NFL Sunday Week 6....

NFL Season Record:  -5.25 units
I have included widely available current pricing this week.  I am not going to do it every week, just showing that lines often have very low widely available vig.  Less (way less) vig if you are on an exchange, or using other price reduction techniques that can get you to + vig pricing.

SUNDAY

Chargers -2.75 (3.5 units) -105 Wide
Patriots +6.5 (3 units) -103 Bookmaker
Panthers +6 (3 units) -108 Bookmaker
Ravens -6.75 (2.5 units) -100 Wide
Packers -5.5 (2.5 units) -100 Lowvig
Giants +3.5 (2.5 units) -100 Lowvig
Bears -1.5 (2 units) -101 Bet105

GL all

Hey vanzack,

Do you like the Texans and Bengals to win, just not cover?

Thanks!

I am going to take this as a serious question and take the time to answer it seriously....

There is a price/line combination on every bet you make.  Asking "do I think the Texans and Bengals will win"? as sizable favorites - without saying the price associated is not a valid question.

If you gave me the opportunity to bet the Texans and the Bengals ML at -100, I would bet a lot on those teams.  A lot. 

But if you gave me the option to bet the Bengals ML at -180ish, or the Texans at -300ish - I think they are both too expensive and would bet the dogs.

Make sense?

GL  VZ

@vanzack

I¡¯d parlay both and get them at +104

Parlaying ML favorites is only a benefit psychologically.

It does nothing to reduce overall juice.

Not saying you shouldnt do it - do whatever you like - just the math isnt with you on this one.

Liking LAC, BAL, and NE myself. I was hoping some money would come in on WAS so we could get a 6 on BAL but I'm doubting it happens now but I'll just wait bc I think its more likely to go to 6 than 7, and will wait and hope for a 7 w NE

As you can see not all of those are no juice, but yet you still use a no vig record, make it make sense man! 

if you actually count the average juice of -110, your actual real total this year would be -8.85 units. You gotta stop falsifying your record every year!

And where do you find chargers -2.5?? Everywhere is -3 at -105 juice or EVEN at best. Just like how you call out others giving themselves the better line, you¡¯re giving yourself the better line WITH NO JUICE.

@vanzack

If you were to lose one of the two then you¡¯d have broken even at best if they had hypothetically been EV ML¡¯s, so there¡¯s always that regarding this particular math (at the +104)

First of all on the Chargers game he is betting into an Asian line. Far above the average players comprehension. 

Also please understand that the lines, vig and places to make the play are stated. He never stated Chargers -2.5. Please just relax, slowly reread and my hope is that you will understand. I have been doing this a lot longer than most. I always keep an open mind to any and all as we can all learn together. 

Step back, learn and maybe just maybe post something. Well anything that can be helpful to the forum. 

Yeah - I would wait for NE also.

I dont think Balt will go lower than 6.5.  Too much sharp action willing to buy it the second it hits 6, I know a lot of groups that have buy signals all over at 6.

Hopefully the storm spared you any water trouble,  good to see you post!

Its just mental masturbation.

Parlaying them does nothing to reduce the overall odds you are paying on two (or more) heavy ML favs.

@gotime

Totally lost my house in the mountains near Asheville from Helene.  Literally, sticks and bricks everywhere, and no access roads.  Total loss.

Tampa was fine.  Very prepared there because of building codes etc - water didn't get as high as expected - seawall kept most of it back and I have a double hill dam leading to the seawall.  15 foot rise would have been trouble, but it was about 8 where I am an only made it up to the base of the second hill.  No damage.

I am already heading back to home base in Denver.

Crazy situation, crazy month - but the situation in W NC is catastrophic to a lot of people who will never be able to rebuild - and uninhabitable because of the road situation.  I am very fortunate.

Lol

Love it Zac

If that¡¯s the case, then chargers -2.5 would be -125 juice at best and -3 would be even juice, so how does that average out to be EVEN juice? Do you even know how to average out the juice for Asian line? You don¡¯t just pick the EVEN juice you get at -3 you know? 

Dude, give it a rest. You're like a broken record. And stalking IS against the law. 

@spicycurry

 !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jeez fu$k off Juice guy..juice this, juice that...vete a la MIERDA with a gallon of Juice piss there Juicy Fruit.

@spicycurry

 Not this guy again ugh. Another week of sitting through your comments to get to the posts that matter

@vanzack

 Hey van. Sorry to hear about your house in NC. At least your family and pets are ok. 

Would you care to elaborate on the CIN/NYG game? 

As far as I can see, you have the #2 ranked offense per DVOA vs the #17 ranked defense per DVOA. Obviously the Bengals defense has been awful so far, but facing the Giants with no Nabors is a big difference. Forget what they did to Seattle last week as Seattles D is one of the worst in the league right now.

 I ask because I¡¯m considering a medium-large play on CIN. It seems that the Bengals are actually a better team than their record shows. The offense is playing well and the QB is playing great. I have already placed a wager on Cin over 8.5 wins as I believe they will be 5-4 by November.

If Cincy is rolling on offense how do the Giants keep the game within 3?

@spicycurry

NO ONE CARES.

GL vanzack...good to hear your Tampa home was left unscathed