The North Carolina Tar Heels deserve credit for not letting their entire season splinter as it became increasingly clear that Mack Brown’s time in Chapel Hill was done. A three-game winning streak bridging October to November propelled the Tar Heels to bowl eligibility, but after that, they did indeed fall apart.
Meanwhile, the UConn Huskies surged to end the season, winning four of their last five.
Those opposite trend lines are not enough to decide my UConn vs. North Carolina predictions on Saturday, December 28. However, my college football picks will trust the underdogs before today's kickoff at 11:00 a.m. ET on ESPN.
UConn vs UNC prediction and best bet
Who will win UConn vs UNC?
This will sound harsh, but it is a truth: The Tar Heels coaching staff has had a rather pressing distraction to ponder during bowl preparations. Considering Mack Brown was fired in late November, his assistant coaches need to start looking for their next jobs.
Simply enough, this is a bowl game of differing motivations. While Jim Mora has UConn in its second bowl game in his three seasons in Storrs, North Carolina’s program is breaking apart and fully focused on the 2025 season under incoming HC Bill Belichick.
Those differing motivations are enough to spark trust in the Huskies this weekend.
My best bet
UConn moneyline (+120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Somehow, someway, Jim Mora is building a program at UConn. No, really.
The Huskies last won eight games in 2010. A ninth win would set a mark not seen since 2007. Mora has not yet matched Randy Edsall’s first stint at UConn, but this Fenway Bowl would be another step toward such a claim.
The Huskies notched those eight wins by having a surprisingly impressive defense. It will be the best unit on the field in Boston, ranking No. 58 in expected points added (EPA) per snap against, according to cfb-graphs. And it should be largely intact despite a couple of starters entering the transfer portal.
That defense fares best where it matters most, holding opponents to 3.01 points per scoring opportunity, No. 17 in the country. North Carolina already struggles in that regard, managing just 3.67 points per scoring opportunity, No. 73 in the country, and that failure should be exacerbated by star running back Omarion Hampton's opt-out for NFL draft preparations.
Hampton scored 15 times this season while averaging 5.91 yards per rush. If he was playing this weekend, the Tar Heels’ path to victory would be clear: Lean on him and capitalize against UConn’s somewhat middling rush defense.
But without Hampton, North Carolina’s offense may be doomed.
A program without a head coach and its offensive workhorse should not ever be trusted in a bowl game. Particularly not when the opponent is building a program, should have some amount of home-field advantage, and already was going to enjoy the best unit on the field.
UConn vs UNC same-game parlay (SGP)
UConn moneyline
Under 53.5
Scoring may be difficult for the Tar Heels, as their offense has not found any specific strength this season, even with Hampton in the fold. Losing at least one offensive line starter to the transfer portal will only further those struggles.
In lieu of a team total (currently off the board at BetMGM), taking this Under should suffice. The Huskies are far from a dynamic offense; they should not broach this total on their own.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UConn vs UNC odds
UConn vs UNC live odds
UConn vs UNC opening odds
- UConn vs. UNC spread: UNC -4.5
- UConn vs. UNC moneyline: UConn +155, UNC -190
- UConn vs. UNC Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
UConn vs UNC spread and Over/Under analysis
- UConn opened as a 4.5-point underdog when bowl matchups were announced, and it held there for a few days before beginning to tick down. Two weeks ago it fell to a field goal, and then it slipped to +2.5 after being on the board for nearly a week.
- The total first hit the market at 55.5 and began falling within a day, reaching 54.5 and then 53.5 a week later.
- The total valleyed at 52.5 just before Christmas, bouncing back to 53.5 on Friday.
UConn vs UNC betting trend to know
The Tar Heels were favored in their last three games, losing all three against the spread and the last two outright. In both of those two upset losses, North Carolina was a 2.5-point favorite. Find more college football betting trends for UConn vs UNC.
UConn vs UNC game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
UConn vs UNC latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
UConn vs UNC weather
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