One of the most hyped matchups of the bowl season is here as the Colorado Buffaloes meet the BYU Cougars tonight in the Alamo Bowl.
The uniqueness surrounding this matchup directly correlates to the stars suited for it. In today’s era, for obvious reasons, it’s rare to see a Heisman winner playing in a non-playoff bowl game, but we have that here in Travis Hunter. In addition, a consensus Top-5 NFL draft pick, Sheduer Sanders, will start for the Buffs at QB.
We’re targeting Sanders with one of those props while Hunter will play a role, though we're not taking any specific prop related to the star. Here are my free college football picks on Saturday, December 28th for Colorado vs BYU.
BYU vs Colorado props for the Alamo Bowl
Sanders Under 12.5 rush yds (-115 at bet365)
Retzlaff Over 0.5 INTs (-200 at bet365)- Horn anytime TD (+162 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-28.
Read full analysis of each pick.
BYU vs Colorado Alamo Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Shedeur Sanders Under 12.5 rushing yards
Guess how many rushing yards Shedeur Sanders finished the season with. You’d be on the right track if you guessed a negative number. The future top three NFL draft pick will go into this bowl game with a total of -16 yards on 91 carries, thanks to the sometimes odd college football stat tracking rule of counting sacks towards rushing totals. We’ll use that to our advantage here, though.
The book has long been out on how best to slow down the Colorado Buffaloes, and that’s to use the pass rush to exploit an offensive line that improved as the season went on but is still questionable. Sanders was sacked 38 times, and Colorado finished below average in overall havoc reduction.
The handicap is simply backing the BYU Cougars to get a couple of sacks and put this rushing total out of reach, even if Sanders breaks for a few runs. BYU’s pass rush hasn’t always been great, but it has a few key advantages here, ranking 36th in the country in defensive line yards and 52 in havoc.
This was one of my favorite props to play in 2024, and it’s easy to see why it was a profitable angle (especially in games like this where the spotlight is enhanced and thus artificially boosting these numbers). Sanders finished the season with negative rushing yards in two last games. BYU finished with multiple sacks and did well against Arizona QB Sam Leavitt on the ground, holding him to eight yards. It all bodes well for this prop.
Also, anecdotally, you’d have to think there’s an emphasis on keeping Sanders out of rushing situations to protect his health.
Prop bet #2: Jake Retzlaff Over 0.5 interceptions
I’m not generally thrilled about the prospect of laying -200 on a prop, but it can serve as a good parlay piece or standalone play even at that number.
This price should be closer to -275 or 73% implied probability. The Colorado defense has made rapid improvement compared to a year ago under defensive coordinator Robert Livingston, which is a sentence I’m not sure I thought I’d ever type.
The Buffs' secondary is the strength of its defense and, of course, Heisman winner Travis Hunter is a key cog in that machine. Colorado ranks 26th nationally in defensive pass success and 12th in EPA allowed per dropback. A big part of that is the havoc its defensive line has created as it went into last season, focusing on beefing up the line to generate a pass rush. It worked, too, as Colorado finished seventh nationally in sacks per game.
I expect Jake Retzlaff to succumb to that and throw the ball up for grabs at least once. His high number of turnover-worthy plays and overall questionable decision-making, which led to 10 interceptions this season, will be highlighted here, and not in a good way... except for our purposes, of course.
Prop bet #3: Jimmy Horn Jr. anytime touchdown
It’s funny, but there have been debates about Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. throughout the season.
Earlier this season, Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule said the South Florida WR was actually better than Hunter, a statement that looks foolish now.
Most conversations, however, have centered around who's faster, with Hunter having some friendly debates about it earlier this season in an interview. I’m taking Horn slightly in a race, and we’ve seen that dynamic open-field ability throughout the year with long catches of 47 yards and 67 yards. That’s what this handicap is about. We’re targeting a BYU defense that has ranked 111th in tackling, according to PFF, and Horn should make them pay.
The senior’s production has been erratic due to a combination of injury and LaJohntay Wester's emergence.
Still, there should be an enhanced motivation to get the ball to Horn. The staff has talked glowingly about Horn throughout the week and how they’d like to see him have a nice game to finish his college career. Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur was perhaps the most candid.
“We’ll try to get him the ball this Saturday,” Shurmur noted. “If he does what he can do with the ball, that will be good for us. So we would like to send him out the right way.”
This unique matchup, with Hunter commanding attention, and motivation to get Horn the ball, makes it appealing
More college football picks and odds from Covers
- Free college football picks
- College football odds
- College football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
