Two teams fighting to climb their respective conference standings meet on Thursday night when the Phoenix Suns host the Indiana Pacers in a matchup of offensive focused squads.
With neither team playing stellar defense and both leaning on their offensive firepower to win games, I’m expecting a high-scoring shootout in my Pacers vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, December 19.
Pacers vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Over 235.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s another season of the Indiana Pacers doing what they do best, playing fast for the sake of putting up points while looking absolutely atrocious on defense. It’s the reason why Indiana is 64-59-4 betting the Over since last season.
While the Phoenix Suns defense is slightly better — their offense is too — making for a perfect matchup for Over bettors. And it certainly helps that the Suns have two of the most prolific scorers in the league, and NBA history, thriving together.
Behind the play of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (a combined 51.1 PPG), Phoenix is putting up the 12th-most points per game in the NBA (114.0) with the eighth-best offensive rating (116.1).
Even with Bradley Beal’s health up in the air as a game-time decision against the Pacers, Mike Budenholzer’s team has the talent to ravage the Pacers defense. Rick Carlisle’s squad is just 24th in defensive rating (116.3) and allowing the sixth-most points per game in the league (117.3).
It’s been an absolute liability all over the court this season, allowing the fifth-highest field goal percentage in the Association (48%) while putting opponents on the free throw line at an absurd clip - the Pacers allow the sixth-most free throw attempts per game (24.4).
Between Durant and Booker’s ability to win from behind the arc, in the mid-range, or by attacking the rim, Indiana’s defense doesn’t stand a chance. Instead, the Pacers will need to live up to their name and lean on their tempo and scoring - they have the eighth-highest pace in the league (100.0).
Thanks to the combo of Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, and Myles Turner, Indiana is putting up the 11th-most points in the NBA (114.4) behind the fifth-best field goal percentage (48.9%).
That spells trouble for Durant and Co., with the Suns’ defense being just 23rd in defensive rating (116.3) and allowing the 11th-highest field goal percentage (47%).
These two teams are a combined 31-20-1 betting the Over this season for a reason.
Pacers vs Suns same-game parlay
Over 235.5
Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 assists
Kevin Durant remains as ageless as he is prone to tweeting something absurd. When he’s on the court, the 36-year-old isn’t showing any signs of slowing down in his second full season with Phoenix.
While he’s only played in 15 games this year, he’s topped 25.5 points in eight of them. Meanwhile, the Pacers are allowing the most points in the league to power forwards this season (25.12) and Durant’s versatile scoring ability will surely be a mismatch for this putrid defense.
That’s why Tyrese Haliburton needs to play like the All-Star point guard we’ve seen in spurts the last few years. While his assist numbers are down slightly, he's still fifth in the league with 8.6 per game.
He’s also picked up as of late with double-digit assists in his last two games. He’s topped 8.5 in 14 games this year, and should again against the Suns.
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Pacers vs Suns odds
Pacers vs Suns live odds
Pacers vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +6.5 | Phoenix -6.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +220 | Phoenix -270
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened as a 6.5-point home favorite with the line seeing minimal movement as tip approaches.
- Phoenix is one of the worst teams ATS in the NBA at 9-16 while Indiana isn’t much better at 10-16-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 232.5 with it jumping up to between 235 and 235.5 at most books.
- The Suns and Pacers are among the best Over teams in the NBA with Phoenix 15-10 betting the Over and Indiana 16-10-1.
Pacers vs Suns trend
The Indiana Pacers have hit the game total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+15.50 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Suns.
How to watch Pacers vs Suns
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNIN, KTVK |
Pacers vs Suns latest injuries
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