After playing just last week, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State will play a rematch, but this time with the Conference USA Championship on the line at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET with the game airing on CBSSN
Given the Gamecocks’ uncertainty at quarterback and WKU's explosive passing attack, I expect a tight game for the C-USA crown in my Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks for Friday, December 6.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Pick: Western Kentucky +5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Regardless of whether Huff plays or not, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have the talent to keep this game within five points. This Hilltoppers passing attack, in particular, should make a huge difference.
Western Kentucky is 63rd in the country in EPA per dropback, while this Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense is just 97th by the same metric. In last week’s 2-point loss to WKU, Jax State gave up 301 passing yards to Caden Veltkamp, who has been arguably the best pure passer in the conference all season.
After quarterback TJ Finley went down with an injury early in the year, Veltkamp stepped in and has thrived with a talented pass-catching corps led by Kisean Johnson and Easton Messer. That trio is poised to push a Jacksonville State defense that’s just 87th in SP+ and allowing 27 points per game, 83rd in the country.
Huff has been the key to that this season. He’s 19th in the country in rushing yards (1,176) and second among QBs. If he’s out or can’t move the same way as usual, that could completely change Jacksonville State’s approach.
It should also allow Tyson Summers’ defense to key in on stopping Tre Stewart, one of the best running backs in the Group of Five. Summers’ defense has quietly been one of the best during the Tyson Helton era in Bowling Green.
WKU ranks 64th in SP+ on defense and is allowing just 22.2 points per game, the 43rd-best mark in the country. If the defense can contain Huff/Smothers and Stewart to some extent, the Hilltoppers have the offensive firepower to cover.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay (SGP)
Western Kentucky +5.5
Caden Veltkamp Over 254.5 passing yards
Tre Stewart anytime touchdown
Veltkamp has ridden the momentum of last year’s out-of-nowhere bowl game performance into an impressive season as the starter despite not starting the year as QB1. He’s thrown for 255+ yards in six games, including two straight, and has the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate in the G5 (77.9%), per PFF.
In a game against an offense that’s Top 20 in the country in scoring (35.4 ppg), Veltkamp will need to go to the air early and often. Stewart's ability on the ground is a big reason why the Gamecocks are able to do so.
He’s seventh in the country in rushing yards (1,403) and sixth in rushing touchdowns (20). He's scored in 10 of 12 games this season, and his tackle-breaking ability — 921 yards after contact, 65 forced missed tackles — should help him find the end zone against WKU.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State odds
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State live odds
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State opening odds
- WKU vs. Jacksonville State spread: Jacksonville State +1.5
- WKU vs. Jacksonville State moneyline: Western Kentucky +100, Jacksonville State -1202
- WKU vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Jacksonville State opened as a 1.5 to 3-point favorite, with the line steadily climbing multiple points and most books now offering the Gamecocks at -5.5.
- While Jacksonville State is 6-6 ATS this season, it’s just 1-3 since November, meanwhile WKU is 7-5 and covered last week against the Gamecocks.
- The game total opened as low as 56.5, with most books coming up to between 57.5 and 58.
- The Gamecocks are 7-5 O/U this season, but the Hilltoppers are just 5-7 O/U. Last week’s game stayed Under the total.
- 67% of Covers Consensus users are backing Jacksonville State on the spread, while 56% are taking the Under.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know
Western Kentucky has covered the spread in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State.
How to watch Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State game info
| Location: | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL |
| Date: | Friday, 12-6, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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