Points could be at a premium when NFL Week 13 comes to a close. Oddsmakers have a short total on the board for Monday Night Football’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.
That Over/Under has the anytime touchdowns markets tightening in primetime, with just four players priced at 2/1 or shorter for this popular prop bet.
I measure the Monday night matchups and give my best anytime touchdown NFL picks for Browns vs. Broncos on December 2.
Browns anytime touchdown pick
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown
+165 at FanDuel
Nick Chubb at plus-money odds to score a touchdown used to be an automatic wager for most. The Cleveland Browns running back is still working his way into form after returning from knee surgery in Week 7 but is coming off a two-touchdown effort against Pittsburgh in the snow last Thursday.
Despite missing the first half of the schedule, Chubb is tops in red-zone carries for Cleveland with 18 attempts inside the 20-yard line, scoring all three of his touchdowns in the RZ.
The Denver Broncos are a formidable test on the goal line, which is why Chubb is priced this high after ranging from +110 to +155 in his first five games back. Denver owns the lowest touchdown rate inside the red zone and the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs (5).
Player projections call for between 0.3 and 0.5 touchdowns from the Browns’ bruising RB on Monday night. And while Chubb’s rushing yards may be tempered against the Broncos, if Cleveland does get close to the goal line, it’ll be Chubb getting the call.
His anytime touchdown prop is priced as low as +125 at some shops. You can get the most bang for your Browns bets at +165 over at FanDuel sportsbooks.
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Broncos anytime touchdown pick
Bo Nix anytime touchdown
+280 at FanDuel
Bo Nix is more than comfortable keeping it for himself, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his first season as a pro.
The rookie quarterback hasn’t been asked to do too much with his legs the past two games, facing passing defenses from Las Vegas and Atlanta. However, Week 13 throws an aggressive Cleveland pass rush at him on Monday night.
The Browns love to bring blitz and hold the third-highest pressure rate generated per opponent dropback. Even with Denver’s pass protection among the finest in the land, Nix will find himself feeling the heat and forced to run.
Not only is he a viable option to run one in on a scramble but the Broncos can also call his number on QB sneaks at the goal line. Hell, we’ve seen Sean Payton run Nix out as a receiver, catching a two-yard TD pass on a trick play against Baltimore.
Some projections forecast 0.3 rushing touchdowns from Nix in Week 13 (should carry +233 odds), which is just behind some of the more mobile and dangerous dual-threat QBs in the league. Some sportsbooks have this prop as short as +162, but FanDuel is offering as high as +280.
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