OldHammy

I just took a ML parlay at 2.2/1 on Penn State/Texas/Oregon.  Since OSU/Oregon is the last game played it will also give me a possible hedging opportunity, perhaps with a live bet during the game, should Texas and Penn State take care of business and win their games as expected.

Looked like a lock 3/1 yesterday but 5 pt lead with a minute left and a sure under turned into an OT over with a long desperation 3 pointer followed by a TO on the inbounds pass with 10 seconds left, a subsequent foul and two made throws.  Hmmm.

Iowa State/Morgan State under 161

Morgan State is #348 in Ken Pom's rankings, #296 in offensive efficiency and #357 in deficiency.  Also, one of their better players missed the last game with an injury and his status is questionable.  Iowa State has played 4 other cupcakes at home.  They beat #364 Miss. Valley State 83-44, #346 IU Indianapolis 87-52, #305 Jackson State 100-58 and #300 Nebraska Omaha 83-51.  Their normal rotation is 7 players with at least 4 getting 30+ minutes.  In all 4 of these games they had 9 with double digit minutes, none with more than 28 and cleared the entire bench with everyone getting at least 3 minutes.  This is the final "scrimmage" before the home opener at Colorado...a clear look ahead spot with everyone getting playing time.

Rider +19 at NC State

NC State is not a great shooting team.  They are #241 from 3 pt range, #150 from 2 pt range and #253 from the FT line.  They have not been world beaters against other weak teams either.  They beat #362 Coppin State by 10 at home December 10 prior to a trip to Kansas and a 15-point loss.  They also scraped by at home by 12 and 9 over two teams ranked #280 and #255 by Ken Pom.

I think rebounding will keep Rider in this game.  They've played three really good teams away and out rebounded them all (#15 UCLA 38-35, #44 Iowa 35-33, and #49 Villanova 33-32...Villanova is #31 in the nation in rebounding %).  NC State is #258 in getting only 48.8% of available rebounds.  If Rider can control the boards they should stay within 19.  This is also a possible look ahead game as the next one for NC Stae is the conference opener.

Can't find any sides I like today -- have 4 totals.  I'll be briefer with the rationale.

Md/Syracuse under 156 at 12 noon est at Barclays Ctr. Brooklyn

Key player Starling hurt and a gametime decision for Syracuse after missing last 3.  Syracuse has scored 70, 64, 71, 66 and 74 against top 100 teams they've played.  Maryland is outstanding defensively, #12 in defensive efficiency.  Syracuse is #345 in 3 pt fg% and Md. allows opponents to shoot only 29.8% from deep.  Syracuse is also terrible from the FT line at 69.8%. Syracuse should wind up in the low 60s and Maryland will likely have to go over 90 to reach this big total.  Might want to sprinkle some pizza money on a parlay with Md -12 1/2 and the total.

GT/Duke under 145 at GT

GT has scored 69, 58, 61, 65 and 60 against the top 100 teams they've played.  Duke is #2 in defensive efficiency.  GT is not too bad defensively at #101.  GT is a poor shooting team and Duke is not a great shooting team either (#112 in 3 pt %, #78 in 2 pt % and #117 from the FT line).

Fairfield/Monmouth under 145 1/2 in a sicko special that isn't even on ESPN+.  Neither team is in a hurry offensively at #183 and #253 in average length of possession.  They are both bad shooting teams.  Fairfield shoots 30.9% from deep, 45.7% from 2 pt range and 68.6% from the FT line.  Monmouth shoots a decent 34.5% from deep but a horrid 38.2% from 2 pt range and a decent 74.7% from the FT line.

ODU/UL Monroe under 145

Neither runs a fast-paced offense #152 and #178 in average possessions per game and both are bad shooting teams.  ODU shoots 29% from 3 pt range, 46% from 2 pt range and a terrible 61.5% from the FT line.  UM is just about as bad at 29.5% from 3 pt range, 46.9% from 2 pt range and 67.7% from the FT line.

@Verdict

 Thanks.

One pick today -- Kennesaw State +15 at Santa Clara

Live by the 3 and die by the 3 is the theme here.  6/5 Santa Clara gets 36% of its points from 3s.  In their 6 wins they've shot 39% from beyond the arc but in their 5 losses they're a woeful 23.9%.  That plays right into one of the biggest strengths of Kennesaw State, a well coached team under Antoinne Pettway, Nate Oats former assistant at Alabama who is in his second year there.  They recently shocked Rutgers and knocked them out of the AP top 25 in a huge upset and the first ever program win against a ranked team.  In that game they held Rutgers to 39% shooting from the field.

Kennesaw is the #5 team in the country in 3 pt fg defense, holding opponents to 26.9% shooting from beyond the arc.

Santa Clara is a decent team at #79 in the Ken Pom rankings.  Neither team is a great shooting team.  Santa Clara shoots 34% from deep vs Kennesaw's 33%.  Santa Clara hits 51.5% of their 2 pters vs Kennesaw's 49.2%, while Kennesaw is just a shade better than Santa Clara from the FT line, 76.6% to 75.4%.  Santa Clara is a slightly better rebounding team but not by much.  Kennesaw's biggest weakness is TOs but Santa Clara also is pretty bad.  Kennesaw averages 3.4 more TOs per game.

Ken Pom has Santa Clara by 11.  If Kennesaw takes care of business at their specialty of defending the three they should keep this game within 15 points.

Tonight in Conf. Opener  7/4 Villanova -8 1/2 at home vs 5-6 Seton Hall

Two teams heading opposite directions. Villanova opened season losing 3 of 1st 5 but come in to conf, opener on 4 gm win streak including 8 pt home win vs #24 Cinc and 29-point win over #118 Temple.  Seton Hall lost heartbreaker by three Sat. to #79 Rutgers on buzzer beater long 3. 63-66.  Prior to that lost by 9 at home to #92 Oklahoma State and 3 gms back a bad 12-pt loss at home to #255 Monmouth.  Sandwiched in was 1 hm 11 pt win against one of the 5 worst teams in BB, NJIT.

Stats broadly favor Villanova despite a stronger #71 schedule than Seton Hall's #102.  Set Hl is woeful offensively, #356, averaging 60.4 ppg on 35.9% 3 pt, a terrible #342 (43.6%) from 2 pt range and an even worse FT shooting percentage of 59.4%.   Villanova averages 79.1 ppg.  They are #9 from 3 pt range (40.5%), #78 from 2 pt (55.3%) and a sparkling #14 from the FT line (79.9%).  Seton Hall is very effective defensively, holding opponents to an average 60.4 ppg but Villanova is good as well at 66 ppg. 

Villanova also protects the ball better, although not great.  They commit 17.6 TOs per game but Seton Hall is #319 with 20.7 TOs a game.  Villanova should win the rebounding battle as well.  They are #17, grabbing 56.1% of available rebounds vs Seton Hall's 399 rank at 52.3%.  

You have to defend home court in conference games and the first one is top priority -- Nova should do that comfortably. 

@Robards

 Better wait on the ty  :-)

At Fan Duel Drake +3 1/2 against KSU.

Ken Pom has this "semi-home" for KSU in Kansas City, but I'd say neutral since it's a 2 hr bus ride from Manhattan and 2 hr 45 min. from Des Moines.

Similar strengths of schedule (#115 for Drake and #95 for KSU).  The results tell the tale.  Drake comes in undefeated with 3 easy wins over top 100 teams (#62 Vande 81-70, #93 Fla Atl. 75-63 & #96 Miami 80-69, all at neutral sites).  

KSU is 6/3 and lost all 3 they've played against top 100 teams (65-76 vs #59 LSU at home, 65-67 vs #66 Liberty at a neutral site and 71-88 at #14 St. Johns).  They've yet to prove they can win a big game with their wins coming against #364, #362, #346, #215 and #144, 3 at home and two at neutral sites.

Drake plays at about the slowest pace in the NCAA although you couldn't tell that from the Miami and Vande scores.  They are roughly equal offensively and in shooting the ball but Drake is significantly better defensively at #45 in defensive efficiency.  KSU protects the ball better but Drake is #21 in the country in creating TOs so TOs are probably a wash.

Drake's big advantage is they are the #7 team in the country in percentage of available rebounds gotten (57.0%) vs KSU which is #102 at 52%.  Drake does it against the good teams too.  Their rebound margin against Miami was +14, +9 vs Fla. Atl. and +17 vs Vande.  KSU was -18 in the home loss to LSU, the #120 ranked team in percentage of rebounds they get.  It's tough in a low-scoring game to give 3 1/2 points while likely giving them more opportunities with a wide gap in rebounding. Could be wrong team favored here.   

Strength vs weakness here.  TT #18 offensive efficiency & OR is #339 defensive efficiency.  TT #4 3 pt fg% (40.6% vs OR at #301 in defensive 3pt fg percentage).  TT #30 in 2 pt fg % and OR #341 in 2pt fg% allowed. Both teams great from the FT line (#13 and #16 at 80% & change) which should contribute to scoring.

TT has played 5 games at home against Ken Pom teams in the 200s, beating them all handily with game totals at 155, 151, 145, 162 and 153.  OR played at #24 Ole Miss (xlnt off. team) and lost 68-100.  At #113 Belmont the total was 170 and at #257 Tulsa they hit 161.  Two games back they hooked up with Northern Arizona at home and totaled 159.

Gimme the total over 148

Home dog Illinois State +2 1/2 over St. Louis.

Their offensive/defensive efficiency stats are comparable.  St. Louis is #117 in offensive efficiency and Ill. State is #142.  Both are not good defensively at #227 and #228.  They are dead even in rebounding percentage.  There are three stats that jump out and all three favor Ill. State.  St. Louis is #225, averaging 18.6 TOs a game while Ill. State is #100 at 16.3.  St Louis is #124, shooting 34.9% from beyond the arc while Ill. State is a strong #39 at 38.3%.  Neither defends the three well but St. Louis is terrible at #298.  The most dramatic discrepancy is at the FT line.  St. Louis is almost dead last at #339, shooting a woeful 63.5%,  Illinois State is #7 in the nation at 80.8%.  I'll trust those three factors to bring the dog home a winner.

Two more today in addition to the sicko special.  UCLA +4 vs Arizona in Phoenix.  9/1 UCLA on a 7-GM win streak including the latest, a 2-pt win at surprising Oregon who bested a great field to win the inaugural Las Vegas Invitational.  They¡¯re,#4 in Ken Pom¡¯s defensive efficiency ratings and they create havoc on that end of the court.  Arizona has struggled against good teams ¡ª 0/4 against 4 of Ken Pom¡¯s top 50 teams they played including a 14-point home loss to Duke.  Arizona¡¯s best win is at home vs Ken Pom¡¯s #192 So. Utah team.

Gimme Kentucky/Louisville under 159.  Both teams are very good defensively and this is a heated rivalry game where intensity will be high.  Forget 3s for Louisville, they are #341, shooting 27%.  Neither team shoots FTs well at #129 and #190.  Kentucky has held 8 of the ten teams they played to 72 pts or less, including Duke and Clemson.  Louisville held Indiana to 61, WVU to 62 in regulation, Oklahoma to 69 and Duke to 76.  Louisville also lost at home to Mississippi 63-86.  Kentucky lost one guard Kriisa to a leg injury 3 games back and their PG went down with a sprained ankle two games ago and missed the last game.  He¡¯s questionable today.  I don¡¯t know how these two get to 159.

First of the year for me is a sicko special.  Jacksonville St. -2 1/2 over Utah Valley State.

The Utah Valley coach must be crazy.  Here¡¯s their saga since late November.  November 27/28  in Birmingham, Ala lost by 8 to hometown Samford and then by 20 to North Dakota State.  Then back to West Coast 12/3 for a loss to Stanford.  Then turn right around and go back East for a 17-point loss at JMU 12/7. (Jacksonville State lost to JMU in November by 6).  Then back home (an hour from Salt Lake City) for a lone home win in this stretch 12/11.  Then it¡¯s back across the country to Jacksonville, Ala, (14,000 people, an hour+ from Birmingham) for this game today.  I can¡¯t imagine they¡¯ll have much gas in the tank.

The stats also favor Jacksonville.  They shoot 3s at 37% vs 32% for Utah Valley.  They shoot 2s at 55% vs 52% and FTs is worse, 76% vs a very bad 69%.  Utah Valley also turns it over twice more per game.  They are both good rebounding teams with a slight edge to Jacksonville (they get 55% of available rebounds vs 54% for Utah Valley).

@OldHammy

 Oops Ken Pom had Bama +5

2/0 today and on the season here.

Bama is still #1 in adj. off eff. At Ken Pom.  Defense and TOs have been their issue so far.  But they had Purdue in trouble most of the game last Saturday in Toronto until Eden put them away almost single-handedly.  Bama¡¯s entire team is a bunch of slender guys (including their 6¡¯10¡± and 6¡¯11¡± guys) who can handle the ball, get out and run and shoot the three.  They simply had no answer for a 7¡¯4¡±, 300 lb Edey who will simply move you out of the way or shoot over you.  But despite the high score they played excellent defense on the rest of the team, battled hard all game and would have beaten almost any other team that night.  They¡¯re really desperate for a big win and the next game is in Phoenix against #1 Arizona.  Creighton is a bit suspect with their best win against Ken Pom¡¯s #26 Colorado State.  They just lost to Colorado 69-48, shooting 34% from 2 pt range and 21% from 3 pt range and getting beat on the boards by 9.  Alabama has been tested with a much better schedule.  They shoot it about equally except Bama is significantly better from the FT line.  Ken Pom has it Creighton +5.  I¡¯ll take the extra two on a very desperate and talented Alabama team.

One more early Saturday play -- Ohio State if -3 1/2 or better at home vs UCLA.  Both teams have comparable schedules.  UCLA started the season with 3 home wins against 3 of the worst teams in the country (Ken Pom's 338, 346 and 353).  Their biggest win is over the #250 ranked team at home.  They've lost to the three good teams they've faced, Marquette, Gonzaga and last Saturday's game all the way across the country at Villanova.  Now they head back across the country to face an angry OSU team off a very disappointing road loss to a bad shooting Penn State team.  They were 8/1 going there, led the game throughout and had the lead to 18 in the 2nd half, collapsing in the 4th quarter 16-29 to lose by 3.  

UCLA is only #85 in adjusted offensive efficiency while OSU is #14.  UCLA is awful shooting it at #210 in 3 pt fg% (32.3%) and #254 in 2 pt fg% (47.8%), while OSU is #9 in 3 pt fg% (40.4%) but #153 in 2 pt fg (51.2%).  OSU is #14 in ORB% but #153 in DRB%, while UCLA is #149 in ORB% and #82 in DRB%.  They are just about equal in TOs.  This seems like a tough spot for a poor shooting, suspect UCLA team against a much better shooting OSU team in a bounce back spot after a bad loss.

Early Saturday pick: Tex A&M down to +9 in semi-neutral site game against #1 Houston at Toyota Center Arena.  Both teams are physical with a big emphasis on defense and rebounding, and both have xlnt coaches who know each other well.  Points will be hard to come by - Ken Pom has it Houston 72-63.  Both are xlnt in adjusted offensive efficiency with A&M #8 and Houston #18, but neither is in the top 100 in either 2 pt or 3 pt fg%.  The one big shooting advantage is FTs where A&M is not real good at #102 (73.3%) but Houston is awful at #322 (64.8%).  There is a big disparity in schedule strengths with A&M at #15 and Houston #269 and that could be impacting some of their stats.  Houston is one of the few remaining unbeatens but their biggest win is #37 Utah.  A&M is a veteran team of Juniors and Seniors with a lot of weapons.  They have 3 losses against very good teams but have 7 wins including a win against Ken Pom's #27 Ohio State away and #19 Iowa State on a neutral court.  A&M has 6 different guys who have already gone for 18 pts in one or more games.  One of their key players (Radford with a best game of 21 pts) was out for three games with an injury but returned in shortened minutes in the disappointing 6-pt home loss to Memphis the last game.  He should bet at full strength for this one.  9 guys average double digit minutes and two more average 8 and 6 min. each.  They have the preseason SEC player of the year in Wade Taylor who had a rare off game with 9 points in the Memphis loss.  They turned it over too much, played uncharacteristically sub-par defense, got beat on the boards and shot it poorly.  Yuk.  Buzz Williams should have them fully focused with a chance to end Houston's unbeaten streak against a less-than-challenging schedule.  They should keep it close here in a hard-fought physical battle.

@skoonr3

 Glad to be of help.

Tomorrow night in Tuscaloosa we will have on one end of the court a Mississippi State team that stands at 1/6 in the conference with the one win at home 64-54 against arch rival Mississippi.  They are 0/3 on the road in conference.  Believe it or not they have not shot even 40% from the field in any one of the seven games.  39.6% is the highest they've gotten and they've been consistently awful, shooting a combined 36.7% over all 7 games.  Not only that they are the worst FT shooting team in league games at 53.7%.  In those 7 games they've managed but 67, 50, 53, 64, 59, 59 and 53 points.  

In game 1 of the SEC season Alabama started 3 freshman in the opener at Mississippi State.  They committed 19 turnovers, giving Mississippi State a substantial number of "free" points and they still only reached 67, shooting just over 36% from the field.  

On the other hand Bama is undefeated in SEC play and undefeated on the season both at home and in true away games.  They lost two games in neutral court appearances in the pre-conference season.  At home in the conference they've crushed Mississippi 84-62, walloped Kentucky 78-52 and ran LSU out of the gym by 40, 106-66.  They've also improved significantly on the defensive end and are the #1 team in conference games in defensive efficiency, ahead of national overall leader Tennessee.  Their offensive efficiency in conference games is also #1.  Turnovers are way down the last few games.  78 points is the least Bama has scored in the 7 SEC conference wins.   Bama is also 7/0 against the spread in SEC games, covering the spread by 3, 15, 25 1/2, 13 1/2, 21 1/2, 11 and 9.  That's not the victory margin, that's the margin over the spread.

I don't know how anyone can expect Mississippi State to tally even 60 points in Tuscaloosa and I would certainly expect Bama to at least get to their lowest offensive total of any SEC game thus far, 78.  Ken Pom has this game at Bama -14, ESPN Power Ratings have Bama -15 and Sagarin has Bama -15.74.  I took Bama -11 1/2 when it opened.  The last I saw the line was -12.  This is one of the strangest lines of the year and I've not seen a line that different from all three of those sources.  So far Bama has come out aggressively in every game, including one two days after one of their now ex-teammates was arrested for capital murder, a huge shock to everyone on the team.  They have been relentless regardless of the circumstances or what team they were facing.  I don't know how anyone should expect a terrible shooting team, who lost at home 78-67 to Bama is going to Tuscaloosa and the game turns out essentially the same as the first game at Mississippi State.  Mississippi State has spiraled downward while Bama has continued to improve as their freshmen have matured.

Mississippi +9 1/2 at Arkansas

Ark's weak pre-conf slate included losing the only game against a top 38 team.  They've lost 2 starters including their leading scorer.  They're 1/5 in SEC play & down to a 6-man rotation.  4 have fouled out of 1 of the last 4 games and 3 out of 2 or more games.  Miss has lost 5 straight in the SEC but they've only lost 1 game(Bama) by more than 9.  Ark is #9 in offensive efficiency in the conf games, while Miss is #11.  Miss is #7 in defensive efficiency, two spots ahead of #9 Arkansas.   Too many points for a team like Ark that is flailing since losing Nick Smith.

Alabama -5 1/2 at Missouri.  

Bama learned Sunday night a teammate was in jail for capital murder, shook it off & won Tuesday at Vanderbilt.  They've won all 6 SEC games by double digits, three on the road.  They beat #1 Houston at their place. They're the #1 offense & #1 defense in league play.  Missouri's defense is #10 and they are #13 in 2 pt FG % defense and #11 in 3 pt FG %defense.  Bama is #14 in the country in rebounding % at 54.7%, while Missouri is #338 at 45.5%.

Iowa State -1 at Oklahoma State

Ok State shot a combined 34.3% in the 3 straight losses prior to beating rival Oklahoma and they now face the #1 defense in the very deep, very tough Big 12.  Ok State is 0/5 against top 25 teams and 2/5 against top 50 teams while ISU is 4/3 against top 25 teams and 6/3 against top 50 teams, including the win against Kansas. They've proven they can win on the road against tough teams with btb conf road wins at #11 Texas and #17 Baylor.  ISU has the #1 defense and Ok State #2 in the conference.  ISU is #2 in offensive efficiency, #1 in effective FG % and #2 in offensive rebound %.  Ok State is #10 in offensive efficiency and effective FG 5 and #8 in offensive rebound %.

I'll take UNC Greensboro -8 1/2 at home against Mercer

Mercer is on a rare third straight road game in 8 days, while UNCG has two home games this week.  UNCG's only conference loss was a 2-pt loss to undefeated Samford.  They won the other 6 by 25, 9, 12, 15, 8 and 9 points.  UNCG is #1 in the conference in defensive efficiency while Mercer is #8.  UNCG is #4 in offensive efficiency and #2 in 3 pt FG % at 40.6%.  Mercer is last in the league in defending the 3 pt shot, allowing opposing teams to shoot an astounding 42.6% from beyond the arc.  Mercer's offense is last in the league in offensive efficiency, 2 pt FG % and 3 pt FG %.  They got a win Thursday night and I think that makes it even more likely they'll simply be satisfied to win one in this tough 3-game road trip and will probably surrender on tired legs.

Iowa +4 at Ohio State

Two teams heading in opposite directions.  OSU lost on the road against a tough Rutgers team last Sunday.  Wednesday they lost another road game to an underwhelming Nebraska team.  Now they face a surging Iowa team with tired legs.  OSU started the B10 season but lost the last 5 including an ugly home loss to #187 Minn.  They've shot a combined 37.5% from the field their last four games, all losses.  OSU is 3-6 against top 50 teams while Iowa is 7/2 in games against top 50 teams.  Iowa started the conference season 0/3 and has since rattled off four straight conference wins, including an 11-point win in a long road trip to Rutgers.  They were home for two games last week and have had six days to prepare for this key road game at OSU.  Iowa has the #2 offense in the league versus OSU's #9, but the stats are reversed on defense with OSU 36 and Iowa #13.  However, OSU has to be feeling some fatigue after this tough stretch and Iowa is rested.

@Lapenti

@OldHammy

 Sorry duplicate post. I got an error message on the first one and thought I had to redo it but that one somehow made it through too.