At Fan Duel Drake +3 1/2 against KSU.
Ken Pom has this "semi-home" for KSU in Kansas City, but I'd say neutral since it's a 2 hr bus ride from Manhattan and 2 hr 45 min. from Des Moines.
Similar strengths of schedule (#115 for Drake and #95 for KSU). The results tell the tale. Drake comes in undefeated with 3 easy wins over top 100 teams (#62 Vande 81-70, #93 Fla Atl. 75-63 & #96 Miami 80-69, all at neutral sites).
KSU is 6/3 and lost all 3 they've played against top 100 teams (65-76 vs #59 LSU at home, 65-67 vs #66 Liberty at a neutral site and 71-88 at #14 St. Johns). They've yet to prove they can win a big game with their wins coming against #364, #362, #346, #215 and #144, 3 at home and two at neutral sites.
Drake plays at about the slowest pace in the NCAA although you couldn't tell that from the Miami and Vande scores. They are roughly equal offensively and in shooting the ball but Drake is significantly better defensively at #45 in defensive efficiency. KSU protects the ball better but Drake is #21 in the country in creating TOs so TOs are probably a wash.
Drake's big advantage is they are the #7 team in the country in percentage of available rebounds gotten (57.0%) vs KSU which is #102 at 52%. Drake does it against the good teams too. Their rebound margin against Miami was +14, +9 vs Fla. Atl. and +17 vs Vande. KSU was -18 in the home loss to LSU, the #120 ranked team in percentage of rebounds they get. It's tough in a low-scoring game to give 3 1/2 points while likely giving them more opportunities with a wide gap in rebounding. Could be wrong team favored here.
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