We have an exciting slate of games this Sunday, and as usual, I'm here to break down who will open the scoring in their respective games by examining the NFL touchdown props market.
I’ve got three NFL picks from three games across the day, and this week I'm backing three of the league’s best running backs.
Week 14 first touchdown scorer props
- Saquon Barkley (+275 at BetMGM)
- De'Von Achane (+430 at FanDuel)
- James Cook (+600 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 14 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Saquon Barkley
Best odds: +275 at BetMGM
This is the easiest pick possible this weekend, so let’s just run through the reasoning, not that you’ll need it.
Firstly, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only double-digit favorites this week, meaning it's quite likely they open the scoring against what’s been a terrible Panthers’ defense. Carolina has allowed the most touchdowns to running backs, with 17 in 12 games so far.
Then there’s Saquon Barkley himself, who is having an all-timer of a season. Through 12 games, he’s now had 13 touchdowns and has scored five in the past three weeks.
He’s dominating teams, and the Eagles are happy to ride him.
First TD prop bet #2: De'Von Achane
Best odds: +430 at FanDuel
The Miami Dolphins are six-point favorites against the Jets in this AFC East clash.
The Dolphins have looked far better since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury. However, their WR room hasn’t racked up the touchdowns in the way they have previously. Jonnu Smith has four, as does Tyreek Hill, with Jaylen Waddle on two.
It’s actually De’Von Achane who leads the team in receiving touchdowns with six, as well as rushing touchdowns with three. The Jets’ secondary aren’t having their best season but they’ve still been good, only giving up seven TDs to wideouts, the lowest in the league. With that in mind, there’s a very good chance Achane gets another one early.
First TD prop bet #3: James Cook
Best odds: +600 at Caesars
James Cook has found the end zone 12 times in 11 games, with the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen playing smarter by limiting the amount the QB runs. That decline in Allen's rushing TDs has only helped Cook, who has now scored more this season than his other two years in the NFL combined.
The Bills have been prepared to hand Cook the rock in the red zone, something that often went to Allen last year. That’s one of the reasons why Cook has now scored in six of his past seven games.
He’s on a hot streak, and with the Bills chasing the No. 1 seed, they’ll want to keep him pounding.
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