The No. 7 ranked Florida Gators take on the North Carolina Tar Heels at the Jumpman Invitational tonight.
UNC has dropped out of the Top 25 after losing to every ranked foe it's faced and my Florida vs. North Carolina predictions expect that to continue.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on December 17 from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
North Carolina vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Double Result: Florida — Florida (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Florida Gators have been dominant, going 10-0 with their closest victory coming by a comfortable 13 points against Florida State.
The North Carolina Tar Heels have played a challenging schedule but keep coming up short against quality teams. They lost close contests against Kansas and Michigan State while losing by double digits to Auburn and Alabama. They have only one victory against a high-major school, and that was a close home win against Georgia Tech, which is 3-6 in its last nine games.
Both of these schools have highly-efficient offenses that are spearheaded by a trio of talented guards. However, UNC has been significantly worse at defending the perimeter. The Tar Heels are outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate (14.9%) while ranking 219th in opponent 3-point percentage (34.3%).
Meanwhile, Florida is 95th in opponent turnover rate (19%) and holds foes to 30% shooting from deep. The Tar Heels also have an extremely small lineup while the Gators are 29th in height efficiency per KenPom which has helped them rank 12th in the country in rebounding rate (56.7%).
The Tar Heels have been getting off to slow starts and in each of their four defeats, they trailed by at least eight points at half. They also had an 18-point halftime deficit against Dayton and were up by just a single point at the break versus Georgia Tech, despite entering that game as 18-point faves.
On the other hand, the Gators have been jumping out to early leads and boast an average first-half margin of +12.2 points per game. They are 7-3 against the spread and even in the three games where they failed to cover, they were up at least 14 points by halftime. Expect them to have a lead by halftime and hold on for the victory.
North Carolina vs Florida same-game parlay
Florida moneyline
Florida 1H moneyline
North Carolina team total Over 79.5
I'm betting on Florida to win but I still expect the Tar Heels to fill up the hoop after all they've been putting up points even when they lose. UNC is 21st in the country in adjusted offense which makes it easily the most potent attack that Florida has faced.
Both teams also play at a blazing-fast pace with North Carolina fourth in the country in average possession length (14.5 seconds) and Florida 24th (15.5 seconds).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Florida odds
North Carolina vs Florida live odds
North Carolina vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +3.5 | Florida -3.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina +170 | Florida -205
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Florida betting trend to know
The Gators have covered the first-half spread in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI) while UNC has covered the 1H spread in 15 of its previous 38 contests (-10.70 Units / -24% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Florida.
How to watch North Carolina vs Florida
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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