There’s no better way to kick off a weekend than with some winning MLB bets. So, we’ll try to do just that as we dive into the player prop market for tonight’s action on the diamond.
Alejandro Kirk is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and sportsbooks are still giving us great value on his total bases prop, Triston McKenzie hopes to dominate the A’s again, and we’ll look at how to bac of the best starters in baseball this season.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Friday, June 10, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for June 10
- Kirk Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
- McKenzie Under 4.5 hits allowed (+118)
- Musgrove Over 19.5 outs recorded (-111)
Picks made on 6/10/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Kirk Diggler
As long as sportsbooks keep giving us plus money like this on Alejandro Kirk’s total bases prop, we’re going to keep jumping on the Over. So, that’s what we’re doing when the Kirk and the Toronto Blue Jays open a series in Detroit against the Tigers.
The Blue Jays catcher is quietly becoming one of the best hitters in baseball. There aren’t many players in the game today who can recognize a strike out of a pitcher’s hand better than Kirk. The Blue Jays catcher is striking out in just 9.3% of his plate appearances, which ranks in the Top 2% of all MLB hitters.
Kirk’s ability to recognize strikes means he doesn’t chase, creating a ton of contact — and right now he’s on fire. Kirk is hitting .467 with a 1.352 OPS with eight extra-base hits over his last 12 games. And in the 11 games he's started in that span, he's gone Over 1.5 total bases eight times
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Tigers rookie Elvin Rodriguez. The right-hander has shown flashes of his potential in his first four games, but the transition to the Big Leagues has been tough on him. Rodriguez has an expected ERA of 5.02 and is surrendering a .546 expected slugging percentage to opponents.
The youngster relies mostly on his fastball and slider but hasn’t struck out a ton of hitters so far. That should play well into Kirk’s approach at the plate. Kirk is also hitting .316 when facing righties this season and looks like a solid bet to Over his total bases prop once again.
Pick: Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Guardian of the Galaxy
It looks like Triston McKenzie is beginning to have a breakout season for the Cleveland Guardians. The right-hander has been hot since the start of May and he’ll look to keep dealing when he toes the rubber tonight against the visiting Oakland Athletics.
Now, the 24-year-old McKenzie is coming off a start where he allowed five earned runs. But it was only on three hits, all homers, and he still pitched seven innings. That has been a theme for McKenzie, throwing at least six innings in each of his six starts.
Over that stretch, he has a 2.85 ERA and has surrendered just 34 hits over 58 innings of work. Those game have lowered McKenzie’s expected ERA to 3.93 for the season and is limiting opponents to a .233 batting average.
He’ll get a chance to improve on those numbers on Friday night — because his opponent will be the lowly A’s.
Oakland is the worst team in the majors when it comes to hitting off right-handers. The A’s .206 batting average and .579 OPS when facing righties are both dead last in the MLB. And they've already had problems with McKenzie this season.
They faced off back on May 1, where McKenzie held the A’s scoreless over 6 1-3 innings on just four hits while striking out seven.
If McKenzie can command his fastball against the A’s, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to dominate this lineup once again and go Under his hits allowed prop in the process. It's a number he's stayed Under in nine of his 10 starts this season.
Pick: Triston McKenzie Under 4.5 hits allowed (+118)
No ordinary Joe
Joe Musgrove has been one of the best starters in the Big League this season and he’ll look to keep dealing when he takes the ball for the San Diego Padres in tonight’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies.
In a rotation full of great arms, Musgrove has been the best. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start this season, pitching to an expected ERA of 2.63 and limiting opponents to a .225 expected batting average. He’s also been one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball, pitching at least six innings in all 10 of his starts.
Musgrove now gets an interesting matchup against the Rockies. Not surprisingly, it's another season where Colorado can hit, but not much else. Even so, the Rockies come into this one with a few things going against them.
One, Musgrove is a right-hander. The Rockies rank 20th in OPS and 27th in wRC+ when facing righties this season. And two, they are on the road, where they rank 28th in scoring, plating just 3.08 runs per game.
On top of that, Musgrove made two starts against the Rockies at Petco Park last season and he held them scoreless over 14 innings on just five hits while striking out 22.
Bet on Musgrove to pitch deep into yet another game and take the Over on his 19.5 outs recorded. He's done so four times in his last six starts, including both matchups against the Rockies at home last season.
Pick: Joe Musgrove Over 19.5 outs recorded (-111)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $67.26 on a $10 bet?
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