The Chicago Cubs head to the Bronx to take on the home-run-smashing New York Yankees, who are 8-2 over their last 10 games and 23-7 at Yankee Stadium while leading the league in home runs per nine innings, slugging percentage, and wRC+.
Wade Miley will be making his first start since mid-May and will be on a short leash for the visitors as the Bombers will counter with Luis Severino, who is coming off a one-hit, 10-strikeout scoreless performance in his last start.
Can the Cubs shake a three-game losing streak vs. a team with the best run differential in the American League? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Yankees.
Cubs vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as -260 favorites, hit -270, and have been bet back down to -260 as of Friday afternoon. The total sits at 9 after opening at 8.5. The weather looks hitter-neutral as of this morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 6/10/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Friday, June 10, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, Amazon Prime
Cubs vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (1-0, 3.38 ERA): The veteran lefty missed three scheduled starts and has a real tough matchup with the league’s best offense in a home-run-friendly park. He’s only made three starts this season and has a 10/7 K/BB ratio.
Miley’s leash might not be long after coming off the injury list and his pitcher prop markets are sparse because of it. The Cubs could be digging into their league-average pen early today.
Luis Severino (4-1, 2.95 ERA): Severino has been lights out this season and comes into tonight’s matchup in great form after throwing seven one-hit innings and punching out 10 Detroit batters in his last outing.
The right-hander is limiting batters and sits in the 90th percentile in every expected pitching metric. Severino is pumping a fastball on roughly 50% of his pitches that averages 96.7 mph and batters are hitting .180 off of it.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Jonathan Villar SS (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Questionable), David Bote 3B (Out).
Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Chad Green RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 1-5 SU in their last six interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Yankees
Cubs vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Cubs come to the Bronx for the first time since 2014 and the timing likely couldn’t be worse. The Yankees are coming off a four home run performance versus the Twins, have won eight of their last 10, and lead a competitive AL East by seven games entering Friday night’s series opener.
New York has certainly enjoyed Yankee Stadium this season, as Aaron Boone’s club is a league-best 23-7 at home and has a +2.07 run differential per game. Only the Astros are allowing fewer runs per game at home but the Yankees are also scoring more at home than Houston, which makes the Yankees the most dominant home team in all of baseball.
Cole was brutal, but middle of the bullpen--Luetge, Castro, Peralta--held the line, gave offense time to come back. How different is this offense from last year? Yankees have won 8 games after giving up 5+ runs, won only 12 such games last year.
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) June 10, 2022
Even with an injury-depleted bullpen, Yankees relievers keep chugging along and are still dominant. The handoffs to Miguel Castro, Michael King, and Clay Holmes have produced the league’s fifth-best ERA over the last 14 days and despite all three having pitched last night, the trio should all be available for tonight.
However, the pen might not be busy with Luis Severino getting the ball. He's coming off a scoreless seven-inning performance and has recorded at least 18 outs in four straight starts. He has been missing a ton of bats of late and collected 38 punchouts over his last 31 innings.
Severino and this bullpen will get to impose their will against a Chicago Cubs offense that has been hot, scoring 4.67 runs per game over its last 10 games. However, it hasn’t played since Tuesday, as Wednesday’s game was rained out and the Cubs were off on Thursday. Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last six games following a day off.
Considering Severino has held his opponents to one or fewer runs in three of his last starts, and New York's bats come into tonight red hot compared to the idle sticks of the Cubs, we could certainly see another multi-run victory from the Yankees.
New York is 15-15 ATS at home on the -1.5 run line. If Miley struggles early, the Yankees could be in cruise control as Chicago will struggle to play from behind versus Severino and this bullpen.
Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams have been pretty neutral in terms of profitability on totals. Severino had a stretch of five straight games where the Over hit, but since then, the Under is 3-0. He's given up just 12 hits over his last 26-plus innings and eight of those came in one outing. He's also allowed two or fewer hits in three of his last four starts.
We aren’t very high on the Cubs hitting their team total tonight which sits at 3.5 and leans to the Under.
The Yankees' offense could certainly do plenty of the heavy lifting today for the Over, as it's averaging 6.43 runs per game over its last 10. But if Miley does get a quick hook, the Yankees could see plenty of a rested Chicago bullpen. The Cubs have had a decent bullpen all season and own the league’s best xFIP.
Missing the opening total of 8.5 makes this an easier play (or no play) on the total. The 8.5 would have been tough to lay off but at 9, we’re likely staying away or leaning to the Under. We aren’t expecting much two-way scoring, as the Cubs have been idle for two days and now face one of the most locked-in pitchers in baseball, who will hand things over to one of the best bullpens in the league.
Yes, the Yankees and Aaron Judge are launching long balls at a league-best rate, but Miley isn’t a home run pitcher and the Yankees’ bats will see a rested Chicago bullpen that could need to use its best arms even if they are trailing because of the long layover.
Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
With Miley’s usage unknown, it’s tough to gauge the props from New York's lineup. However, Severino is an easier pitcher to set your watch to.
The right-hander has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He's also recorded a CSW% of 30% or more in each of those turns and currently sits in the Top 18% of the league in whiff rate.
His slider, which he throws 17% of the time, has a 45.8% whiff rate and a 29.7% PutAway rate. If his change-up is on, the cold bats of the Cubs could be doing a lot of guessing, and with a 13 mph difference between his slider and fastball, Severino could continue to pile up the punchouts.
It’s Severino night in the Bronx. He’s been lights out lately. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/uOGdKnS9yR
— NYY Recaps ?? (@NYYRecapsDerek) June 10, 2022
Chicago is striking out at 23% versus RHP and with two days off entering tonight, that number could be a little higher versus a dialed-in starter who has been getting deep of late and isn’t allowing any hits. His total hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5, which indicates just how good he’s throwing right now.
Pick: Luis Severino Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120)
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