The Miami Dolphins have been surging since the return of the Tua Tagovailoa, and one of the biggest beneficiaries has been wideout Jaylen Waddle.
Find out why the speedy receiver headlines my favorite Dolphins vs. Packers props and NFL picks for Thursday, November 28.
Dolphins vs Packers TNF props
Waddle o44.5 rec yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Love o0.5 INTs (-128 at FanDuel)- Tagovailoa u0.5 INTs (-110 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Dolphins vs Packers TNF props
Prop bet #1: Jaylen Waddle o44.5 receiving yards
Jaylen Waddle is coming off the best outing of the season, putting up eight receptions, 144 yards, and a touchdown in the Miami Dolphins' latest blowout win over New England.
The former rookie reception record holder should continue to see improved production against a Green Bay Packers defense that ranks ninth-worst in pass defense DVOA against short passes, which has been the bread and butter of the Dolphins offense.
Mike McDaniel has changed the offense to ensure that Tua gets the ball out as quickly as possible in order to avoid contact, and Tagovailoa's air yards per attempt has been the ninth-shortest since returning.
Prop bet #2: Jordan Love o0.5 interceptions
An MCL sprain in Week 1 and a groin pull in Week 8 have thrown Jordan Love off balance this year, and his throws have been off target as a result.
Love was already an unshy gunslinger whose risky throws sometimes landed him in some deep water, but this year has been even worse on that front. The Packers quarterback has managed just one interception-free game in nine starts, a stark contrast to last season when he went 10 of 17 regular-season games without a pick.
Meanwhile, Miami has generated an interception in four straight games, and I like the Phins' defense to make it five on Thursday.
Prop bet #3: Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 interceptions
We highlighted the schematic change since Tua Tagovailoa's return, with McDaniel opting for quick passes that help get the ball out of the quarterback's hand before he faces too much duress.
And that change has led to fewer interceptions of Tagovailoa, who has thrown just one interception in five games since his return.
This is a great buy-low spot on a market that seems to be anchored by past performance in a different iteration of this offense, but more importantly, a sell-high spot of a Green Bay defense that has generated 11 interceptions — but with seven coming from safety Xavier McKinney, who shouldn't be near the vast majority of these short passes.
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