The Memphis Grizzlies will try to recapture their recent momentum as they host the Sacramento Kings at the FedExForum tonight.
Memphis has been the better team this year and is getting healthier, and that has me backing it on the spread in my Kings vs. Grizzlies predictions.
Read all about it in my free NBA picks for December 5.
Kings vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both teams saw a change in momentum during NBA Cup play on Tuesday night when the Sacramento Kings beat the Houston Rockets, and the Memphis Grizzlies dropped a 121-116 decision to the Dallas Mavericks — breaking a six-game winning streak.
But while coaches and players might think about how those results could impact their teams going forward, we should look at longer trends — and those show Memphis has the clear edge tonight.
The Grizz currently sit in fourth place in the Western Conference with a solid 14-8 record and a strong +8.1 point differential on the season. They've been one of the best offensive teams in the league — ranking fifth in offensive rating — and their 108.9 defensive rating also ranks seventh.
Memphis is rounding into form as it gets all the key pieces back. Both Desmond Bane and Ja Morant are healthy, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a steady presence while others have missed time.
The Grizzlies have also gotten big contributions from two rookies: while Zach Edey is currently out with an injury, Jaylen Wells has been the Western Conference Rookie of the Month for both October and November.
Essentially, the Grizz have been surviving their injuries thanks to a deep roster. Now that most of the parts are back in action, that depth is even more imposing for opponents, who must deal with a wealth of scoring and ballhandling options to go along with a solid defense.
Sacramento has plenty of talent itself, but that hasn’t translated to a lot of wins. The Kings are just 10-12 this year, and they haven’t won two games in a row since early November.
While the Kings have the offensive firepower to stick with the Grizzlies, they don’t play the same kind of defense as Memphis, ranking 19th in defensive rating and allowing more points per game (113.9) than the Grizzlies despite playing at a much slower pace.
The gap may not be as big as the records suggest, but Memphis is the better team in this matchup and will benefit from playing at home tonight. With the spread at just three points, take the Grizzlies to cover.
Kings vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Grizzlies -2.5
Under 240.5
Ja Morant 20+ points
While both teams trend toward the Over, this number is too big an overreaction, with each side regularly playing below this number even when playing at a fast pace.
I’ll also back Ja Morant to score at least 20 points tonight. Since coming back from a hip injury, Morant has hit that total in three of four games and scored 31 points against Dallas on Tuesday. I expect the Grizzlies star to put up big numbers against the Kings.
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Kings vs Grizzlies odds
Kings vs Grizzlies live odds
Kings vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +4 (-110) | Memphis -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sacramento +150 | Memphis -180
- Over/Under: Over 244 (-110) | Under 244 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kings vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies are 14-8 against the spread this year, with the Kings going 8-13-1 ATS so far this season.
- Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.
- The Over has the advantage for both teams, going 14-8 when the Grizzlies play and 12-10 in Kings’ games.
- Sacramento is playing to an average total of 228.4 ppg, while Memphis is averaging a total of 234.7 ppg.
Kings vs Grizzlies trend
Sacramento is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Kings vs Grizzlies
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, FDSN - Southeast |
Kings vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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