The top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers travel into a hostile environment on Saturday when they face the Illinois Fighting Illini in an anticipated college basketball showdown.
The Vols have already claimed some tough wins this season and have a tenacious defense that ranks Top 10 in EFG%. But the unranked Illini will provide a tough test, with a Top 5 EFG% defense and an offense that has a green light from beyond the arc.
My Tennessee vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks explain why Kasparas Jakucionis might be primed to break out on a national stage.
Tennessee vs Illinois prediction
My best bet
Kasparas Jakucionis 3+ made three-point shots (+150 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers are the number-one team in the nation for a reason, but this is a game that could put their perimeter defense to the test. And whether the Illinois Fighting Illini can pull off the upset will depend on how Kasparas Jakucionis performs.
The Lithuanian freshman has come on of late, coming three assists shy of a triple-double against Northwestern before dropping 24 points in an upset win over Wisconsin. Standing 6’6”, he’s been a menace on the pick-and-roll and has posted a 60.8% effective FG% this season.
But while he was a bit hesitant to let fly from the outside earlier in the season, his 3-point rate has picked up quite a bit over the past few weeks. He’s notched 23 attempts against Arkansas, Northwestern, and Wisconsin after having a combined 20 long-range efforts in his first six games.
Jakucionis made half of his eight attempts against Wisconsin after going 6-of-10 from downtown against Northwestern. He’s also connected on 3+ from outside the arc in three of his last four games.
As good as Tennessee has been defensively, the Vols have been fortunate. They rank 352nd in 3-point rate defense, as opponents are attempting 48.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Yet, those teams have connected on just 26.5% of those efforts. In fact, ShotQuality shows their opponents have made just 35.5% of open 3-point attempts, the 26th-lowest in the nation.
Illinois has players at every position who can let fly from outside. That includes center Tomislav Ivisic, whose 44 attempts from deep are tied for second-most on the team.
And while Zakai Zeigler, Chaz Lanier, and Jahmai Mashack are tenacious defenders on the perimeter, the pick-and-roll game with Ivisic and Jakucionis will be heavily utilized to create mismatches.
The Illini rank eighth nationally in 3-point rate, with better than 52% of their shot attempts coming from deep. Jakucionis leads the team at 44.2% from beyond the arc, and Tennessee’s last three Power 4 opponents have each had a player make at least three 3-point efforts.
Playing on their home court will be key for the Illini, and they’re not going to be afraid to let fly from deep in front of an amped crowd.
Tennessee will be punished if it affords Jakucionis the open looks many other players have gotten this season, and at +150, we’ll be poised to take advantage of a terrific value play.
Tennessee vs Illinois same-game parlay
Kasparas Jakucionis 3+ made three-point shots
Chaz Lanier 20+ points
Zakai Zeigler 7+ assists
If not for the terrific odds of our best bet, I would’ve instead gone with Lanier to score 20 or more in this contest. Illinois switches everything on the perimeter defensively, and that will put Lanier in mismatches.
He’s making better than 45% of his efforts off the dribble and is shooting a team-high 48.6% from downtown, and he’s good value to hit the 20-point floor for the fifth time in six contests.
Zakai Zeigler is fourth nationally with 8.0 assists per game, and only one team has held him below seven in a contest this year. That was Virginia in a game that featured the slowest pace of play the Vols have seen all season.
He’s a consistent playmaker, and even the terrific Illinois defense won’t keep him away from getting another 7+ dimes here.
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Tennessee vs Illinois odds
Tennessee vs Illinois live odds
Tennessee vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (-110) | Illinois +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee (-125) | Illinois (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) | Under 147 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Illinois betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Illinois.
How to watch Tennessee vs Illinois
| Location: | State Farm Center, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Tennessee vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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