Inter Miami looks to run their unbeaten run to nine matches when they host DC United on Saturday.
Lionel Messi’s status is once again up in the air, but he practiced on Friday and looks set to play. While he may not start, he may not be needed in a match where they’re heavily favored to win.
The road hasn’t been kind to DC United, but they did pick up their first away victory last weekend as they beat Atlanta United 3-2. They’ve kept just one clean sheet and will need to defend better than they did in their first meeting with Miami.
Find out why it’s not their defense that concerns us but rather Miami’s in our MLS betting picks and Inter Miami and DC United predictions for Saturday, May 18.
Inter Miami vs DC United picks and predictions
My best bet:
DC United to score first (+175 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Inter Miami finally ended their streak mid-week. Not their unbeaten streak, which is now at eight matches. Rather, they ended a run where they conceded the opening goal in six straight matches.
Yes, the match ended in a scoreless draw, but that’s beside the point. The Herons had a few good chances of their own early, but without Lionel Messi in the lineup, they were outshot 14-7 on the day.
Orlando put just three of those efforts on goal, though. They wasted multiple chances in the first half in which they should’ve either tested Drake Callender more than they did, or just put it on goal in the first place.
Then again, should we really be surprised? Orlando City is averaging just over a goal per contest, and have just 15.7 xG through their first 12 matches. Despite their offensive weapons, they are one of the lowest-output attacks in MLS.
DC United, on the other hand, are a more formidable threat. While Inter Miami has scored more goals than any team in the Eastern Conference, nobody in the conference has registered a higher xG than DCU’s 24.7 mark this season. They’ve scored 20 in 13 matches, thanks to the lethal finishing of Christian Benteke.
The Belgian forward has bagged 11 goals in 11 matches, outperforming his 9.6 xG and causing problems for opposing defenses. He’s attempted at least five shots in each of his last two starts, and scored a hat trick last weekend against Atlanta.
He led the line for DCU when they hosted Inter Miami back in March. The Herons won that meeting 3-1, one of their few victories without Messi in the lineup. But DC’s only goal came 14 minutes into the match as they opened the scoring.
Inter Miami has allowed the opening goal in 10 of their 14 league fixtures, and I’m not about to pass up a price of +175 for them to do so again. DC United has a dangerous attack that can take advantage of the spaces opened up in Inter Miami’s porous defense. Unlike Orlando, they’re set up better to finish off those opportunities.
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Lionel Messi odds
Lionel Messi’s injury status isn’t hurting his prop odds. You’ll get -150 at best for him to score anytime, with some places pricing him at -200. Messi to have 2+ shots on goal won’t come cheap either, with -150 the best price on offer. You can get even-money for 5+ shots for the Argentine, but that could be a tricky play. If he starts and Inter Miami rolls, he could get taken off early for rest.
As always, I would recommend waiting to see if he starts before risking any money on a Messi prop.
Inter Miami vs DC United same-game parlay (SGP)
DC United to score first
Christian Benteke 2+ shots on goal
Over 2.5
Benteke has six shots on goal in his last four matches, with more on target than off. Only three players have more attempts on goal than his 20 this season, with Luis Suarez leading the league with three more.
DC United’s played six away matches in MLS, and they’ve kept a clean sheet just once at Cincinnati. Inter Miami has scored 3+ goals in five of their last six matches, and should get some goals here with or without Messi in the lineup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Inter Miami vs DC United odds
Inter Miami vs DC United live odds
Inter Miami vs DC United opening odds
- Moneyline: Inter Miami -175 | DC United +340
- Draw: +333
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Inter Miami vs DC United side and Over/Under analysis
- Messi’s status is unknown, but that’s not prevented money from coming in on Miami to win. Their 3-way line price is -188 or more, with the visitors getting +425 to win. The draw pays +400.
- DC United have drawn in four of their six away matches, and if Messi doesn’t play, there could be value on a stalemate..
- The total is elevated to 3.5 goals with the Over slightly favored. There have been 3+ goals in each of DC United’s last four matches, and 4+ goals in four of their last five meetings.
Inter Miami vs DC United game info
| Location: | Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, May 18, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 88F, PoP 6%, 12-21 mph winds |
Inter Miami vs DC United key injuries
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Questionable), Jordi Alba D (Probable), Diego Gomez M (Out), Facundo Farias M (Out), Robbie Robinson M (Out).
DC United: Russell Canouse D (Out), Conner Antley D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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