Texans vs Chiefs Predictions and Picks for NFL Week 16

Joe Mixon has been a beast for the Houston Texans this season, and they'll call his number early and often vs. Kansas City.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan ? Senior Betting Analyst
Dec 19, 2024 ? 11:05 ET ? 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 42 hrs
KC
47 %
HOU
53 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Joe Mixon o59.5  Rushing Yards (-110) Joe Mixon o59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Read Analysis
Joe Mixon Houston Texans NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Mixon carries the ball for Houston.

The Houston Texans come to Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday for a gut-check game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Houston is out to prove it belongs in the AFC title conversation, and my Texans vs. Chiefs predictions explain why Joe Mixon is the key to the visitors' success.

Here are my best NFL picks for December 21.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction

My best bet
Joe Mixon Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (115 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The Houston Texans are going to need a big day from running back Joe Mixon, especially on the ground. 

The Kansas City Chiefs will be coming after QB C.J. Stroud with one of the more blitz-happy schemes in the NFL. In order to keep that defense honest and play a little “keep-away” from Mahomes & Co., offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will be calling on No. 28 early and often.

Mixon sits 10th in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 11 games due to injury. He’s made the most of those carries, running for 910 yards — including seven games of 100+ gains on the ground.

He carried the ball only 12 times in the win over Miami last Sunday (picking up just 23 yards) due to suffering an ankle injury on a hip-drop tackle. That forced him on the sideline for a while and stunted his production on the ground once he returned.

Mixon popped up on the Texans’ injury report this week, nursing that sore ankle. But his limited work in practice is just for rest and recovery purposes, as the running back says he’ll definitely play on Saturday.

Kansas City’s run defense has gotten pushed around in recent weeks, allowing 538 total rushing yards over the past five games, with foes picking up 4.4 yards per carry. Last week, Cleveland carried the ball just 21 times for 139 yards rushing.

Mixon normally sees close to 20 rushing attempts per game and the Week 16 player projections come in around that average, with a very positive forecast for his yardage on Saturday.

Mixon’s models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 87 yards against the Chiefs, with my number coming out to 78 yards on the ground from the veteran RB. That’s well beyond his rushing yard total for Week 16, with the Over/Under at 60.5 yards.

Texans vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Joe Mixon 50+ rushing yards

DeAndre Hopkins 50+ receiving yards

Kansas City Chiefs moneyline

Mixon will get plenty of carries and some projections have him flirting with more than 80 yards on the ground.

DeAndre Hopkins has quickly become one of Mahomes’ favorite targets. His forecasts call for more than 50 yards through the air against his former club.

Kansas City has played in a lot of tight games, so we’ll sidestep the growing spread and take the home team to win outright on Saturday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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More NFL picks and odds from Covers


Texans vs Chiefs odds

Texans vs Chiefs live odds

Texans vs Chiefs opening odds

  • Spread: Houston -2.5 (-115) | Kansas City +2.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Houston -140 | Kansas City +115
  • Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Texans vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The look-ahead line for this AFC clash was Kansas City -3.5 before Mahomes injured his ankle in Week 15. The official opening odds hit the board with Houston as a 2.5-point road favorite and jumped to -3 before sharp money bought back KC at the field goal.
  • The total opened at 40.5 points and slipped as low as 39.5 O/U. Upon Mahomes’ updated status, the number jumped to 43.5 before buyback on the Under trimmed the total to the current spot of 41.5 points.
  • According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are on the Texans, while 51% of total picks are taking the Over. However, the bulk of those selections came in when Mahomes was questionable, and the Texans were favorites.

Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Houston Texans are 4-13 Over/Under in outdoor games the past three seasons, including 3-8 O/U the past two years (since draft Stroud) and 1-3 O/U outside in 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.

Texans vs Chiefs game info

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Saturday, 12-21, 2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Texans vs Chiefs latest injuries

Texans vs Chiefs weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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