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami key injuries
New York Red Bulls: Emil Forsberg M (Out), John Tolkin D (Out), Cory Burke F (Out), Carlos Coronel GK (Out), Dante Vanzeir F (Doubtful).
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Out), Diego Gomez M (Out), Drake Callender GK (Out), Facundo Farias F (Out), David Ruiz M (Out).
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