MLB Odds: Best Bargains and Biggest Rip-offs for the 2024 Season

Do you smell that? No, I’m not talking your collection of empty beer bottles that’s shamefully remained on display in the corner of your kitchen since last weekend, I’m talking about the smell in the air as winter gives way to spring, meaning baseball season is almost here.

In the build-up to any season, sportsbooks provide us with an absolute avalanche of MLB odds, so it’s time to go shopping! When it comes to MLB futures shopping, we gotta be savvy because whatever we spend will be locked up until the fall. That’s a long time, so I’m here to help you find some outlet style bargains, while I’ll also avoiding some Nigerian prince email phishing-style scams disguised as the Los Angeles Dodgers' World Series odds (hint, hint).

This article could have easily been double the length, but I’ve narrow it down to my favorite bargains and biggest rip-offs in MLB futures betting for the 2024 season.

Best bargains

Rays to win the AL East (+700 at bet365)

Fresh off a 99-win season – the second-most wins in the American League in 2023 –  the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves fourth on the AL East odds board behind the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays to win the division, which is something they’ve accomplished in two of the past four seasons.

Is there anything sexy about this team? No, not really. I’m not even sure if Tropicana Field has indoor plumbing, but what else is new? This is one of the best-coached teams in baseball that always gets a lot out of recycled players who appear to be past their primes, while also capitalizing on young talent on cheap contracts.

The big knock on the Rays coming into the season will be that 2024’s version of the team will be without Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and the disgraced Wander Franco. McClanahan’s absence hurts as he’s a legit ace, but don’t overrate the other guys who won’t be in the lineup. Glasnow is always hurt and appeared in just 37 games for them over the past three seasons, while Franco missed a lot of games last season as well and only ranked fifth in OPS among their everyday players. 

This team didn’t have a lot of star power in 2021 when they last won the division in a 100-win season and I wouldn’t be surprised to a repeat in 2024. It seems like we’re constantly waiting for the wheels to fall off for Tampa, but based on their recent history, there’s no evidence that that’s going to happen, so I’ll gladly jump on these +700 odds.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to lead the league in home runs (+2,300 at Fanduel) 

2023 was a down season for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who had just 26 home runs and as a result, he’s outside of the top ten in this market at most sportsbooks, but there’s still a lot to like.

It seems like he’s been in the league forever at this point, but he’s still just 25 years old and he has a great track record of staying healthy as he’s played in at least 156 games in three straight seasons. Despite the decline last season, let’s not forget that Guerrero Jr is just two years removed from tying for the league lead in home runs when he had 48 in 2021. 

One major improvement to expect from Vladdy in 2024 is a better performance on his home field where he only hit 10 home runs in 2023. This was a shock to many, especially since the outfield in Toronto was reconstructed to bring the walls in. I think 2023’s home results will go down as an outlier especially when you consider he smacked 31 home runs at home in 2021.

Finally, we have perhaps the greatest motivator for many professional athletes – money. The Toronto Blue Jays clearly have lots, as evidenced by their failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, and Vladdy is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026, at the ideal age of 27. If Guerrero Jr can replicate his 2021 success, expect the Jays to try to lock him up early in what could be one of baseball’s biggest contracts.

Shohei Ohtani to win the National League MVP (+950 at Fanduel)

I didn’t expect to find any value in Shohei Ohtani futures markets, but here we are with Ohtani at fourth in the MLB MVP odds. Coming off a 44 home run season where he only played in 135 games, Ohtani will focus entirely on hitting this season as he’ll serve as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ full-time designated hitter following offseason Tommy John surgery, meaning he won’t be pitching in 2024.

This is a man who ranks fourth in home runs over the past three seasons despite the fact that he also was a starting pitcher in 74 games. Now, combine this with the upgraded lineup of going from the Angels to the Dodgers, the possibility of a few dozen extra at-bats, and a handful of games at Coors Field, don’t underestimate the power of a narrative-driven MVP-push for Ohtani if he keeps pace with his hitting numbers from the past few seasons.

He’s undoubtedly the biggest star in the sport since Ken Griffey Jr. Major League Baseball has fumbled the marketing of top stars over the past few decades and having Ohtani win MVP in one of the sport’s biggest markets could elevate the phenom to LeBron James and Patrick Mahomes-type levels.

Justin Steele to win National League Cy Young (+2,000 at DraftKings)

Among National League pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched last season, Justin Steele finished third in ERA and second in FIP, but a good case can be made that he was a bit unlucky as he posted a .317 BABIP despite allowing a low hard contact percentage.

While his 176 strikeouts pale in comparison to the Strider’s and Snell’s of the world he appears poised for another big year. Steele has seen continual improvement in each of his three big league seasons and deserves to be higher than ninth on in this market considering some of the unproven and often injured names ahead of him (hello Yamamoto and Glasnow).

Also helping his case is that the Chicago Cubs could be ready to contend again in 2024. They finished nine games above .500 in the second half of 2023 plus they play in an awful division where he’ll be able to pad his stats vs some light-hitting lineups. Being the ace of a division-leading team would look quite nice on his resume when it’s time to vote.

Biggest Rip-offs

Pretty much anything Yankees or Aaron Judge related

Let’s just group these into one section… Could the New YorkYankees bounce back? Can Aaron Judge stay healthy? Sure, no one should be shocked to see either happen, but you should be spending your MLB futures budget elsewhere because most markets involving the Yankees and Judge are massively mispriced based on what we saw last season.

The Yankees are favored to win the AL East at numerous sportsbooks, they’re in the top five on the World Series odds board and are one of just five teams with a regular season win total in the 90s or higher. This is on the heels of their worst season in a very long time where they completely folded in the second half where they finished five games under .500. 

The Juan Soto addition is obviously massive, but the injury-prone Yankees are already off to a bad start as ace Gerrit Cole will be sidelined for up to two months due to an elbow injury. Yankees pitchers combined to rank 22nd in ERA last season and the team didn’t do much to upgrade its pitching.

Combining all this with a wasted $32 million roster spot belonging to Giancarlo Stanton who completely mailed it in last season, an incredibly competitive division, and their pattern of epically choking in the playoffs, and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for one of the most overvalued teams in the history of MLB futures betting. Juan Soto can only do so much for a team that ranked a shocking 25th in runs scored last season. The Pirates and Royals scored more runs for god sakes and those teams rostered players that belonged in AA!

As for Aaron Judge, don’t waste your money on a guy that can’t stay healthy. Judge is favored to win the AL MVP at many sportsbooks and to lead the AL in home runs but he can’t be trusted to stay on the field after playing in just 106 games last season. He’s been a full-time player for seven seasons and not including the Covid season, he’s only played in more than 112 games three times and has only hit more than 40 home runs twice. 

Yankees fans will call me a hater, and while I still think Judge is one of this generation’s top hitters, the numbers don’t lie and the juice is not worth the squeeze. 

If you’re looking for some betting value with the Yankees, consider taking them not to make the playoffs at +195 odds over at DraftKings. 

Dodgers to win the World Series (+320 at Fanduel)

Another one for the ‘it’s not worth it category’….

It’s a movie we see every year… Los Angeles wins their 100-plus regular season games… then they choke in the playoffs. Do you really want to lock up your money for an entire season just to see this play out again, especially with +320 odds?

There’s really not a whole lot of knocks on this team and they have some reinforcements on the way back with Walker Buhler set to rejoin the team in a few weeks, but when the games really matter, they’ve continually shown a pattern of melting under the pressure. 2023’s postseason “effort” was a flat-out humiliation after they got swept by Arizona, getting outscored 19-6 in the three games. Congrats on winning 100 games in the regular season for the third straight year though. 

You’re much better off sticking to regular-season bets with the Dodgers. DraftKings has them at  +190 to have the league’s best record which is fair value.

Cardinals to win the NL Central (+135 at bet365)

Most sportsbooks have the St. Louis Cardinals edging out the Cubs as the favorite to win one of baseball’s weakest divisions and I’m actually embarrassed for whoever set these odds. 

Sure, the Brewers appear to be packing it in after dealing Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, but the rebuild was ahead of schedule for the Cubs last season and the Reds look like one of the league’s top sleeper candidates.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are coming off a season where they finished 20 games under .500 and if they get off to a rough start in 2024, they could look to pull the plug by unloading their top players as they were in a rare position of being sellers at last season’s trade deadline. 

St. Louis had one of the worst starting rotations in baseball last season and while the addition of Sonny Gray helps, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are nothing more than band-aids.

Twins to win the AL Central (-125 at FanDuel)

I guess the Minnesota Twins are favorites to win this division by default because they won it last year and no one else in the division made a significant splash but being a minus-money favorite to win the division borders on laughable.

There are some decent pieces on the team, sure, but Minnesota didn’t do a good job replacing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Starting pitching was the strength of this team last season but I think a good argument can be made that the Guardians have the better rotation with a healthy Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie both back in action.

I’m not exactly predicting that the Twins have a bad season, but this division is much more of a coin flip than these odds indicate. While Cleveland could bounce back after being held back a bit by injuries in 2023, don’t sleep on the Tigers to be competitive in this lightweight division. Detroit had a winning record in the second half last season and their never-ending rebuild might finally be taking shape. 

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