Mississippi +9 1/2 at Arkansas
Ark's weak pre-conf slate included losing the only game against a top 38 team. They've lost 2 starters including their leading scorer. They're 1/5 in SEC play & down to a 6-man rotation. 4 have fouled out of 1 of the last 4 games and 3 out of 2 or more games. Miss has lost 5 straight in the SEC but they've only lost 1 game(Bama) by more than 9. Ark is #9 in offensive efficiency in the conf games, while Miss is #11. Miss is #7 in defensive efficiency, two spots ahead of #9 Arkansas. Too many points for a team like Ark that is flailing since losing Nick Smith.
Alabama -5 1/2 at Missouri.
Bama learned Sunday night a teammate was in jail for capital murder, shook it off & won Tuesday at Vanderbilt. They've won all 6 SEC games by double digits, three on the road. They beat #1 Houston at their place. They're the #1 offense & #1 defense in league play. Missouri's defense is #10 and they are #13 in 2 pt FG % defense and #11 in 3 pt FG %defense. Bama is #14 in the country in rebounding % at 54.7%, while Missouri is #338 at 45.5%.
Iowa State -1 at Oklahoma State
Ok State shot a combined 34.3% in the 3 straight losses prior to beating rival Oklahoma and they now face the #1 defense in the very deep, very tough Big 12. Ok State is 0/5 against top 25 teams and 2/5 against top 50 teams while ISU is 4/3 against top 25 teams and 6/3 against top 50 teams, including the win against Kansas. They've proven they can win on the road against tough teams with btb conf road wins at #11 Texas and #17 Baylor. ISU has the #1 defense and Ok State #2 in the conference. ISU is #2 in offensive efficiency, #1 in effective FG % and #2 in offensive rebound %. Ok State is #10 in offensive efficiency and effective FG 5 and #8 in offensive rebound %.
I'll take UNC Greensboro -8 1/2 at home against Mercer
Mercer is on a rare third straight road game in 8 days, while UNCG has two home games this week. UNCG's only conference loss was a 2-pt loss to undefeated Samford. They won the other 6 by 25, 9, 12, 15, 8 and 9 points. UNCG is #1 in the conference in defensive efficiency while Mercer is #8. UNCG is #4 in offensive efficiency and #2 in 3 pt FG % at 40.6%. Mercer is last in the league in defending the 3 pt shot, allowing opposing teams to shoot an astounding 42.6% from beyond the arc. Mercer's offense is last in the league in offensive efficiency, 2 pt FG % and 3 pt FG %. They got a win Thursday night and I think that makes it even more likely they'll simply be satisfied to win one in this tough 3-game road trip and will probably surrender on tired legs.
Iowa +4 at Ohio State
Two teams heading in opposite directions. OSU lost on the road against a tough Rutgers team last Sunday. Wednesday they lost another road game to an underwhelming Nebraska team. Now they face a surging Iowa team with tired legs. OSU started the B10 season but lost the last 5 including an ugly home loss to #187 Minn. They've shot a combined 37.5% from the field their last four games, all losses. OSU is 3-6 against top 50 teams while Iowa is 7/2 in games against top 50 teams. Iowa started the conference season 0/3 and has since rattled off four straight conference wins, including an 11-point win in a long road trip to Rutgers. They were home for two games last week and have had six days to prepare for this key road game at OSU. Iowa has the #2 offense in the league versus OSU's #9, but the stats are reversed on defense with OSU 36 and Iowa #13. However, OSU has to be feeling some fatigue after this tough stretch and Iowa is rested.
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