There's no place like home for the holidays... unless you're getting points.
Home underdogs used to have more bite in the world of NFL betting. But it seems that point-spread pop with host pups has gone the way of the $5 footlong and original movie ideas.
Home underdogs were a go-to angle when it came to many NFL picks and predictions, boasting a near 52% blind cover rate between 1985 and 2022, with home dogs cashing in almost 56% of the time in that final season.
However, with the erosion of home-field advantage (now worth less than 1.5 points to the spread), home teams getting the points have cost bettors dearly the past two years. Since 2023, home underdogs are covering at a 44% clip, including a 33-48-4 ATS record so far in 2024 (41%). They went 1-5-1 ATS in Week 15.
The NFL Week 16 odds board has eight home teams with a padding of points and I’m betting on two of them with my NFL Underdogs picks. But before you go all “Grinch” on my ass, let me explain why those two host pups don’t fit the mold.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 22-20 ATS
NFL Week 16 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs pick
My pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
(-113 at BetRivers)
Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury has oddsmakers playing it safe with this Saturday game, setting the Kansas City Chiefs as slim home underdogs. Before that injury, Kansas City was a 3.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead line.
Mahomes is “week-to-week,” according to Chiefs coach Andy Reid and while he did look fairly mobile moving about after Sunday’s win over Cleveland and has played through this shit before, sprains feel worse the days following the injury.
Kansas City has a short week to get healthy for the Houston Texans and then faces an even shorter window before playing at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day next Wednesday. Knowing this, there’s a good shot KC will convince Mahomes to sit out Week 16 and go with capable backup Carson Wentz.
With Wentz under center, the Chiefs finally have something to rally around after being stuck on cruise control for the better part of the schedule. Let’s not dismiss this defense, which has fallen off in recent weeks but is still among the most disruptive in the land.
Steve Spagnuolo blitzes the balls off rival QBs and owns the sixth-highest pressure rate per dropback. Kansas City may have only 32 sacks on the season but ranks Top 5 in both hurries and QB hits.
That aggressive scheme will overwhelm a Houston offensive line that has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the past two seasons.
The Texans are 25th in pass block win rate, allowing second-year passer C.J. Stroud to feel the third-highest rate of pressure, which has boiled down to a league-high 58 hurries, 39 hits, 45 sacks, and a partridge in a pear tree.
On top of that, Arrowhead Stadium will be blackout drunk on Saturday (with all day Sunday to sleep it off), which means deafening crowd noise for an offense that’s been flagged for the ninth-most false starts.
If that wasn’t already a home-field edge, temperatures in KC are expected to be chilly on Saturday afternoon, with some forecasts calling for temperatures to "feel like" 27 degrees around the 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Arrowhead will feel worlds away from the safe climate-controlled confines of NRG Stadium.
Stroud has played in only nine outdoor games in his two years in the pros, watching his completion rate slip to 57.97% and his yards per attempt shrink to 6.59, compared to 8.21 yards/attempt on 66.2% completions indoors.
If Mahomes does suit up, BONUS! We will have gotten a great number with this spread swinging back toward Chiefs -3.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders pick
My pick: Las Vegas Raiders +1.5
(-110 at bet365)
If it wasn’t for some NFL player props, I would have skipped the Las Vegas Raiders’ appearance on Monday Night Football in Week 15. Unfortunately, I put myself through that painful exercise and felt dirty all over because of it. Funny, a lot of things in Vegas make you feel that way.
Out of that suffering comes insight and extra points, as Vegas opened as a 1.5-point home favorite but flipped to +1.5 with early play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Las Vegas looked horrible on offense for most of Monday’s game, with backup QB Desmond Ridder reeling in what had become a dangerous downfield attack since Scott Turner took over as the offensive coordinator.
Week 16 will see the return of Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. He was battling a knee injury and was downgraded to the team’s emergency QB on Monday, which means he should be good to go for this Sunday’s "Tank-a-Thon" at home.
With O’Connell under center, Turner’s aggressive playcalling has proved potent and should have little trouble testing the Jags' porous pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed the most “home run” plays on the season, with 63 completions of 20 or more yards allowed — 13 for 40-plus. It sits dead last in EPA allowed per dropback by a large margin.
The Raiders defense isn’t much better, but the blitz-happy pass rush has been on one in recent weeks. Las Vegas has collected 12 sacks over the past three games after totaling only 17 in the opening 11. It actually boasts the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN.
Jacksonville has backup Mac Jones at quarterback. He rates among the worst QBs in the league against the blitz (47th to be exact) as well as under pressure, according to PFF, and his two turnovers cost the Jags a win over the Jets in Week 15.
The Raiders and Jaguars are sliding toward the No. 1 overall pick, but I’m not buying into the "Tank for Shedeur" signs in Allegiant Stadium. Coach Antonio Pierce is trying to boost his resume for the offseason job hunt and O’Connell is playing to stay in the QB1 conversation.
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San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins pick
My pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
We get a "Master vs. Pupil" non-conference contest when Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers cross the country to face his former assistant Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins.
The 49ers are about as healthy as they’re going to get, coming off a mini-bye after last week’s loss to the L.A. Rams on Thursday Night Football. That soggy 12-6 finish should be taken with a grain of salt and I expect Brock Purdy and the passing game to have a much better day in Miami.
The Dolphins defense is dreadful and has been especially soft over the last three showings. Miami has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play and ranks 26th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13.
What’s more, Miami doesn’t bring much pressure and mixes zone and man coverage in the secondary. It’s notably vulnerable in zone schemes, ranking 30th in team coverage rate at PFF. Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league versus zone defense, owning the No. 1 passer rating against those concepts.
As for the San Francisco stop unit, it got key bodies back last week and should be even stronger in Week 16. Dre Greenlaw made his return last Thursday and DE Joey Bosa was back as well.
The Niners will have plenty of inside intel on McDaniel’s playbook, seeing that it’s rooted in Shanahan’s schemes, and the Dolphins could be down one of their biggest weapons in WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) and continue to miss top tackle Terron Armstead.
Shanahan got the best of McDaniel in their first meeting back in December 2022. The 49ers rolled the Dolphins 33-17 in what would be Purdy's coming-out party. The San Francisco defense snatched three interceptions along with a fumble recovering and allowed Miami just 19:26 of TOP.
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