There’s an AFC West tilt at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, November 10, with the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs hosting the surprising 5-4 Denver Broncos. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET with the game airing on CBS.
It’s been a strong Denver defense leading the way, but our top NFL picks and Broncos vs. Chiefs same-game parlay selections expect the K.C. offense to be just fine in Week 10.
Read my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions for even more analysis ahead of game time.
Broncos vs Chiefs SGP for Week 10
Chiefs team total Over 24.5
Javonte Williams Over 37.5 rushing yards
Justin Watson Over 15.5 receiving yards
- Chiefs Over 24.5 points
- Javonte Williams Over 37.5 rushing yards
- Justin Watson Over 15.5 receiving yards
The Kansas City Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in each home game with an average of 27.3 per, and they also pace the league in offensive success rate while ranking ninth in both offensive DVOA and EPA per play.
I’m also not convinced the Denver Broncos defense can live up to its impressive metrics. Call me skeptical, but I don’t think the Broncos allowing the third-lowest EPA per play, ranking seventh in defensive DVOA, and grading fifth in PFF defense grade is sustainable.
The Baltimore Ravens had no problem hanging 41 points on the scoreboard while posting the highest yards per play and EPA per play against Denver last week, and this is another step up in class for the defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have been an imposing run defense with the lowest yards per carry (3.1) and fourth-highest PFF run defense grade.
Still, Broncos running back Javonte Williams has 40 or more rushing yards with double-digit carries in five of his past six contests while averaging a respectable 4.3 per tote.
I also value the Denver offensive line coming together and run blocking better as the season has progressed. The Broncos averaged a 48.2 PFF run blocking grade through the first three weeks of the year, and they’ve since posted a 66.1 grade the past six games, which also aligns with the highlighted improved running from Williams.
Additionally, Denver has climbed to sixth in rushing success rate over the past six games compared to ranking 23rd through the first three weeks.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, I frequently look for Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson in this market because he’s always carrying a low receiving yards total despite his consistent role in the offense. Watson has hauled in six of seven targets for 76 yards across the past two games to soar way over this 15.5 yard benchmark in each, too.
There’s also potential Watson has positive regression ahead of his yards per reception and aDoT considering his much higher numbers in each of his first two seasons in the Kansas City offense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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