This AFC North tilt just could be the deciding factor in whether the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens win the division.
Pittsburgh has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL, and my Steelers vs. Ravens predictions and free NFL picks expect Baltimore to take another step toward the AFC North crown with a convincing home win on Saturday, December 21.
Steelers vs Ravens predictions
Early spread lean
Ravens -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has been a machine at covering the number as an underdog with a sterling 62-32-3 ATS record (65.5%), but it’s also no secret, that Pittsburgh just lost straight up and against the spread to the Philadelphia Eagles 27-13 in Week 15.
The Steelers may have also lost defensive star T.J. Watt (ankle), and the offense has ranked 28th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) the past two weeks.
Even if Watt and Pickens return for this critical Week 15 clash, I don’t suspect either will be at 100%.
Of course, this is also a sweet schedule spot for the Baltimore Ravens.
The Baltimore Ravens had a bye in Week 14 and then they were able to coast to a 35-14 victory over the New York Giants with backups playing extra snaps on both sides of the ball in Week 15.
I don’t think the added rest advantage the Ravens have is fully built into this spread. After all, Pittsburgh had played four straight division games before heading to Philly last week and now have the Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and another AFC North game against the Cincinnati Bengals to finish up the year.
That’s a gauntlet schedule.
Fading the Tomlin underdog voodoo might end up looking foolish in hindsight, but Baltimore is in a far better spot going into Week 15, and I expect the Ravens to put too many points on the board for Pittsburgh to keep pace.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This total is moving down at BetMGM and other shops, and it definitely aligns with the Pittsburgh offense beginning to stutter, in addition to the obvious prowess of the Steelers stop unit.
Additionally, I think the Baltimore defense is still a bit unknown ahead of this game. A bye week can often serve as a perfect opportunity to tidy things up on defense, and again, the Ravens were able to rest multiple defensive starters to close out their Week 15 blowout.
Simply put, while I don’t think the Pittsburgh offense and quarterback Russell Wilson are going to march up and down the field against Baltimore on Saturday, I do expect Pittsburgh to try and run the football in an attempt to shorten the game and keep the Ravens offense on the sidelines. On the flip side, I do expect Pittsburgh to also make enough stops on defense to modestly hold the Ravens in check.
As a result, I lean toward the Under hitting for a ninth consecutive game between these AFC North rivals.
Steelers vs Ravens live odds
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