The hits keep coming for the San Francisco 49ers in this snake-bitten season, and they're set to visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday without Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET, and FOX has the coverage.
With those latest setbacks taking some of the gloss off Christian McCaffrey’s return from injury, my 49ers vs. Packers predictions jump on the massive quarterback mismatch between Jordan Love and Brandon Allen.
There’s always something special about two long-term NFC rivals squaring off, and my NFL picks for this November 24 clash see Green Bay generating most of the offense at Lambeau Field.
49ers vs Packers prediction
Who will win 49ers vs Packers?
At full strength, the 49ers would have been an enticing road pick here, but there were red flags in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks — and now the injury list is even more damaging.
Prediction: Though the Packers have ridden their luck lately — their last three wins all came down to last-second field goals — they’re the more balanced team and I see them edging this battle at home.
My best bet
Pick: Jordan Love Over 244.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Jordan Love rollercoaster is the gift that keeps on giving.
The Green Bay Packers are sitting pretty at 7-3, but Love continues to blow hot and cold. If you catch the right quarter, he looks like the best passer in the NFL. At other times, he commits to throws like a raw rookie.
However, with the San Francisco 49ers reshuffling their defense sans Nick Bosa, this is a game where we’ll see more of Love’s strengths.
That leads me to the Over on his passing yards prop. He’s eclipsed 244.5 passing yards in five of his eight starts this season — and he got to 261 yards last weekend against Chicago despite Green Bay only putting up 20 points.
It also helps that the Packers have the luxury of one of the NFL’s deepest receiver rooms, masterminded by the creativity of Matt LaFleur.
Christian Watson stole the show in Week 11 with a 150-yard outing, but Love has his pick of other options — including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, and even Josh Jacobs — to challenge a solid 49ers secondary.
As good as Fred Warner is at patrolling the middle of the field, the same can’t be said for fellow linebacker (and former Packer) De’Vondre Campbell. There should be chances to pick on him in coverage and feed off play-action.
With the speed across this Green Bay offense, it would be no surprise to see a few big plays to pad Love’s passing numbers, and I’m counting on him having enough time in the pocket to reach this Over.
49ers vs Packers same-game parlay
Jordan Love Over 244.5 passing yards
Under 44.5
Christian McCaffrey Over 30.5 receiving yards
With the 49ers trying to gel with a backup quarterback and the Packers holding four of their last six opponents to 22 points or fewer, I’m adding the Under to my SGP.
Only one of Green Bay’s last six games has hit the Over, and I expect the San Francisco game plan to lean into long run-heavy drives. The visitors have been held below 20 points twice in the past month, and we’ve seen a few cracks along the offensive line.
I’m also wagering on Christian McCaffrey being a key check-down option for Brandon Allen. CMC had four catches for 27 yards in his Week 11 return, and Kyle Shanahan is likely to ease Allen into this game with some easy throws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
49ers vs Packers odds
49ers vs Packers live odds
49ers vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco +2.5 | Green Bay -2.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco +100 | Green Bay -130
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
49ers vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- A line that opened at -2.5 quickly climbed to -5.5 once the Purdy and Bosa news broke, but the Packers haven’t covered the spread in any of their last four games.
- Though the 49ers have won four of the past six meetings between these teams, the drop-off to Allen at quarterback makes it tough to take the points.
- That’s especially true against a Green Bay team that has cashed in the 1Q moneyline in 16 of its last 21 contests.
- The Packers have hit the 4Q Under in 13 of their past 18 games.
- 56% of Covers Consensus picks have the Packers, and 51% are on the Under.
49ers vs Packers betting trend to know
Green Bay has only covered the 4Q spread in seven of its last 18 contests. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Packers.
How to watch 49ers vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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