Raiders22

@Logic123

It depends on how you look at it.  Young was horrible last year and finished with a WAR of -1.3  and Murray finished with a WAR of .9

So, both have improved from last year.  I do not think either one is great or near great.  I think the upside for Maye is higher.  

But you have to look at how each matchup works out.  How the team they are playing does against the pass, how their pass rush is.  

Then you have to look at how the QBs have done and how they have done over, say, the last 5 games.  Then look at how they do with pressure or without pressure.  

Usually, a young QB will not handle pressure well and teams will scheme to put pressure on them, even if they are not normally a pressure defense against other QBs.  However, when you look at it, Maye and Young seem to have improved under pressure BUT Murray has gotten worse.

Of course, you have to consider the teams they have played and will be playing.  Then you have to consider the motivation this late in the season.

Maybe some teams that are eliminated from the playoffs might ¡®experiment¡¯.

But a case can be made that Young might have a good game against a division rival that can be thrown against.  

Maye, even at home against a team coming from the West Coast to shaky weather but with a very good pass defense might be hard to like.

Murray against a fairly hot Rams team is hard to support.

@Logic123

Some random numbers to look at:

PASS DEFENSE

LAC 2nd WAR     2.4  PS/PLAY .291

LAR 23RD WAR.   .3  PS/PLAY .185

TB 32ND WAR    -.5  PS/PLAY .127

PASS RUSH

LAC 14th WAR   .8  PS/PLAY .134

LAR 6th WAR   1.2  PS/PLAY .164

TB 27th WAR    .1   PS/PLAY .099

RTG against

LAC 12th 89.6

LAR 19th 95.0

TB 24th 97.3

SACK %

LAC 12th 7.1%

LAR 20th 6.0%

TB 17th 6.2%

PRESS %

LAC 20th 34.0%

LAR 14th 34.8%

TB 19th 34.3%

Then you have the QBs

WAR

Young 21st .8

Maye 23rd .5

Murray 12th 1.4

PE/PLAY

Young 21st .118

Maye 26th .097

Murray 14th .154

Sack%

Young 23rd 6.4%

Maye 28th 7.5%

Murray 13th 5.4%

ANY/A

Young 37th 4.6

Maye 31st 5.2

Murray 16th 6.2

Under Pressure:

Young 5th WAR .5

Maye 31st WAR -.1

Murray 10th WAR .1

THEN you have the last 5 games:

WAR

Young 9th .7

Maye 19th .3

Murray 5th .8

Under Pressure:

Young 1st WAR .4

Maye 15th WAR 0.0

Murray 29th WAR -.1

No Pressure:

Under Pressure:

Young 22nd WAR .3

Maye 25th WAR .2

Murray 3rd WAR .8

The really important thing to me about personal finance is the problem with starting kids out with debt and urging them that they need credit.

The problem with personal finance is that it is not taught in school, like you say, or at home.  Unless, your dad was a CPA or your parents just happened to instill it in you -- then you have to learn it the hard way.  So, therefore, investing is not taught either.

@Rush51

 I would say a 'trade' until around 110-120ish.  After that I will look at it again and consider holding it longer.  I had a big position in Costco earlier and now have sold it.  I still have FSTA, an ETF that has both.

But right now I see the edge to be in WMT.  The dividend yield is a little better.  But even though Costco is growing better, the valuation right now with Walmart looks better to me.  I do not have the exact figures but something like 45 P/E to 30 P/E.  

I also anticipate inflation and economic things I consider to benefit WMT more in the next 6-9 months or so.

Costco did real well and I could have held it I think.  But I took the profit and switched to WMT for them to catch up at a great time.  But still have the FSTA with COST.

I do not think I have ever looked at buying TGT.  FSTA has a very small percentage in it.

I agree.  A good start for a thread.

I think the way I would look at it is the investing is more along the lines of good growth stocks and funds.  Where you have a good mix and plan to let others 'manage' it for you inside of a fund, except for the great stocks that will 'manage' themselves through sheer demand and control of a market.

I think trading is along the lines of categories of buying 'potential' stocks like a lot of the AI startups things or depressed stocks.  Then some subsets of trading are the scalping when you see good or bad news or opportunities.  Then the day-trading is along the lines of trading the volatile movers everyday.

I have been doing all of it for so long that it is easy to assume everyone differentiates the various areas well enough.  But they are all very unique things in reality.  I know folks that are specialists in one area and not even interested in others at all.

They all can take different mindsets to handle correctly.

@Rush51

 Good info.  Interestingly, I just started a large position of WMT a few weeks ago and added a large chunk Monday.

If you are going to be an investor in single stocks you need to know how to read the financial statements, understand what analysts are saying, research a company¡¯s prospectus.

If you are going to be a trader you need to know how to read a chart and know what the news and the sentiment of the stock is.

If you are going to scalp or day-trade, learn the LEVEL II, learn the LEVEL II, learn the LEVEL II.

Some firms used to make you learn to trade without charts to start with, you could only use the LEVEL II.

Whatever, your style or method is going to be ¡ª get very, very familiar with it.

Some folks will advocate ¡®paper-trading¡¯ to start.  I see where it can be a good idea.  But I really do not think it is necessary.

I think if you are in the right place financially and mentally, you will be fine.  Just start with the amount that you are comfortable with and money-manage well and learn the job.  Because you should treat it just like a job if you want to be successful.

The ¡®reason to sell¡¯ should be once something changed.  Just as they say in a hedge for a parlay or a buyout in a sports bet.  If the reasons you got in it in the first place have not changed, then you should still have the trade.  If something has changed, then you should look at it again and decide on getting out before your stop loss was hit or your profit goal was reached.

Otherwise, there is no ¡®reason to sell¡¯.  It will sell itself once it reaches the profit goal or the stop loss.  It can be argued that if you do not have the patience or the time to wait that you can also use a set amount of time to simply get out of the trade also.

The last thing I would add is that it can be said the latest ¡®bull market¡¯ really started back in late 2022.  It can be said that it might all be part of a longer term ¡®bull market¡¯.  For that matter, the whole market forever can be called a ¡®bull market¡¯.  So, I am not sure we are on the ¡®tail-end¡¯ of it.

But if you are an investor, or a trader, and do not expect some dips or bear markets ¡ª then you are not ready for the markets.  I think most do realize they are inevitable. 

Now, a ¡®trader¡¯ is a whole different situation.  

You should only become a ¡®trader¡¯ once you are fully ¡®invested¡¯ for your future.

This is the type of trading that needs to have a solid plan as far as entry and exit points in place.  This will be something you have researched or someone else has.  This could be something you read about or someone you trust recommends.  It can even be something you are simply interested in or know something about in an industry or a certain product. 

This type of trading can be day-trading, scalping, speculative, or even an out-right gamble.

As long as you are out of debt and fully invested for retirement, this type of trading is fine.

But you should study up a little bit on picking entry and exit points and why.

Once you make a trade like this, you should always, always, always have a stop loss in place.  Depending on the type of reasoning you have for buying it you should have a take-profit point put in place as well.

Basically, you ¡®invest¡¯ for your future and retirement; you ¡®trade¡¯ for profit.  It can be simply a hobby, like most folks with sports gambling.

But it will always come down to a person¡¯s risk tolerance, time frame, goal with the particular trade, and whether any of those change along the way.

So, while it may be good to have a ¡¯strategy¡¯ with trading, I do not think it is separate from the ¡®buy idea¡¯ as much as always a part of the whole package.

I also do not think a ¡®bear market¡¯ should affect an investor much at all.  You have to have the mindset that stocks have always recovered and will continue to go up eventually.  Yes, it might frighten someone if the market dips and they are close to retirement.  But they should know this might happen and be very prepared after 30-40 years of investing.

A ¡®bear market¡¯ should not bother a trader that much either.  It can be frightening.  But if you have a stop in place, that is the loss you were willing to take at the beginning of the trade anyway.  Then you can reassess.  If you still like the trade and you did not get stopped out, you can even see it as being on sale and an opportunity to add to your position.

A trader can make money in any type of market ¡ª bull, bear, or sideways.

¡°Plan the trade, and then trade the plan.¡±

If you do not have a plan for a trade, or a reason to be in a trade ¡ª then you really do not have a trade ¡ª but a gamble.

I think this is good, overall general advice.

But I would like to add a bit to it.

I think ¡®investor¡¯ needs to be defined, because they are not all the same and cannot really be grouped together.

You can be a ¡®novice¡¯ as an 18-year old university student, a 28-year old raising a family with a mortgage, a 48-year old that has no debt and is ready to start doing something besides just his 401k, or a 68-year old retiree.

To me, an investor is someone that is planning to hold something for a long time as a growth opportunity and/or income, like for dividends.

A trader is someone that is looking for ¡®buy ideas¡¯ and only planning to hold a stock for a short period of time.

I think investors will mostly look at fundamentals, whereas, traders will be more interested in the technical side of the stock.

To me, everyone should be ¡®invested¡¯ in their company 401k if available.  They should be maxed out in this or, for sure, make sure they get the maximum company match.

They should have it in a good S&P type fund.  That will be fine for any person to grow long term retirement money if they are starting a job.

This investing does not require an exit point.  It only requires an entry point and DCAing along the way with every paycheck.

If someone is going to ¡®invest¡¯ on their own, they simply need to mix in some good longterm growth mutual funds or ETFs that are well diversified.

So, the ¡®plan¡¯ for investing is nearly always the same:  set it and forget it.  Because you are ¡®investing¡¯ for the longterm and for retirement.  You will need to reevaluate your portfolio once or twice a year if you want to keep it in some sort of balance.

@Rush51

 I typed a large response to this and meant to post before the games and then went jogging.  Guess, you addressed some of it.  But I will post anyway.

@cave0707

 Good stuff.  I like to see discussions on this sort of thing.

@jerseyj24

Thanks.  

See the guy posted the stat before that week, so was accurate at the time.

I saw this someone posted.  Have not checked it out to see if these are the only ones for sure.  But it seems weird and reasonable because the Chiefs are winning so many close games.

Giants (2-13)

Raiders (3-12)

Jets (4-11)

Patriots (3-12)

Chiefs (14-1)

BOL today VAN! 

PIT +114

PIT U46 -109

BLT -6.5 -105

J. Warren O19.5 rec yds -113

Mahomes at least 250 passing yards -141

Mixon U62.5 Rush yds -114

Stroud U251.5 passing yds -114

@joe pockets

 No.  The poster is wrong about all of that. 

@joe pockets

No.  I am saying all of the stuff that was posted in that post is obvious Leftist talking points and has nothing to do with what I was addressing to you.

That user just does that to try to swerve the topic to other issues to try to avoid a losing stance. 

The whole idea of tax-cuts has been addressed many, many times elsewhere.  That posted is wrong about it and always has been.

The questions you just asked about that particular post has nothing at all to do with what was said.  

@joe pockets

No sir.  I was addressing your direct questioning of Musk.  Those were the issues that he is supposedly looking into addressing.

My question is still the same.  What are your thoughts on those?

@artdb

 I think it is still the plan.  Nothing has changed for you.  

"Plan the trade and then trade the plan."

I am thinking there will be a drop at some point in NVDA .  So, maybe AVGO does as well.  But in the meantime you had a great JUMP in AVGO and it might still make a move back to 250 or even 280ish range.  So, there is a good chance your plan is still correct and NVDA may bottom out between now and sometime in JAN.

But if you are worried about 'losing' some of those great profits you just made, just put a trailing stop in place and lock them in.  

Another thing, depending on your tax situation, at least you will not have to worry about those profits this tax year.

You cannot regret every 'missed' play or 'mis-timed' play.

But when Henderson was traded to Toronto, Erin was devastated. She wrote a letter to Bay Area newspapers that read, in part: "My friend Rickey Henderson was traded last Saturday from the Oakland A's to the Toronto Blue Jays. I know Toronto is a long way away from here and my mom and dad won't let me move there.... I asked my mom to take down all my Rickey posters and pictures in my room. They make my heart hurt too much to look at. My mom said that the hurt won't be so bad later and I'll be able to stop crying when I hear his name. If someone out there knows Rickey would you please tell him that the girl with the signs in the left field corner of the Oakland Coliseum misses him very much and would you tell him I said goodbye. I didn't even get to say goodbye." 

Erin's letter was faxed to Toronto and shown to Henderson, who cried when he read it and said, "The fans and press might be on me, but I knew I could always count on that little girl." When Henderson went onto the field in Oakland on Aug. 30 in his Blue Jay uniform, one of the first things he did was seek out Erin. He gave her a hug and a kiss, and promised her she would always be his Number One fan. He also told her that if the Jays made the World Series, he would steal a base or hit a home run for her.

That Henderson should be so tender and thoughtful might strike some people as surprising. After all, he is baseball's alltime leader not only in stolen bases (1,082 through Saturday) and leadoff homers (63) but also in contract pouts (too numerous to mention). Rightly or wrongly, he has come to stand for the selfish ballplayer.

But over the years Henderson has maintained a wonderful contact with the fans. Even in the on-deck circle, he will turn away from the field to carry on conversations with spectators, often to the consternation of teammates who worry he might get hurt by an errant ball or a hustling catcher.

There can be no doubt that the relationship between players and fans has never been more strained. The fan says, He makes too much money, he has no loyalty, he doesn't sign autographs, and he's no role model. The player says, I don't make enough, the fans have no loyalty, they're probably going to sell my autograph, and don't ask me to raise your kids.

But into the breach step a nine-year-old girl and a 34-year-old superstar, and suddenly the smoke of the firecracker, the shrieks from the stands are dissipated. Henderson has provided baseball with a lot of great moments during his 15-year career. Last week he provided it with a much-needed nice one.