NBAKiller21

@ONENESS129

 Anytime bro, going to be really selective this year and only make smart plays even if that means sometimes going a week without making any bets. Continued success let's cash this one 

@D-Town

YTD: 1-0


Los Angeles +3 over Minnesota

YTD: 0-0

First play of the season

Dallas -3.5

Miami Ohio -2.5 over Ohio 

Last play until the Playoff Final 4. 

To everyone in here who regularly posts, good luck this weekend. I can't wait to see how the chips fall the rest of the season. 

@Drew61

 Not only that but I will never bet on a team again missing 6 Pro Bowl players against a team that has the leading candidate for MVP. Missing 1-3 guys is okay, it's the NFL everyone is hurt to some extent at this point of the season but San Fran is gutted with injuries. Josh Allen carved that defense like a hot knife through butter. Good luck the rest of the season. 

Week 13 Results: Sides: 2-2, Parlays: 1-0

Cleveland +6 

Regardless of who wins, I see this as a gritty low scoring game where the defenses will be able to have success. Winston is a rollercoaster but as long as he doesn't throw a backbreaking pick 6 and manages a clean game, Cleveland has what it takes to keep this one close.

To any one reading this, don't be like me yesterday and manage your bankroll properly. I was up $5K after the 1:00 games, thought that Baltimore was a "can't lose" type of play so I nearly doubled up on the Ravens then lost again late with SF. Ended up having a losing day which could've been profitable if I didn't chase for $10K. 
You can't win the long game in sports betting if you lose to the greed for more today. Never over bet your edge no matter how great you think it is. There's always a new day and a new week to do damage.

 

Week 12 Results: 0-2 Teasers, 0-2-1 Straight Bets

Got crushed in Week 12 but the best thing to do is put in in the rearview and keep chugging along. 

Week 13 Picks:

Cardinals +3.5
Big Let down spot for Minnesota coming off three consecutive road games winning all of them. I think some complacency will set in this week, the team has all week to exhale and relax coming off an overtime win against a division rival game that means a lot to both teams. Arizona has a solid defense that can force Sam Darnold into mistakes, Kyler and his mobility can make off script plays to counter the blitzes Brian Flores likes to throw at opposing QB's. Should be a good game and I expect this to be close. Arizona will play much better on offense after a 6 point outing which snapped their 4 game winning streak. An Arizona win sets up an intriguing rematch with Seattle in week 14 where the winner can gain separation in the NFC West

Jags +5 **
Putting an asterisk next to this one since I can't pull the trigger until I know Trevor Lawrence is playing or not. If Mac Jones starts, I will not play this game. Jacksonville coming off a bye and losing should put forth a good effort at home against a divisional rival. Houston is looking more like a paper tiger each week, and it was reported yesterday they lost DB Jalen Pitre for an extended time period so Jacksonville should have some passing success in this game. I don't like the Houston offensive line at all and Stroud has looked very shaky this season when faced with pressure. 

ML Parlay/Teaser 
Cardinals +10
Commanders ML

Ravens -3 POD SMASH SPOT
Love the Ravens in this spot. Lamar has an incredible record against the spread when favored by three points or less. When fading the Eagles, I want to back a team that has an elite offense and the Ravens are second in points per game. Baltimore has more than one way to beat teams this year since this is the best Lamar has looked in his career throwing the ball and Derrick Henry is the best RB the Ravens have had with Lamar at QB. Defensively, the Ravens are great against the run, and Saquon will not run all over them the way he did against the Rams on sunday night. If Roquan Smith plays, Baltimore should be in better shape to stop the run. The pass defense is concerning but as long as they bend and don't break, I expect the Ravens offense to make more critical plays in the fourth quarter and put them over the top. AJ Brown can be doubled and he won't have as big of an impact if Devonta Smith doesn't play. 

San Francisco +7
Buffalo coming off of their biggest win of the season against the Chiefs riding a 6 game winning streak. The last thing you want is a bye week to halt the momentum. San Francisco is playing for their season sunday night. Bills might be a little too fat and happy for this one. This is a good number to grab now because if Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Charvarius Ward and Dre Greenlaw all suit up and play this week, this line should go right back to the original lookahead line of -3.5 for the Bills. No team wants to get humiliated in back to back weeks, and I think this is a perfect spot to buy the 49ers with public perception of the Bills as high as it currently stands. San Fran is not out of the NFC West race and Buffalo pretty much has their division locked up. I expect the 49ers to play with some pride and put together their best effort of the season in this one. Winning the trenches and LOS will be key in this game if it snows like the weather forecast predicts. They have the personnel to do it. If they have their main cast of characters available, this is a live dog. No team is as good as their best game and no team is as bad as their worst. 

Good luck and hope everyone here has a good Thanksgiving. I expect to do a lot of damage and bounce back with a monster week.

3-0 Overall Last Week

2 Team Teaser (-117):
Patriots +14
Giants +12

2 team Teaser (-112):
Patriots +14
Titans +14

Straight Bets:
Minnesota -3.5 (Shop around and try to get 3)
Patriots +7.5
Cardinals ML 

Good luck whatever you play. Lot of ugly dogs this week but sometimes the ugly games lead to some pretty payouts. 

2 Team Teaser (6 Points):
Bears +11.5
Steelers +9
-120

Second Teaser:
Tennessee +12
Steelers +9
-120

Bills ML POD 

Was feeling really down after week 7 but I have all the confidence i'm about to go on a massive heater in the second half of the season just like last year. Good luck to all whatever you play. 

Good luck bro I like Green Bay a lot

Georgia +4 

Looking forward to what should be a banger

Week 5 0-3 

Green Bay -2.5

Cleveland +5.5

San Francisco -1.5

2 Team Teaser (6 points):
Cleveland +11.5
L.A. Rams -1

Monday Night:
Arizona ML 

Great call with Indiana, I was on the other side and took a beating. Good luck with the evening plays hope to see you back in the NFL threads soon. I'll be on Georgia with the points to salvage the day. 

What exchanges would you recommend for U.S. players? I'm thinking of signing up with ProphetX next week where you play with "prophet cash" and redeem it for prizes and can play in contests. I would ideally be looking for an outlet that's legal and has high market liquidity. Love the picks this week, agree with all of them except Denver and Cincinnati. 

If you could take a little time to explain how you hedge a bet using Tampa Bay-Atlanta as an example from last week to ensure a profit I would greatly appreciate it. Everything i've read about exchanges seems like it's similar to the stock market, and given that there's no middleman with the increased vig, you can buy (back bet) and sell (lay bet) positions where books offer back bets only. This is where understanding the price is important but i'm not an expert yet with buying and selling lines. Really hope this isn't wasting your time, I want to learn as much as possible.  

@Wizerguy

 Thanks bro, means a lot coming from you. Let's crush these books the rest of the NFL and College Football season. 

Jets ML

Cincinnati +2.5

Buffalo ML

Not much I like for the 4:00 slate but this is a tough week. Week 6 and onward should be easier with more plays to take advantage of. Tread carefully this week and enjoy the games. 

LOVE the bengals pick, any thoughts on Buffalo/Houston? I like the Bills to bounce back after getting embarrassed, Houston during the Stroud era has struggled beating top tier teams and they are a different style running team than Baltimore, more finesse than power, Houston's secondary is not to be trusted at this point and they've been an undisciplined team committing the most penalties thus far. I'm still debating on whether to pull the trigger on the jets for the early game. Sometimes you have to let the line tell the story and the Vikings will come down to Earth at some point, the question is when, if something looks too good to be true (with Minnesota -2), it probably is. If the game were in Minnesota, I don't think the line would be any more than 3-3.5. Good luck this week.

@Ih8coldweather

 It's been a recurring theme in his college football and college basketball threads. I've lurked around here for many years but it's always made me angry seeing people attack this guy when he always turns things around mid season. I started turning around my betting success last year which likely saved my life and it makes me nervous when i'm on the opposite side of Wizer cause even if we disagree, i respect his opinion with me still being a young guy hahaha and his seasoned prowess. Good luck tomorrow to both of you. Tough week ahead but week 6 and onward should be smooth sailing. 

Green Bay might be my favorite play of the week. I'm taking -3 at -105 since I anticipate it will move up by Sunday morning. Perfect sell high spot where Minnesota comes back down to earth, they've been surprising but playing at an unsustainable level. Similar spot to Miami-Buffalo last year after the dolphins scored 70 the previous week then got smoked.

I have some questions for you at a later time since I'm looking to eventually do this for a living and I know you will be able to help in terms of advice. Good luck this week. I can't pull the trigger on New Orleans but I think Cincinnati breaks out this week against a Carolina pass defense they should have plenty of success against. 

Posted Record 0-4

Friday Bets:

1) Guardians -1 +108

2) Pirates +106

Two team parlay (+129)
Guardians -120
Dodgers/Yankees Over 6.5