I finally got back on track with the TDs last week as I cashed Anthony Richardson at +175 and hauled in a big Tim Patrick at +400 — I’m looking for more NFL touchdown prop wins in Week 16.
I’m starting things off by ambulance-chasing with the San Francisco 49ers’ backfield, going back to the well in Detroit, and hoping for some mop-up duties in Buffalo.
These are my three favorite anytime TD NFL picks for Week 16.
Week 16 touchdown props
- Taylor anytime TD (+110 at FanDuel)
- Patrick anytime TD (+325 at Caesars)
- Davis anytime TD (+300 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 16 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Patrick Taylor anytime TD
Best odds: +110 at FanDuel
The San Francisco 49ers have likely lost another running back as Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play Sunday thanks to a hamstring injury. That would put next-man-up Patrick Taylor as the No.1 back and although I’m not getting a wild number, a 49er RB at even money or better for a TD with the No.1 role is still a solid Week 16 play.
After losing RBs Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell to season-ending injuries, it now looks as if the 49ers will be without RB Isaac Guerendo for Sunday’s game vs. Miami. Guerendo is dealing with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play, per source. pic.twitter.com/PyqyBCqPoT
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 19, 2024
Taylor has not had much work of late because of Guerendo’s success, but he has been the backup and will lead the thinnest position the 49ers have in a critical game. Taylor is just one week removed from a seven-carry, 25-yard day with a score from the 3-yard line in garbage time. The other backs in San Francisco are Israel Abanikanda and practice-squader Ke'Shawn Vaughn.
The Miami Dolphins have six starters on offense questionable mid-week. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip issue and was awful last week while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle didn’t practice on Wednesday. It’s ugly for Miami right now and the Dolphins feel like a much worse 6-8 team than the 49ers.
Taylor can be had for a TD at +110 but I’d play him to +100 and maybe even to -110/-105.
TD Prop bet #2: Tim Patrick anytime TD
Best odds: +325 at Caesars
I’m going back to Tim Patrick this week despite a price adjustment. I hit him last week at +400, but I’m back this week at +325 and would play to +235. He has a red-zone target in five straight games and has three scores over his last two games.
The Detroit Lions are also a mess defensively and the loss of David Montgomery could increase this team’s pass rate. I know it’s a game vs. the Chicago Bears, who have done nothing offensively since moving Thomas Brown to HC, but Detroit is thin seemingly everywhere on defense and might have to let it fly to a win — even vs. a poorly run offense.
Patrick is also coming off a Week 15 where he finished with a season-high in route and snap share. Twenty-six percent of his targets over the last two weeks have come in the red zone and three (20%) have come inside the 5-yard line.
With the defensive injuries in Detroit and the bigger role Patrick is carving himself out with Kalif Raymond down, this is a TD bet I’ll make each week until it drops to +230.
TD Prop bet #3: Ray Davis anytime TD
Best odds: +300 at bet365
The Buffalo Bills might not need Josh Allen's heroics this week as they face the New England Patriots as a 14-point home favorite. New England has been one of the worst-scoring defenses over the last four games, allowing 117 points to the Cardinals, Colts, Dolphins, and Rams. They also have cluster injuries in two of the three defensive levels and will see a ton of rushing from the Bills.
There is not much value in backing James Cook for a TD at -168 but Ray Davis is the next man to get the ball in the red zone with nine carries since Week 7 where Cook has 25 and Ty Johnson has just two. This could be a game where Davis is getting the late carries and closing this game out with Buffalo up big and resting the starters.
Even if the Bills aren’t nursing a late lead, Davis has TDs in two of his last three games. For a player who has a role no matter the game script and possibly a boost in usage for the projected one, getting him for a TD at +300 this week is hard to pass up.
The market is split as some books are at +190 but I’d play this to +230 only. It’s going to be cold in Orchard Park so a great time to save Allen and deploy a 5-foot-9, 220-pound rookie running back.
Not intended for use in MA.
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