The Week 11 slate has plenty of highlights, but it doesn’t get any better than Josh Allen against Patrick Mahomes in the latest installment of the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs rivalry.
While neither offense is as explosive as in prior versions of this matchup, there’s still a pile of NFL picks to dig through, and something’s got to give with Buffalo unbeaten at home and Kansas City entering at 9-0.
Make sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. Bills predictions before placing your bets!
Chiefs vs Bills props
Kareem Hunt Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-110 at BetMGM)
Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)- Mack Hollins anytime TD (+300 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chiefs vs Bills props
Prop bet #1: Kareem Hunt Over 17.5 rushing attempts
It hasn’t always been efficient, but Kareem Hunt’s hard running has played a key part in extending the Kansas City Chiefs unbeaten run past the halfway point in the season — and I expect him to be at the center of the Chiefs’ game plan this weekend.
Setting aside Hunt’s quieter outing last weekend against a bruising Denver front seven, he had averaged 24 carries a game in his four prior contests while successfully relieving some of the burden on Mahomes’ shoulders.
That makes this 17.5 rushing attempts O/U a little surprising, given the likelihood that the visitors will turn to the ground game to sustain long drives and keep the Buffalo Bills offense off the field. The threat of Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins will prevent the Bills from stacking the box, and there should be gaps for Hunt to attack against a middle-of-the-pack Bills run defense that’s allowing 123 yards per game on the ground.
With Isiah Pacheco still sidelined, Hunt is the undisputed leader of this Kansas City backfield, and I’m banking on a busy afternoon for the veteran back.
Prop bet #2: Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards
There aren’t many weak spots in a Kansas City defense that’s holding opponents to 290 total yards per game this year, so Josh Allen may have to get creative to move the chains here.
His passing yards prop feels risky with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid ruled out, plus Amari Cooper listed as questionable, so I’m looking for the Bills quarterback to inflict damage with his legs — whether that’s via scripted runs or scrambling magic.
While the Chiefs are only giving up 83 rushing yards a game this season, I’m encouraged by Allen’s prior success in this matchup. He ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City in the playoff loss back in January, and he also eclipsed 30 rushing yards in their last regular season meeting.
If nothing is open down the field, particularly on third down, Allen will have little choice but to tuck the football and try to pick up yardage. I see him calling his own number enough times to cash in the Over on this prop.
Prop bet #3: Mack Hollins anytime touchdown
This is a longer shot, but the Bills’ depleted receiver room should mean more snaps for Mack Hollins, who’s caught all of his nine targets over the past two weeks.
That includes a touchdown grab against Miami in Week 9, and at 6-foot-4, he’s a real threat for Buffalo in the red zone when he’s matched up with a cornerback. If Cooper is ruled out, Hollins becomes a borderline No.2 receiver in this offense, as well as an intriguing upside pick for an anytime touchdown at big plus odds.
The Kansas City defense will be focused on stopping Allen, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir, so the Hollins matchup could be profitable for the Bills — not just around the goal line but also as a field-stretching deep threat.
And if the hosts fall behind, this prop becomes even more appealing, with the likelihood of less conservative play calls on first and second down.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
