On the eve of the NBA’s second running of the in-season tournament, the Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs will meet in Texas with an eye toward solidifying some much-needed form ahead of the NBA Cup.
Sacramento has taken three of four, including a win over the Suns on Sunday, and will hope it doesn’t fall victim to tired legs against a San Antonio side that's been playing above its record in recent games.
Let's dig in with my Kings vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Monday, November 11.
Kings vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Spurs moneyline (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
We’re still gathering data just a couple of weeks into the season, but to this point, it would appear the Sacramento Kings have proven themselves a capable side on the second night of a back-to-back.
They topped the Jazz back in the second week of the season quite handily, putting forth their best defensive performance of the season, and while they lost to the Raptors in their other back-to-back, their defense remained strong with a 113.8 efficiency rating.
Defense is the name of the game here for two teams that have ranked 11th and 12th in defensive rating, though it’s come in different forms.
Sacramento has allowed the fewest looks per game at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, so while it may rank just 18th in field goal defense, its wings have done a good enough job in staying in front of their men. This is a vulnerable team in terms of defending jump shooters, and that could certainly play a role in deciding this outcome, with the San Antonio Spurs ranking eighth in 3-point frequency.
The Spurs rely on an excellent interior offense, as they’ve struggled mightily to shoot the ball, and that could pose issues for the Kings with their slight weakness inside. The Kings are also the second-best team to this point in scoring at the rim but will be up against the fourth-best rim protection unit on the other side of the floor.
San Antonio sits at 5-5 against the spread to start the year and is 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage, along with two covers in three games at home.
It would appear its defense is better suited for this matchup given Sacramento’s reliance on scoring in the frontcourt, and with the length of Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs should have few issues getting the ball down low where they can shoot on a Kings team that's been brutalized at the rim in a small sample.
The Spurs are playing well, with a 1-point loss to the Jazz last time out marking the third time in five losses their game has been decided by nine or fewer points. Their defense made some strides at the end of last season, and now they’ll have the chance to showcase those improvements against a Kings team that could have some tired legs and is now without a key guy off the bench with an injury to Malik Monk.
Kings vs Spurs same-game parlay
Spurs moneyline
Keldon Johnson Over 13.5 points
Keegan Murray Over 13.5 points
What does the above mean for some of the players on either side? Well, I think we’ll witness some scoring at the rim for San Antonio — but not from the man you’d expect.
Wembanyama has been camped out around the perimeter a ton this year, trying to perfect his shooting stroke to no avail after a bad year from the arc a year ago. It’s actually Keldon Johnson who’s been among the players on the Spurs to shoot the most at the rim — doing so 41% of the time to sit in the 74th percentile of the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
While Wembanyama’s been a machine at scoring in the restricted area, he’s not the man you want to back, given just 31% of his looks come from there. Johnson's hit on his shots around the rim at a solid 69% clip and has now eclipsed this mark in back-to-back games as the Spurs look for the right rotation without Devin Vassell in the lineup.
I’m also going to exploit Harrison Barnes on the other end of this matchup, as he’s once again graded out as one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Keegan Murray will avoid the clamps of Wembanyama as the big man will spend his time on Domantas Sabonis, and that should give him plenty of room to operate down low as well as some cushion to shoot outside shots — something he likes to do despite some poor returns to this point in the year.
The Spurs have struggled to defend the 3-ball, and Barnes has been their biggest liability, so I expect Murray to get his outside shot right in this spot and go Over 13.5 points for the ninth time in 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Spurs odds
Kings vs Spurs live odds
Kings vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento -1.5 | San Antonio +1.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento -115 | San Antonio -105
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kings vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Kings twice moved to 2-point favorites in this game but have since been bet back under the opening line as current 1-point favorites. This line has yet to move to a pick'em, though we’re trending there.
- A hefty 75% of the bets are on the Kings to cover, though the Spurs have taken on 66% of the money.
- The total has steadily fallen all day, but after a move from 221.5 to 221 early on Monday, there’s been no further action.
- The Over has accounted for 74% of the tickets but just 60% of the handle.
Kings vs Spurs trend
The Kings have cashed the first-half Under in 23 of their last 30 games for +15.00 units and a 43% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Spurs.
How to watch Kings vs Spurs
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 11-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, FDSNSW |
Kings vs Spurs latest injuries
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