NFL Sunday Week 6....

@vanzack

 got 2.5 feet in my house on Anna Maria from Helene but it was not that bad really. hoping the thing is still there after Milton. No idea when we'll be able to go check it out. Very sorry to hear about your NC place. one of my favorite places in the world up there. went to summer camp near hendersonville. sent my kids there, too. what happened around Lake Lure is unimaginable. I rented a big cabin up there a few years back. I assume it's lost. Feel bad for the owner. Nice guy.

thanks for sharing your betting info. As always.

Great to see you quoting adjusted stats (such as DVOA).  Nothing better for those out there looking to objectively compare stats than something like a DVOA subscription ($59 a year, others elsewhere also).

Cincy offense definitely is rolling, and Burrow is playing lights out.  But as you state - their defense really hasnt had a good game all season.  5 games - 41, 24, 38, 26, 16 - points scored against.  They have been behind a lot this season - and throwing their way out of it - so a lot of their offensive stats should be discounted because of game situation IMO. 

Sheldon Rankins should be back this week on the DLine - which might give them some presence up front - but they just dont get to the opposition QB (26th in NFL pressure rate, 31st adjusted for competition pressure rate).  Daniel Jones is putrid under pressure - but actually very good when he has time to go through progressions.

I think the Bengals are better than their record shows (1-4) - I agree with you there.  But I try not to bet potential.  I bet what I see, and what I can objectively make a case for with stats and numbers.  In this case - I have no evidence that the Bengals defense will suddenly be able to stop the Giants, and I do think it is more likely that the Giants defense can stop the Bengals.  In my sims - the average score is 27-26 Bengals - and that is largely because of their big red zone advantage (5th in the league in red zone TDs, vs Giants 27th) - so more drives end in points for the Giants but more of those are FGs than the Bengals.

Not trying to talk you out of the Bengals bet.  If they put it together, and play a complete game defensively - they will win and cover.  I think it is just a difference between potential and likelihood based on previous results - and difference of approach between you and I.  I would be willing to bet we see this game very similarly.

GL

Thank you.

Oh man - I would like you to update me on Anna Maria Island.  I hope its OK, but I am concerned after Milton.

I would like to say we will rebuild in W NC, but I dont think we can.  I have never seen anything like it.  You know how it is in the mountains there - you have one road that follows a river - and that is the only way in and out.  Well those roads are completely gone now.  I got to my property after a 5 mile ATV ride.  There is no way to live there as far as I can tell - I am 20 miles N-NE of Asheville - and Hendersonville is S of Asheville and more built up so more of a chance there.  For now - we are just on hold.  I have no idea if roads will take 1 year or 10 years to rebuild.

People have lost everything.  It is so sad.

@vabirdsfan

 I¡¯m just stating straight up FACTS!! Just calling Vanzack out for being dishonest AGAIN

@vanzack

 Thanks for the response. Your knowledge and insight is always appreciated. 

Same to you.

Who else do you like this week?

@spicycurry

 I really tried to give you an even chance to reply. Did you offer anything positive to the forum? To question my integraty or interpretation of an Asian line or any other bet is pathetic. Did you fight for this country? Have you been betting since 1974? Well I have. I as well as most of the posters in this thread think you may need help. There is no shame in reaching out for your mental health issues. In fact I would help you out if you need it. Compassion and uplifting people is my game. I and others would really like to hear some positivity in your next response. 

Love GB and LAC. Lean Pit and surprisingly Dallas. Loved Indy if Flacco was playing. Bal would also be a 3 unit(max) for me, but I need to see this game to know if I can justify betting against Jayden Daniels. I also believe that Washington’s defense is slowly improving.

I’m actually going to stop posting plays for a few weeks until I get some things worked out and some more data gathered that is relevant to this season. As we briefly discussed in a previous thread, I believe that data carryover from last season is actually hurting me. Not to mention seemingly being on the wrong side of every bad call, 4th quarterback comeback, missed field goal, poor coaching decisions, and bad beat imaginable.

I’d like to run an idea by you if you have time or an opinion to comment back. I have been convinced for over a year now that coaches need to be accounted for in spread point values for each team. I’m not sure how to go about it, but I was thinking a scale of +3 to -3. Obviously those would be the extremes with most coaches being considered a 0. For example, only Andy Reid is worth 3 points to his team and only a couple (Dennis Allen types) worth -3. 

The main issue here is that this is mostly a matter of my opinion and I would much rather be using something based on actual numbers. Idk, just a thought. I know that every time I get burned by a moron coach I find myself saying “How did I not account for this?”. 

I¡¯m glad I don¡¯t read 90% of all this back and forth¡­. It¡¯s exhausting 

@vanzack

Glad to hear you and your house is safe.

Good to see you ignoring that clown. 

Your picks looks like what any street bookie will go up against this week. 

Sorry for the terrible week of events Van. Without sounding like wack job, is there any local word on the conspiracies about the quartz mines in NC being a reason for some events (either the cause or why roads won't get fixed). I read all kinds of stuff, and sometimes things sound too crazy....but this didn't seem unfathomable.....

GL this week sir

@vanzack

 Will do. no storm surge with Milton, so there's that. but lots of rain so there could be freshwater flooding in the house. and 100 mph winds. if the roof and windows survived, might be ok. gonna have to demo the kitchens, bathrooms, and the walls anyway. need new appliances. saved a few pieces of furniture. the place is essentially empty but for the garage which is a disaster still. got the demo guys lined up and paid, but they were supposed to start wednesday. Of course that didn't happen. I'm not in the state, but my brother is handling it. biggest problem is finding gasoline to drive over and run generators. there's no electricity. no water. no internet. but if the roof stayed on, we probably still have a house. it was my dad's retreat. he's been gone for 3 decades. the nc situation is horrible. it'll take a decade to recover. for some people, they'll have to start of scratch. i can't imagine it.

Van...So glad You are treating spicydouche as invisible. 

You answered from every different angle and perspective in your last thread.  One can't argue without an opponent.

Happy to see that you have rendered him opponetless. He now looks the fool that he really is.. He will get bored and disappear...Hopefully!

@vanzack

GL buddy this weekend. Hope all is well through the hurricanes. I have been dealing with a sick dog since Thursday. never had a dog with kennel cough before but dang its bad for them. 2 vet visits and she finally is able to rest this evening and so can we. Been 2 long nights.

@vanzack

 This is a tough week.  I'm being very cautious.  But love the chargers.  Been so busy missed out on the early international soccer window as well.  

Is it true they found the largest lithium deposit in the world just outside Ashville? 

hard to believe but i smell better without old spice             GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK

What exchanges would you recommend for U.S. players? I'm thinking of signing up with ProphetX next week where you play with "prophet cash" and redeem it for prizes and can play in contests. I would ideally be looking for an outlet that's legal and has high market liquidity. Love the picks this week, agree with all of them except Denver and Cincinnati. 

If you could take a little time to explain how you hedge a bet using Tampa Bay-Atlanta as an example from last week to ensure a profit I would greatly appreciate it. Everything i've read about exchanges seems like it's similar to the stock market, and given that there's no middleman with the increased vig, you can buy (back bet) and sell (lay bet) positions where books offer back bets only. This is where understanding the price is important but i'm not an expert yet with buying and selling lines. Really hope this isn't wasting your time, I want to learn as much as possible.  

Glad to hear the Tampa house went through it OK 

Do you give *any* consideration to Jags/Bears game being played in England and most players on the Jags have been there before/multiple times? Old hat vs new hat? Just curious if that matters to you at all or you feel that's already baked into the line

To be more specific,  TLaw has been there a bunch and Caleb has already looked overwhelmed in quite a few spots, adding that travel into the mix and well does it matter......

JAX is 5-5 SU and ATS in regular season neutral-site games.  No edge.

That's a pretty full card, VZ.  I never bet that many NFL games in one week.  Mucho good luck.

Best wishes with all of your houses.  I live in an apartment and I cannot imagine all of the stress you are enduring.

@vanzack

 solid price shopping. Here in Australia all the books like the US ones charge to much Vig (standard 11/10)

Ever since betting on asian markets through a broker, the vig im getting is literally 1-3% MAX. Game changer, asian books are the way of the future especially as anyone in the world can access them with Crypto (USDT - stable coin) or solana.. if the country you reside in does not allow you to wager through the Asian market.

GL  on your plays @vanzack

 #3 duly noted, makes sense 

Good luck Van.  

Good luck Van!  Looks like a big card, you said units would be down ¡ª does this mean you feel even stronger about these games to play them?