If the Michigan State Spartans want to make a bowl game, they have to win out, and that starts when they welcome the lowly Purdue Boilermakers to town.
It's been a rough season for the Boilermakers, who won their first game of the season and have since lost nine straight, failing to cover in four consecutive games. The Spartans have not had a good year either, but a bowl game is still on the table. Sparty enters off three straight losses, but we like it to snap that streak here.
Read on as I break down my leans and college football picks in this early preview for Purdue vs. Michigan State on Saturday, November 23.
Purdue vs Michigan State predictions
Early spread lean
Michigan State -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
How do you back this Purdue team for the rest of the season? It has virtually nothing left to play for, and oddsmakers seemingly can't make a spread too low. I projected a spread of 14.5, so I'll lean toward a line that makes Michigan State slightly less than a two-TD favorite.
Neither team is good, but there's a firm difference between a borderline average and outright terrible. That difference is highlighted here.
The Boilermakers are going to struggle to move the ball. It's been a one-dimensional offense throughout the season and remains so today.
The running game has been a little better over the last few games. It got some decent production out of Devin Mockobee on the ground against Penn State, and it will continue to look to the ground to generate offense. However, that plays into the strength of the Michigan State defense.
Bad luck for the Boilermakers, I guess. Coming into this game, Sparty ranks 54th in EPA allowed per rush, which is the only metric in which it sniffs the Top 50. It ranks higher than fellow Big Ten teams like Oregon and Nebraska in this department. Purdue failed to cover against either of those teams, including being shut out 35-0 by the Ducks.
I don't have much to say that's overly positive about the Michigan State offense. There's a reason this team has had multiple starting signal callers, doesn't rank even average in most offensive metrics, or puts up many points. However, I don't think it needs to score a ton to cover here, and everyone has been able to move the ball against this Purdue team — and I mean everyone.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Purdue has averaged 7.5 points over its last four games (two of which were shutout losses). That number would be lower except for a few anomalies that allowed it to put up 20 against Northwestern (a game that still went Under this total).
Michigan State's rush defense is its lone strength. Purdue will remain committed to the run game, but at some point, it'll have to take to the air and attempt to attack a passing defense that ranks 115th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback — not good. The problem for Purdue is nobody you can trust to take advantage of that.
Hudson Card will start behind center again for Purdue. With a completion percentage sitting at 59% on the season, it's been a mix of his accuracy issues and a poor wide receiver core. However, even at this point in the season, Card has never really looked overly comfortable in the pocket and often runs through his progressions too quickly. The Spartans have not been good in the secondary, but they can still pack a solid pass rush, which will cause issues here.
Michigan State's offense will have some success moving the ball because everyone does against Purdue. However, much of it will come on the ground, chewing up the clock.
Not only has Purdue ranked in the Bottom 5% of football in EPA allowed per rush, but it has also ranked nearly identical to that in explosiveness allowed. At least for the secondary's sake, you can say it's been able to limit the big pass over half the time this season.
The clock should run early and often in this one when Michigan State has the ball. It should pick up chunk play after chunk play, giving it little reason to throw.
Purdue vs Michigan State live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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