Week 10 of the NFL season went to the dogs with underdogs covering the spread in 11 of the 14 games while also picking up six outright wins. The underdog tear was certainly aided by some low-scoring matchups as nine of the games went Under their totals.
Perhaps as a result of the low scores throughout last week, we don't have a single total at or above the 50-point mark, and only four of the games on the board have a spread of three or smaller.
Pulling back and taking a look at the season as a whole, road teams have had the against-the-spread edge as they're covering in 54.7% of games entering NFL Week 11.
Let's get into my favorite NFL trends of the week!
Best NFL Week 11 betting trends
Colts vs Jets
The trend: The Jets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite
Backing the New York Jets as a favorite has been an awful investment. They already have outright losses as a favorite of seven vs. the Patriots and as a favorite of eight vs. the Broncos. They’re favored by four in Anthony Richardson’s return to action for the Indianapolis Colts.
See all Colts vs Jets trends for Week 11.
Vikings vs Titans
The trend: The Titans have gone Under their team total in all four of their home games
Rough scene for Tennessee Titans season ticket holders with the offense averaging just 17 points per game at home and none of the games coming against an elite defense. Against weak offenses on the road this season, the Minnesota Vikings held the Giants to six points and the Jaguars to seven. Tennessee’s team total is at 16.5 points.
See all Vikings vs Titans trends for Week 11.
Ravens vs Steelers
The trend: The Ravens are 9-1 to the Over this season
The Baltimore Ravens are an Over machine. Their games are averaging 57.1 combined points with their only Under coming in a game against the Bills where Buffalo had an outlier offensive performance with just 10 points. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense comes into this game on a stretch that’s seen them average 30.3 points per game since Russell Wilson took over at QB. This game has a total of 48.5.
See all Ravens vs Steelers trends for Week 11.
Browns vs Saints
The trend: The Saints are 5-11-1 ATS in games after a win since the start of the 2022 season
That 31.3% cover percentage in this spot is the worst in the NFL in this span. The New Orleans Saints got the new coach bump last week and picked up a win against the Falcons. There are not a lot of positive talking points for the Cleveland Browns but they are coming off their bye, so that’s something! The Saints are a one-point dog in what looks like the worst game of the week.
See all Browns vs Saints trends for Week 11.
Jaguars vs Lions
The trend: Since the start of last season, the Lions are 6-1 ATS in games after not covering the spread
This is in play this week as the Detroit Lions didn’t cover vs. Houston last week. I should also highlight that the Lions are 21-8 ATS since the start of last season. This game has a massive 14-point spread, which could scare some off, but don’t forget Detroit was a 12.5-point favorite vs the Titans a few weeks ago and went on to win by a modest 38 points.
See all Jaguars vs Lions trends for Week 11.
Packers vs Bears
The trend: The Packers are 10-0 SU and ATS in the last 10 matchups between these teams
Going back even further, the Green Bay Packers have gone an insane 22-5 ATS against the Chicago Bears since 2011. Even more ammo to support Green Bay is that they’re coming off their bye and are also a rock-solid 18-10 ATS following a loss under Matt LaFleur. The Packers are favored by 5.5 points.
See all Packers vs Bears trends for Week 11.
Raiders vs Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games where they were favored by seven or more
This seems relevant with the Miami Dolphins favored by seven. You can poke plenty of holes in the Dolphins, but this defense has performed very strongly in a handful of games this season while the offense has shown shades of its former self in recent weeks. This could be a great opportunity to capture some momentum against the crumbling Las Vegas Raiders.
See all Raiders vs Dolphins trends for Week 11.
Rams vs Patriots
The trend: The Rams are 2-7 ATS in the first quarter this season
The Los Angeles Rams are getting off to slow starts this season as they rank a brutal 31st in first-quarter scoring and 30th in first-quarter points allowed. The New England Patriots have a little bit of momentum going with two wins in their last three games and are a 1.5-point underdog in the opening quarter.
See all Rams vs Patriots trends for Week 11.
Falcons vs Broncos
The trend: Broncos games are 8-2 to the first-half Over this season
This looks like a good pairing for a high-scoring first half as Atlanta Falcons' first halves are averaging 29 combined points while, unsurprisingly, the Denver Broncos offense has been better at home. This game has a first-half total of 22.5 points.
See all Falcons vs Broncos trends for Week 11.
Seahawks vs 49ers
The trend: The 49ers have beaten the Seahawks by at least eight points in six straight games
This rivalry hasn’t been very competitive as the San Francisco 49ers have won these games by an average of 13 points. The Seattle Seahawks have gotten smashed against high-level competition this season with the Bills, Lions, and 49ers all beating them by 12 or more points. The Niners are favored by 6.5.
See all Seahawks vs 49ers trends for Week 11.
Chiefs vs Bills
The trend: The Chiefs are 19-4-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog
Insanity. The Kansas City Chiefs also have 18 outright wins in these games. This trend is especially hot lately, as Kansas City has also won seven straight games outright as an underdog. The Buffalo Bills are favored by 2.5 in what looks like one of the games of the year.
See all Chiefs vs Bills trends for Week 11.
Bengals vs Chargers
The trend: The Bengals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog
The Bengals can be a bit unpredictable from week to week, but they’ve made a great habit of playing up to the competition in recent seasons. It’s been a disappointing season overall for Cincinnati, but they’ve been bouncing back strongly after losses, going 3-0 after their last three losses with each win coming by double digits. They’re a +1.5-point underdog in this matchup.
See all Bengals vs Chargers trends for Week 11.
Texans vs Cowboys
The trend: Dallas has allowed an average of 40.2 points in its last five home games
This is just getting embarrassing now after the Eagles came into town last week and smashed the Cowboys 34-6. Dallas is also 0-5 SU and ATS in these games and should have their hands full vs. a suddenly desperate Texans team. Houston is favored by 7.5 and their team total is set at 24.5.
See all Texans vs Cowboys trends for Week 11.
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