Although the Denver Broncos are coming off a rare poor defensive performance, that stingy stop unit should bounce back in Week 15 against an Indianapolis Colts offense led by struggling quarterback Anthony Richardson.
My NFL picks are also betting on the Under in the Battle of Pennsylvania, and I expect the Cowboys and Panthers to run roughshod over each other. Here are my best free NFL total bets for Week 15.
Week 15 totals bets
- Cowboys vs Panthers Over 43 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Steelers vs Eagles Under 43 (-110 at bet365)
- Colts vs Broncos Under 44 (-110 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 15 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Cowboys vs Panthers Over 43
Both of these offenses should be able to get whatever they want on the ground. The Carolina Panthers allow a league-high 170.1 rushing yards per game while ranking last in defensive rush success rate and second-last in defensive rush EPA.
The only team worse than Carolina in defensive rush EPA is the Dallas Cowboys, who surrender 141.9 yards on the ground. Those run defenses could be even worse since Dallas lost second-leading tackler DeMarvion Overshawn to a season-ending injury last week, while Carolina will be missing linebacker Trevin Wallace.
One of the few bright spots in Carolina's season has been the play of running back Chuba Hubbard, who boasts 1,011 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Rico Dowdle has stepped up for Dallas, rushing more than 85 yards in his last three games while rumbling for a season-high 131 yards last week.
When you also consider that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has shown improvement in recent weeks and tends to play better at home, the Over is the play.
Over/Under bet #2: Steelers vs Eagles Under 43
The total for this game has already dropped 2.5 points from the opening number of 45.5, but I still like the Under.
Since their bye in Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed a league-low 15.3 points per game while sitting second in defensive EPA. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers have relied on big plays to move downfield since they've been inefficient on a down-to-down basis. They are 22nd in the league in both yards per play (5.2) and offensive success rate.
The Eagles attack can put up points but they lead the NFL in rushing play percentage by a wide margin and generally need to establish the run with Saquon Barkley to open up their passing. That won't be easy against a stingy Steelers run defense that ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (91.5) and sixth in yards allowed per carry (4.1).
The Steelers also have a history of shutting down Lamar Jackson, so they should be able to gameplan against another mobile QB in Jalen Hurts.
Over/Under bet #3: Colts vs Broncos Under 44
After a brutal start to his season, Indianapolis Colts sophomore QB Anthony Richardson was benched for the 39-year-old Joe Flacco. After Flacco threw a flurry of interceptions, Richardson got back his starting job and responded with the best game of his career, throwing for 272 yards in a 28-27 win against the Jets.
Since then, Richardson has regressed to the terrible passer he's been for most of his career. He completed just 11-of-28 passes for 172 yards against the Lions in Week 12 before throwing for a pathetic 109 yards against a terrible Patriots D in Week 13.
Now he goes on the road to face the Denver Broncos, who lead the league in defensive EPA and defensive dropback EPA. This stop unit should feast on Richardson's atrocious accuracy and decision-making.
On the other side of the ball, this is a sell-high point for a Broncos offense that has overperformed the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Indy has quietly tightened up in Gus Bradley's scheme, ranking sixth in the league in defensive EPA since Week 6.
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