NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Rebels Dampen Broncos Playoff Hopes

Western Kentucky moneyline

Best odds: +175 at BetMGM

If it seems like only a few days ago when these teams played last, well, that’s because it’s only been a few days since Western Kentucky pulled off the upset at home over Jacksonville State and miraculously found a way into the Conference USA title game.

The Hilltoppers got four field goals from kicker Lucas Carneiro, including a pair of 50-yard connections inside the final minute of either half. The last one came with three seconds remaining as the Gamecocks were sent home stunned.

But the big news of the day was the ankle injury to Tyler Huff, who had run for 97 yards on 13 carries prior to the injury. His playmaking ability with his legs is a crucial component to the Jacksonville State offense, and head coach Rich Rodriguez said Wednesday Huff will be a game-time decision.

Whether he starts or not, his running ability won’t be there for an offense that depends on it. Tre Stewart wasn’t his explosive self last weekend without his quarterback, and Logan Smothers can’t properly replicate what Huff does. 

Western won the game by keeping the Gamecock offense on the sideline and keeping its defense fresh. The Toppers had the ball for over 37 minutes, converted seven of 20 attempts on third down, and punished a Jacksonville State defense ranked 96th in total success and 85th in EPA/pass.

The Hilltopper defense isn’t great against the run, but it does well against the pass and will be able to load the box against an offense ranked 72nd in EPA/pass. Staying fresh is important, and the offense will once again control the tempo and do enough to pull off another upset. 

UNLV moneyline

Best odds: +160 at BetMGM

If not for Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty would be running away with the Heisman, much like he’s run away from defenders this season. He’s got a stiff arm that reminds people of the trophy, and he’s rushed for nearly 2,300 yards on the season.

In fact, Jeanty has run for at least 140 yards in all but two games this season. One was a win over Portland State in which he had only 11 carries back in September. The other was a 29-24 win over UNLV in late October, where — albeit playing with a bit of an injury — he had 33 carries for just 128 yards. 

And while the Boise State Broncos won the game in the end, it took a lot of things going their way. They converted all four of their fourth-down attempts to keep key drives going. In fact, all three touchdown drives involved one of those conversions, with two of the TDs coming on fourth-down runs.

The Broncos also gained just 5.4 yards per play on the day. While that’s solid, it’s almost a full yard less than what the Rebels gained per snap. The Broncos outgained UNLV by only 27 yards despite running 15 more plays. 

And those touchdowns Boise State scored? One of them came after UNLV threw an interception inside its own 25. It took a fourth and two conversion to punch it in as the first half expired to give the Broncos a three-point lead heading into the break.

Jeanty is a terrific back, but he’s shown signs of wearing down in the second half of the season. After averaging at least seven yards per carry in each of his first six games, he’s managed five or less in three of his last six. UNLV held him to a season-low 3.9 yards per attempt, thanks to a defense ranked 26th in success rate and 28th in EPA/rush.

UNLV has an offense that can move the ball, and it's already done so against this Boise State defense that ranks 101st in EPA/pass and 63rd in success rate on dropbacks. Hajj-Malik Williams has thrown just four picks all season, and he’s backed by a rushing offense ranked 24th in EPA/rush and 21st in success rate.

Jeanty will have a better game than he did the first time out, but Boise won’t get every break it did in the first game. The Rebels will do enough to force Boise into passing situations, get a few key stops, and crush the playoff dreams of the Broncos. 

Ohio moneyline

Best odds: +110 at BetMGM

It’s easy to write off the Ohio Bobcats after they lost earlier this year to Miami. After all, while the final score was 30-20, the RedHawks led by 24 heading into the fourth quarter.

But how did Miami get to that lead? In short, they got some very fortunate breaks. A personal foul on third and 11 set Miami up for its first touchdown. Then Ohio threw a pick in Miami territory, which was returned across midfield. That drive once again benefitted from a key penalty, setting the RedHawks up for their second score.

Miami’s other two scores came from a one-play drive as Keyon Mozee ran 58 yards for a score and then another one-play drive following another interception by Parker Navarro. The Ohio quarterback wouldn’t finish out the game, and his 88 passing yards were by far the lowest he’s posted this season.

He wasn’t alone, though. The Bobcats played their worst offensive game of the season. Ohio’s first four drives were all three-and-out, and the offense didn’t pick up a first down until 23 minutes into the game. 

But Miami’s offense isn’t very good, and when the offense wasn’t given a short field, there were struggles. The Bobcats held the RedHawks to just 2 of 10 on third down, and aside from the home run carry, they allowed just 92 rushing yards on 29 carries.

Miami is one of the worst teams in college football in regards to scoring points from quality possessions and ranks 121st in rushing success and 93rd in EPA/rush. The RedHawks have gotten by on playing terrific defense, having picked off 11 passes while allowing just seven touchdown throws in conference play.

But Ohio’s defense is terrific as well, and the Bobcats have already shown what they can do to the run game. Navarro is playing much better, especially now that his coaches are getting him out of the pocket and letting him use his legs more. He’s rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games, and he’s scored eight touchdowns on the ground in that span.

Navarro will limit the turnovers, the RedHawks will not get the short fields they enjoyed in the first meeting, and Ohio will get revenge over its rivals and claim the MAC crown.