The Houston Texans come to Arrowhead Stadium today for a gut-check game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET on NBC.
My Texans vs. Chiefs predictions explain why Joe Mixon is the key to the visitors' success in what will be a gut-check game for a Houston side out to prove it belongs in the playoffs.
Here are my best NFL picks for Saturday, December 21.
Texans vs Chiefs predictions
- Spread pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Chiefs moneyline (-172 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 41.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Joe Mixon Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Texans vs Chiefs spread prediction
If you read my NFL Underdogs column, you’d see I had faith in the Kansas City defense and backup QB Carson Wentz, betting the Chiefs at +2.5. Now, with Mahomes trending toward playing, this spread has swung to K.C. -3.5.
I bet on the Chiefs -4 last week, with the betting market finally reacting to Kansas City’s inability to cover the spread. That matchup with the Browns was the wake-up call for K.C., serving as a stiff cup of coffee to get this team playing at postseason levels.
With the vig on Kansas City -3.5 ticking upward, I want to bet the Chiefs below the undervalued key number of -4.
Texans vs Chiefs moneyline prediction
The odds for this Saturday's showcase have fluctuated more than my waistline this holiday season. Instead of cookies and beer driving those changes, it’s been the health of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes keeping oddsmakers on their toes.
Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over Cleveland in Week 15, leaving his status in doubt for this short week. That saw Houston opened as a slim road favorite, with Texans moneyline as high as -164.
But with Mahomes back at practice in full capacity, those odds flipped, and the Chiefs are now -172 home favorites to win outright. That gives K.C. an implied win probability of 63%.
Even before the update on Mahomes’ ankle, I believed Kansas City could still win outright. With the future Hall of Famer back under center, the Chiefs are an even stronger side at home on Saturday.
Texans vs Chiefs Over/Under prediction
With Mahomes questionable, this Over/Under opened at 40.5 and slipped to 39.5 O/U. Once Mahomes returned to practice on Tuesday afternoon, this number was boosted to as high as 43.5 O/U before buyback on the Under knocked it back to 41.5 points.
It’s a strange movement, considering the spread swung nearly a touchdown with Mahomes looking healthy. What that tells us is that oddsmakers have a lot of faith in the Chiefs' defense facing a Texans attack that doesn’t produce on the road.
Houston QB C.J. Stroud has only played in nine outdoor games in this pro career, and his passing metrics take a nose dive in those open-air venues. Saturday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the high 30s in Arrowhead Stadium.
I’ll lean Under at 41.5 points.
My best bet
Joe Mixon Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Houston Texans need a big day from running back Joe Mixon, especially on the ground.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be coming after QB C.J. Stroud with one of the more blitz-happy schemes in the NFL. In order to keep that defense honest and play a little “keep-away” from Mahomes & Co., offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will be calling on No. 28 early and often.
Mixon sits 10th in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 11 games due to injury. He’s made the most of those carries, running for 910 yards — including seven games of 100+ gains on the ground.
He carried the ball only 12 times in the win over Miami last Sunday (picking up just 23 yards) due to suffering an ankle injury on a hip-drop tackle. That forced him on the sideline for a while and stunted his production on the ground once he returned.
Mixon popped up on the Texans’ injury report this week, nursing that sore ankle. But his limited work in practice is just for rest and recovery purposes, as the running back says he’ll definitely play on Saturday.
Kansas City’s run defense has gotten pushed around in recent weeks, allowing 538 total rushing yards over the past five games, with foes picking up 4.4 yards per carry. Last week, Cleveland carried the ball just 21 times for 139 yards rushing.
Mixon normally sees close to 20 rushing attempts per game, and the Week 16 player projections come in around that average. His yardage on Saturday is forecast to be very positive.
Mixon’s models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 87 yards against the Chiefs, with my number coming out to 78 yards on the ground from the veteran RB. That’s well beyond his rushing yard total for Week 16, with the Over/Under at 60.5 yards.
Texans vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Joe Mixon 50+ rushing yards
DeAndre Hopkins 50+ receiving yards
Chiefs moneyline
Mixon will get plenty of carries and some projections have him flirting with more than 80 yards on the ground.
DeAndre Hopkins has quickly become one of Mahomes’ favorite targets. His forecasts call for more than 50 yards through the air against his former club.
Kansas City has played in a lot of tight games, so we’ll sidestep the growing spread and take the home team to win outright on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Chiefs odds
Texans vs Chiefs live odds
Texans vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Houston -2.5 (-115) | Kansas City +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston -140 | Kansas City +115
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line for this AFC clash was Kansas City -3.5 before Mahomes injured his ankle in Week 15. The official opening odds hit the board with Houston as a 2.5-point road favorite and jumped to -3 before sharp money bought back K.C. at the field goal.
- The total opened at 40.5 points and slipped as low as 39.5 O/U. Upon Mahomes’ updated status, the number jumped to 43.5 before buyback on the Under trimmed the total to the current spot of 41.5 points.
- According to the latest Covers Consensus data, 54% of picks are on the Texans, while 56% of total picks are taking the Over.
Texans vs Chiefs betting splits
According to BetMGM, these are the most popular NFL player props for the early Saturday kickoff by volume of tickets:
- Joe Mixon Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Isiah Pacheco Under 1.5 receptions made (-120)
- Xavier Worthy Over 3.5 receptions made (+105)
- Xavier Worthy Over 1.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Noah Gray Under 2.5 receptions made (-105)
Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Texans are 4-13 Over/Under in outdoor games the past three seasons, including 3-8 O/U the past two years (since they drafted Stroud) and 1-3 O/U outside in 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
Texans vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Texans vs Chiefs latest injuries
Texans vs Chiefs weather
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