Week 12 Results: 0-2 Teasers, 0-2-1 Straight Bets
Got crushed in Week 12 but the best thing to do is put in in the rearview and keep chugging along.
Week 13 Picks:
Cardinals +3.5
Big Let down spot for Minnesota coming off three consecutive road games winning all of them. I think some complacency will set in this week, the team has all week to exhale and relax coming off an overtime win against a division rival game that means a lot to both teams. Arizona has a solid defense that can force Sam Darnold into mistakes, Kyler and his mobility can make off script plays to counter the blitzes Brian Flores likes to throw at opposing QB's. Should be a good game and I expect this to be close. Arizona will play much better on offense after a 6 point outing which snapped their 4 game winning streak. An Arizona win sets up an intriguing rematch with Seattle in week 14 where the winner can gain separation in the NFC West
Jags +5 **
Putting an asterisk next to this one since I can't pull the trigger until I know Trevor Lawrence is playing or not. If Mac Jones starts, I will not play this game. Jacksonville coming off a bye and losing should put forth a good effort at home against a divisional rival. Houston is looking more like a paper tiger each week, and it was reported yesterday they lost DB Jalen Pitre for an extended time period so Jacksonville should have some passing success in this game. I don't like the Houston offensive line at all and Stroud has looked very shaky this season when faced with pressure.
ML Parlay/Teaser
Cardinals +10
Commanders ML
Ravens -3 POD SMASH SPOT
Love the Ravens in this spot. Lamar has an incredible record against the spread when favored by three points or less. When fading the Eagles, I want to back a team that has an elite offense and the Ravens are second in points per game. Baltimore has more than one way to beat teams this year since this is the best Lamar has looked in his career throwing the ball and Derrick Henry is the best RB the Ravens have had with Lamar at QB. Defensively, the Ravens are great against the run, and Saquon will not run all over them the way he did against the Rams on sunday night. If Roquan Smith plays, Baltimore should be in better shape to stop the run. The pass defense is concerning but as long as they bend and don't break, I expect the Ravens offense to make more critical plays in the fourth quarter and put them over the top. AJ Brown can be doubled and he won't have as big of an impact if Devonta Smith doesn't play.
San Francisco +7
Buffalo coming off of their biggest win of the season against the Chiefs riding a 6 game winning streak. The last thing you want is a bye week to halt the momentum. San Francisco is playing for their season sunday night. Bills might be a little too fat and happy for this one. This is a good number to grab now because if Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Charvarius Ward and Dre Greenlaw all suit up and play this week, this line should go right back to the original lookahead line of -3.5 for the Bills. No team wants to get humiliated in back to back weeks, and I think this is a perfect spot to buy the 49ers with public perception of the Bills as high as it currently stands. San Fran is not out of the NFC West race and Buffalo pretty much has their division locked up. I expect the 49ers to play with some pride and put together their best effort of the season in this one. Winning the trenches and LOS will be key in this game if it snows like the weather forecast predicts. They have the personnel to do it. If they have their main cast of characters available, this is a live dog. No team is as good as their best game and no team is as bad as their worst.
Good luck and hope everyone here has a good Thanksgiving. I expect to do a lot of damage and bounce back with a monster week.
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