unplucked_gem

Couldn't resist.  BOL on the 2H plays.

@vanzack

 Many thanks.

This is funny

@vanzack

Riddle me this in earnest as I play exclusively alternate lines based on reasonably solid modeling. 

Am I justified in paying very little attention to +EV, and in my case closing line, since I'm setting my own spread.  That being said I am accepting their corresponding value.

@jesty

 Interesting thread thanks for the positive contribution.

You are correct on being onto something when its crickets.

I was all over the Eagles until I learned they're 1 hit away from Kenny P and that is exclusionary for me.

I grew up a Buffalonian, so I have a tough time with this one based on the teams continuous lack of discipline and coming up small.

I wonder the odds on the never to happen Baltimore vs. Tampa.

I'd like to see your proposed match up and definitely like the odds.

"EV has to be determined by comparing your own number (your calculation of true results based probability) of chances to win vs widely available line."

100 % agree.

Also as Van stated and to your original point important to restate it is not a given that -200 will equate to +165.  The further importance of having your own number and multiples lines to shop from.

We've been suggesting for years not to use covers to find picks but as confirmation of your data.  Clear cut case of 13,000 people finally heeding the advice and tuning in to see what not to play.

The bright side is we won't hear the "7 years" speech for a while.  But the bitcoin and/or .37% survivor pivot is still in play.

@Biscuit

Super sensible

My model has this as a pick em with my book's current line at 4.  

So it should be a no play or Chicago ML, if inclined (which I'm not). 

Situationally subjective handicapping, I agree with you.  Motivation favors Seattle as does away record of 5-1 and league trends for away favs (72.9% S/U and 58.2% ATS).  The Bears have been dreadful and did show much fight the last few times out, especially for a divisional game.

I play numbers / value and not teams to stave off Chicago ML mockery in advance.

@Bruins4Life

@soup-can

Well I've narrowed it down to two things, both equally unjust:

A) reposted a thread containing an argument with the golden child about his fictitious bets.

B) quoted another members post who had a foul word (but wasn't boxed).

Neither of those two warrant a time out and if that's the way it's going to be there's no value beyond the knowledge that the country overwhelmingly rejects both their mindset and methodology 

@vanzack

 Who ya like tonight 

Confused as it seems I am out.  A 6 hour stint in the clink?

Sent the message to have the account deleted (legal@cs-medialtd.com) so we'll keep it going until then.

@Cranky_Hank

 See what I mean, extremely clever.

@benhogan76

 I said clever

Always careful with my words, yet here I am in the box with no explanation.

 Definitely been a shift in the site which has veered from creating a sharper sportsbettor and degraded into a Craigslist like Ad page.

For me it started as an education into the business but turned into entertainment both in sports and politics.

Sadly some cannot separate the two and probably shouldn't have "linesman" powers.  

I've enjoyed my spars with some on here and really appreciate the clever quibs from others but it's about time.  Good luck to all.

@shadowmagic808

 Don't get me started.  2 delay of games missed.  A Buffalo offside missed.  Then not one but two pass interference calls.  They even tried to call a no catch a catch but couldn't sneak past the booth.

This is less a betting rant and more of a I hate my football team for their crappy undisciplined coach continually allowing them to not show up against bad teams only to think they can turn out in the playoffs and get bounced in the first round......bank it.

Give em a few extra days for Christmas would have been better than letting this train wreck play out.