Although Canadian Felix-Auger Aliassime is seeking his second bronze medal in the 2024 Summer Olympics, the red-hot Lorenzo Musetti is the betting favorite to win his first when the two meet on Saturday morning.
Read on to find out why I believe the Italian has the edge in my Auger-Aliassime vs. Musetti predictions for August 3.
Auger-Aliassime vs Musetti prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Musetti moneyline (-140) - My best bet
Over 22.5 games (-120)
Match analysis
Lorenzo Musetti probably should’ve beaten Novak Djokovic on Friday night, but his serve was ineffective, and he lost their semifinal match in straight sets.
As much as his loss to Djokovic must’ve stung, he has a terrific opportunity to secure a bronze medal when he meets Felix Auger-Alliasime on Saturday morning at Stade Roland Garros.
Musetti loves to run and hit big from both wings, and his rally tolerance is much higher than what Auger-Aliassime is usually comfortable with. FAA likes playing shorter points by preferring to run around his backhand, hit inside-out forehands, crack his booming serve, and clobber short balls.
The Canadian will be in for a long day, as Musetti positions himself 10-15 feet behind the baseline and won’t allow FAA to rain down the aces or smash the weak offerings he typically wins matches with.
Take away the Auger-Aliassime serve, and you'll likely beat FAA, and I believe that’s what Musetti does on Saturday. Musetti boasts the 18th-best break rate on dirt, broke Djokovic twice in the second set, and will relish the opportunity to exchange baseline missiles against his Canadian foe.
Musetti boasts better rally tolerance, his one-handed backhand allows for more options, and his defense is too good for Auger-Aliassime.
Best best analysis
I’m totally onboard the Musetti train, and why not? He’s having a tremendous season, is 19-5 since his fourth-round French Open loss to Djokovic, and two of his past five losses have come at the mercy of the 'Joker'.
However, as we witnessed against Djokovic, Musetti can really struggle with his serve. Meanwhile, FAA boasts a 24% break rate on dirt.
These young fellas like to hit big, and as young guys tend to do, can be a bit erratic. Considering a medal is on the line, the nerves of the occasion coupled with inconsistent serving can sometimes produce funny results, especially on the dirt.
Musetti has the edge, but Auger-Aliassime isn’t too far behind. I expect a tight, hard-hitting, and sometimes error-filled matchup, which is why my best bet is Over 22.5 games.
Auger-Aliassime vs Musetti odds
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| +110 | Moneyline | -140 |
| +1.5 (-125) | Game spread | -1.5 (-110) |
| Over 22.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-120) |
Odds as of 8-2.
Not intended for use in MA.
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