Something’s got to give on Wednesday as the Miami Heat put their unbeaten road record to the test against a Phoenix Suns side that has started an impressive 4-0 at home.
Miami’s run into some trouble over the last week — dropping games to the Knicks and Kings — and my Heat vs. Suns predictions expect Phoenix to be the team to cover.
Let’s dig into my NBA picks for Wednesday, November 6.
Heat vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Suns -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Let’s just start by saying this — the Miami Heat are in a world of trouble without Jaime Jaquez Jr. in this matchup.
The wing has played excellent defense in his short time in the NBA, and now the plan of attack against Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal is looking murky.
Nikola Jovic is a more-than-worthy replacement, but Jimmy Butler’s estimated plus-minus on the defensive end has taken a huge hit in the last two years and is a large reason why Miami’s ranked just 12th in defensive efficiency through six games despite an incredibly soft schedule.
The Heat have been at their worst against jump-shooters, ranking 22nd against the mid-range shot according to Cleaning the Glass, and while they’re 11th against the 3-ball, they were exploited from the arc in recent losses.
Miami’s also given up the bulk of its looks from outside the paint, signaling the space has been there for capable shooting sides to win games — and the Phoenix Suns are certainly one. They have taken 3-pointers at the sixth-highest clip in the league and have hit at the seventh-highest rate.
This should be cataclysmic for a Heat team that has already lacked a bit on defense and will now play again without Jaquez. To make matters worse, they’ve significantly trailed the Suns in the rebounding column and are a team that heavily relies upon the deep ball to carry the offense.
Phoenix has been one of the stingiest teams in the league in limiting 3-pointers from its opponents despite ranking a pedestrian 19th in defending the arc, and with such a discernable edge on the glass and on offense, I believe this one should swing too far in favor of the home favorite.
Heat vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns -5.5
Kevin Durant Over 23.5 points
Bradley Beal 3+ threes
I noted the Heat have been abysmal against mid-range jumpers and long balls this year so, I’ll back two men who should benefit from it.
The first is Durant, who’s been one of the most proficient mid-range scorers in the game. Despite a tougher matchup against Jovic, Durant should prove plenty capable of getting home on this number, which he’s hit five times in seven games.
Then, I’ll exploit Butler with Bradley Beal, who should enjoy a nice matchup against a slightly weaker version of the veteran. He’s hit three or more 3-pointers in all but one game this season and is taking 6.4 per game. The Heat love to allow shots from beyond the arc, and Beal — listed as probable — should be out there to fire away.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Suns odds
Heat vs Suns live odds
Heat vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Miami +5.5 (-110) | Phoenix -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +190 | Phoenix -220
- Over/Under: Over 222 (-110) | Under 222 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Heat vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has only moved marginally, dipping to five points before coming back up to the opener of 5.5.
- A firm 71% of the bets and 77% of the money is on Phoenix to cover.
- The total initially jumped up as high as 224 early on Wednesday morning but has since come crashing back down to where it opened. It dipped as low as 221.
- The Over has accounted for 71% of the tickets but a lower 66% of the handle.
Heat vs Suns trend
The Phoenix Suns have hit the fourth quarter game total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+22.30 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Suns.
How to watch Heat vs Suns
| Location: | Footprint Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNSU, KPHE |
Heat vs Suns latest injuries
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