The New York Red Bulls look to finish writing their Cinderella story when they travel to face the LA Galaxy in the 2024 MLS Cup this afternoon.
The Galaxy are hoping to add to their league-record five championships and win their fourth in front of their home fans, but the loss of Riqui Puig is a massive blow.
I break down how the loss of Puig presents some value for bettors in my LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bull predictions for Saturday, December 7.
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 goals (+112 at TonyBet)
My analysis
To say Riqui Puig was the heartbeat of the LA Galaxy this season is an understatement. Not only did his 88.9 accurate passes per 90 minutes pace MLS, but so did his 7.7 accurate long passes per 90.
Puig had 141 passes from open play that led to a shot — 56 more than anybody else on the team. His 12 assists were tied for fifth-most in the league, just behind teammate Gabriel Pec’s 15, as he vastly outperformed his 8.22 xA on the year. And he’s either scored or assisted a goal in 12 of his last 15 matches in league play.
Oh yeah, he had almost 340 more touches this season than any player in the league. In the Galaxy’s two wins leading up to MLS Cup, Puig had a combined 298 touches — an absurd number in itself, but one made all the more ridiculous considering he played the final half hour against the Sounders with a torn ACL.
There’s no way to replace Puig’s production, nor can Greg Vanney expect someone to do so. He’s likely going to play Marco Reus as the number 10, but multiple players will need to step up and make more plays.
Reus is coming into the match having gone a full 90 minutes just once since joining the club in the summer, and he’s coming in at less than full strength.
The issues with facing the Red Bulls without Puig go beyond simply replacing his creativity. The Spanish midfielder excels at keeping the ball under pressure, as well as launching the likes of Pec and Joseph Paintsill on the counter-attack.
Now those two will likely be relied on to help create those breaks, rather than simply taking off and latching onto Puig’s precise passes.
On the other side, the Red Bulls have made this miraculous run on the back of their defense. Three of their last four matches have seen them keep a clean sheet, all of which came on the road.
Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has been a menace as well this postseason, having denied 3.7 xG with saves in his last four matches. That includes an amazing save in the first half against Orlando in a 1-0 victory.
The Red Bulls pressure the ball relentlessly from a 3-4-1-2 setup, averaging 2.38 tackles per 90 minutes in the attacking third this season. Without Puig, the Galaxy are going to have to pass backwards more often than they typically would.
They’ll look to maintain possession against a Red Bull side that averages less than 45% per match and likes to launch long balls forward to Lewis Morgan, Dante Vanzeir, and Emil Forsberg.
The Galaxy have obliterated their xG in the postseason, scoring 16 goals from efforts totaling 6.73 xG. It’s a big reason why the Over is heavily favored here. But without Puig, this one will be much cagier, which means there’s strong value in taking the Under
Joseph Paintsil player prop: 4+ shots
Passing and controlling the tempo isn’t the only thing Puig brought to this team. His 3.72 shots/90 were second-most on the team this season behind Pec. And in their four playoff matches, he attempted 11 shots.
That means Paintsil will likely be looked to as someone to pick up that slack. He finished third on the team with seven goals and fourth in assists, notching 10 on the season. But he also ranked third on the team with 2.75 shots per 90 minutes, behind only Puig and Pec.
In their four playoff matches, he’s registered 14 shots in total. That includes four shots against Colorado and five more against Minnesota. And he has no problem firing from outside the box, with his shots averaging 17.8 yards from goal.
There’s not much value in the shot market for this match, and Paintsill getting nearly double the stake for four or more shots may be the best option out there.
The forward has been a terrific Designated Player signing and one of the top forwards in the league this season, and the absence of Puig means he will likely hit that four-shot floor.
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LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls odds
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls live odds
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls opening odds
- Moneyline: LA Galaxy -138 | New York Red Bulls +320
- Draw: +310
- Over/Under: Over 3.0 | Under 3.0
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls side and Over/Under analysis
- The Galaxy are favored to lift the trophy in regulation, priced at -115 on the 3-way line. The draw pays at +270, with a Red Bull win sitting at +280.
- The Galaxy have won all four playoff matches in regulation and have outscored their opponents 12-2 in three home matches. But the Red Bulls have won all three of their road playoff fixtures in regulation.
- The total of 2.5 sees the Over favored at -152.
- There have been Under 2.5 goals in all three away playoff matches for the Red Bulls, while the Galaxy’s 1-0 win over Seattle is their only playoff match to feature fewer than five goals.
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls game info
| Location: | Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 74F, calm and clear. |
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls key injuries
LA Galaxy: Riqui Puig M (Out), Martin Caceres D (Out), Marco Reus M (Probable).
New York Red Bulls: Roald Mitchell F (Out), Kyle Duncan D (Out), Felipe Carballo M (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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