A Super Bowl LV rematch between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs lost its shine when Tampa Bay lost star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury. My Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions rely on Kansas City's star power surplus, led by Patrick Mahomes.
My NFL picks expect Mahomes to let it fly tonight at Arrowhead Stadium with kick-off set for 8:15 p.m. live on ESPN.
Buccaneers vs Chiefs prediction for Monday Night Football
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s been a weird year for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The results remain the same, with Kansas City a perfect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS), but that undefeated record isn’t solely on the shoulders of Mahomes. In terms of quarterback play, No. 15 has been somewhat pedestrian, despite sitting third in the MVP futures.
Of course, Mahomes always rises to the occasion when called upon, but his 2024 output places him outside of the Top 10 in many advanced QB metrics and he’s middle of the road in terms of passing yards and touchdown passes.
In fact, Mahomes has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8) entering Week 9. That’s skewed his player props around TD throws, with his total for Monday night at 1.5 passing TDs O/U and the Over priced at -120.
Mahomes has been shut out of end zone throws two times and has connected for two or more TDs in only three games, including last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas City was 3 for 4 in the red zone with Mahomes passing for two touchdowns on connections of five and nine yards.
Tampa Bay’s defense has given up the sixth most passing touchdowns on the season with a collective 16 against, but nine of those have come in the past two weeks. The Bucs watched Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins hit four scores in Week 8 and Baltimore Ravens passer Lamar Jackson hung four passing “tuddies” on Tampa in Week 7.
The Buccaneers’ red zone defense has crumbled in the past three weeks and they’re also susceptible to deeper passing strikes as well. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in opponent success rate per pass. It’s allowed 26 passing plays of 20 or more yards, including six completions for 40-plus yards.
Adding to those troubles are injury concerns in the secondary, with top cornerback Jamel Dean on IR, nickelback Tykee Smith dealing with a concussion, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. questionable with a foot injury. That could leave some weak spots in the Bucs’ zone-heavy schemes.
Tampa Bay loves to bring the blitz, attacking with extra bodies at the sixth-highest rate. However, Mahomes is fantastic at moving away from pressure and making foes pay for blitzing. The Buccaneers have been beaten up by tight ends this year and Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ best blitz buster, with No. 87 picking up steam in recent weeks and finally finding paydirt in Week 8.
Player projections for Mahomes range from 1.4 touchdowns to 1.9, with my number at 1.7 passing TDs on Monday Night Football. This prop opened with Over 1.5 as low as -108 and that’s been bet up as high as -131 at some sportsbooks. I’m grabbing the -120 on the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns from Mahomes on Monday.
For more on the Chiefs' QB, check out our Patrick Mahomes player props!
Buccaneers vs Chiefs picks and same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes 2+ Touchdown Passes
Travis Kelce Touchdown Anytime
Kansas City First Half/Full Game Winner
Mahomes projections are leaning toward two touchdowns against a banged-up Bucs defense that has allowed nine passing TDs in the past two games.
Tampa has trouble with TEs and there are none better than Travis Kelce, who will see plenty of check-down action with the Bucs bringing blitz.
The Chiefs are big favorites and will hold the lead at halftime before closing out the Bucs in primetime at Arrowhead.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buccaneers vs Chiefs odds
Buccaneers vs Chiefs live odds
Buccaneers vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay +8.5 | Kansas City -8.5
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -371 | Kansas City +314
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Buccaneers vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
• Kansas City opened as a 9.5-point home favorite for MNF. This line dipped to as low as -8.5 before getting bet back up to KC -9.5 this weekend. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of picks are laying points with the Chiefs.
• The Over/Under total opened at 44.5 O/U and climbed to 46 before setting in at 45.5 points. According to Covers Consensus, 69% of picks are taking the Over.
• The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for rain throughout Monday’s game with wind gusts getting up to 21 mph.
Buccaneers vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Kansas City has been a favorite of a touchdown or more in 36 home games since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018. The Chiefs are 12-24 Over/Under in those contests as big home chalk (67% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Chiefs game
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
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Buccaneers vs Chiefs latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Chiefs weather
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