You don’t often head to Sin City to better your luck, but my Falcons vs. Raiders predictions like Atlanta's chances of snapping a four-game losing skid when they visit Las Vegas on Monday Night Football.
Oddsmakers have Atlanta set as a sizable road favorite and if it’s going to cover that spread, receiver Drake London must continue to have big games.
Here are my best NFL picks for Monday, December 16, with kick-off slated for 8:30 p.m. ET, live on ESPN.
Falcons vs Raiders MNF prediction
My best bet
Drake London Over 64.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Despite the Atlanta Falcons’ follies in the past four games, receiver Drake London continues to shine.
London has drawn 46 targets from QB Kirk Cousins, reeling in 25 receptions for a combined 314 yards in that span. That includes five catches on 10 targets for 70 yards in last week’s loss at Minnesota.
He’s gone Over his receiving yards prop in three of those four outings and faces a yardage total of 64.5 O/U in Week 15.
The Las Vegas Raiders own one of the worst defenses in the NFL and are notably soft against the pass, rating 27th in EPA allowed per attempt and 26th in opponent success rate per dropback. The Raiders have watched rival quarterbacks boast an average passer rating of 98.4 against — the seventh-highest in the league.
Vegas blends man and zone coverage in the secondary with the 12th-highest rate of man-to-man yet ranks 32nd in team coverage in those schemes at PFF. London comes into Week 15 as the No. 8 receiver versus man coverage, and player projections call for another solid effort from the Southern Cal product.
Models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 78.5 yards from London on Monday Night Football, with my forecast calling for 73 yards versus Las Vegas. That’s plenty of gains to get us past London’s yardage total of 64.5 O/U on MNF.
Falcons vs Raiders MNF same-game parlay (SGP)
Drake London Over 64.5 receiving yards
Drake London anytime TD
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 passing TDs
London is drawing a high volume of passes and will exploit the Raiders' soft man coverage.
London is also seeing a ton of targets in the red zone, and Las Vegas struggles to protect against passes there.
Cousins hasn’t thrown a touchdown during this four-game stumble but the drought comes to an end in Sin City, with projections leaning toward two TD throws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Raiders odds
Falcons vs Raiders live odds
Falcons vs Raiders opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta -6.5 | Las Vegas +6.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -270 | Las Vegas +210
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Falcons vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
• Oddsmakers opened Atlanta as a 6.5-point road favorite with Las Vegas QB Aidan O’Connell leaving Week 14 with a knee injury. Money instantly came in on the Raiders, knocking this spread down to as low as Atlanta -4.5.
• O’Connell’s status showed up as questionable and the spread slimmed to -3.5 before coming back up to Falcons -5.5 ahead of the week. While the Raiders get an extra day to rest, O’Connell hasn’t practiced this week and it looks more likely the Desmond Ridder will get the start vs. his former club.
• The Over/Under opened at 41.5 points and has slowly climbed to 44.5 O/U, pushing through the key total numbers of 43 and 44 points this week.
Falcons vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Falcons are pure poison versus AFC opponents. They’ve gone 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in non-conference games since 2022, including a 0-4 SU and ATS record versus the AFC this season. Those games have also gone 2-12 Over/Under. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Raiders.
How to watch Falcons vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, 12-16-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Falcons vs Raiders latest injuries
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