St Louis City seeks to keep their playoff hopes alive when they host the LA Galaxy on Sunday.
With the MLS season entering the final stretch, it’s now or never for a St Louis side that continues to be plagued by injuries. However, my St Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy prediction backs a new superstar acquisition for LA to be a problem for them.
See why I’m backing Marco Reus with my MLS betting picks for Sunday, September 1.
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy picks and predictions
My best bet:
Marco Reus to score or assist (+110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After being a mainstay at Borussia Dortmund for more than a decade, Marco Reus has made his way to MLS as a member of LA Galaxy. He’s a massive pickup for a side that’s battling with cross-town rivals LAFC for top spot in the Western Conference.
Last weekend, Reus made his debut in the 62nd minute as he entered the middle of a scoreless draw. He wasted no time making his imprint on the match. First, his pass set up Ricard Puig for a shot from outside the box. That shot would be blocked via a hand, and although the ensuing penalty was missed it was just the start for the German winger.
It would take 10 minutes for the deadlock to be broken, and it was Reus who dribbled into the box and then laid off for Puig to hit home from just outside the top of the 18. Then Reus would add his first MLS goal just eight minutes later, when he put home a rebound from his saved effort to make it 2-0.
Despite playing only about a half hour, Reus attempted three shots, amounting to 0.79 xG, while also recording 42 touches. His class and quality on the ball were evident from the moment he touched the pitch, and he should be the focal point of the attack on Sunday with Puig suspended due to yellow card accumulation.
The Galaxy haven’t performed as well away from home this season compared to in Los Angeles, but their opponents on Sunday aren’t in a great spot. St Louis City has the fifth-worst home xGA in the Western Conference this season, and since a managerial change, they’ve won just one of their last six matches.
Opponents have scored multiple goals in eight of their last 11 fixtures, and St Louis conceded four in their last home match against Vancouver. In fact, three of their last opponents have bagged four goals against their defense — they’ve been porous to say the least.
St Louis are 10 points off the last playoff spot in the West, and have no choice but to try to go for a win. That will give Reus space to operate on the counter, and I’ll bank on him being involved in a goal at some point for one of the best teams in the league.
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy same-game parlay (SGP)
Marco Reus to score or assist
Marco Reus Over 2.5 shots
Over 2.5 goals
Reus managed three shots in his debut, albeit two of them came within seconds of each other. He’s a player who manages to find himself in dangerous spots, and with Puig suspended, it’s likely he’ll be involved in set pieces. Back him to get at least three shots in this one as well.
The Galaxy have the third-best away xG in the Western Conference this season, and have an xGA of 22.0 despite only conceding 16 goals on the road. St Louis have an xGA at home of nearly 1.5 goals per match, and their defense will struggle against the third-best scoring team in the league. I am expecting at least three goals to be scored on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy odds
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy live odds
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis City SC +350 | LA Galaxy -143
- Draw: +300
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy side and Over/Under analysis
- St Louis City are favored on the 3-way money line, with a price of +135 being the best available. The line has shifted heavily after opening with the Galaxy favored by as much as -161 a week ago. The visitors are now getting +175 odds, with the draw priced at +300.
- Puig’s suspension will have a big impact on the Galaxy, who have won 10 of 13. But I think the market is over-reacting. The Galaxy won their last two away fixtures without Puig, and they’ll get a result here against a St Louis team missing five first-team players. I like the draw given the price.
- The total is sitting at 3.0 with the Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 both heavily juiced. I think this is about right. Joao Klauss continues to be absent for the hosts due to injury, and their shot and goal output have both dipped since he went down. I like the Over 3.0 on the Asian handicap but would probably stay away from the total by itself.
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy game info
| Location: | CityPark, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-1-2024 |
| Time: | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Low 90s, moderate humidity, light winds, no chance of rain. |
St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy key injuries
St. Louis City SC: Joao Klauss F (Out), Celio Pompeu M (Out), Joakim Nilsson D (Doubtful), Tomas Ostrak F (Out).
LA Galaxy: Riqui Puig M (Out), Julian Aude D (Out), Emiro Garces D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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