KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year.
I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN.
I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play.
They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good
Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game.
And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season
KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound.
Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people.
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KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year.
I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN.
I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play.
They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good
Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game.
And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season
KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound.
Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people.
Just look at this Mahomes has never been Sacked over 4.5% of passing plays other then his rookie year which he only threw 35 passes.
This year 6.97% almost 7%, that is a high sack rate. So are guys suggesting the line is coasting, not playing hard so maybe Mahomes gets hurt. Let's just ignore that ?
Mahomes did sprain is ankle bad in 2022 season playoffs limping into AFC title game VS Bengals.
So the line is coating on purpose and waiting toll playoffs to actually block better ? Sounds silly.
Because of this high sack rate Mahomes has his lowest ave per pass attempt this year. He is not getting the ball down field, but interestingly he has his highest completion % only because he throws so many short passes.
After factoring in his high sack rate his ave per pass drops big time.
He has his highest INT %.
So let's get this straight, the line is only coasting waiting for playoffs to block harder and Mahomes is throwing INT's at a higher rate because is doesn't want to try too hard. He'll just wait till playoffs to try real hard.
KC will be a very weak no.1 seed. The history of these weak no. 1 seeds does not bode well for this team . They are more likely to lose their 1st playoff game then win the SB.
Mahomes or no Mahomes. Mahomes is the big difference maker when he plays on a good team. He won't be a big difference maker on a not very good team. He can't do everything.
Very possible there is a big surprise coming for these guys thinking this is like last year and Mahomes and KC will just magically turn it up come playoff time.
They could lose to the most unlikely team and by a score just might shock people.
1
Just look at this Mahomes has never been Sacked over 4.5% of passing plays other then his rookie year which he only threw 35 passes.
This year 6.97% almost 7%, that is a high sack rate. So are guys suggesting the line is coasting, not playing hard so maybe Mahomes gets hurt. Let's just ignore that ?
Mahomes did sprain is ankle bad in 2022 season playoffs limping into AFC title game VS Bengals.
So the line is coating on purpose and waiting toll playoffs to actually block better ? Sounds silly.
Because of this high sack rate Mahomes has his lowest ave per pass attempt this year. He is not getting the ball down field, but interestingly he has his highest completion % only because he throws so many short passes.
After factoring in his high sack rate his ave per pass drops big time.
He has his highest INT %.
So let's get this straight, the line is only coasting waiting for playoffs to block harder and Mahomes is throwing INT's at a higher rate because is doesn't want to try too hard. He'll just wait till playoffs to try real hard.
KC will be a very weak no.1 seed. The history of these weak no. 1 seeds does not bode well for this team . They are more likely to lose their 1st playoff game then win the SB.
Mahomes or no Mahomes. Mahomes is the big difference maker when he plays on a good team. He won't be a big difference maker on a not very good team. He can't do everything.
Very possible there is a big surprise coming for these guys thinking this is like last year and Mahomes and KC will just magically turn it up come playoff time.
They could lose to the most unlikely team and by a score just might shock people.
@theclaw So if you're down on the Chiefs...who is your pick to come out of the AFC?..... Thanks for the input....
I like Bills, this is their year. Allen has cut down his TO's and this reminds me alot of Brady and Manning. For many years Brady beat Manning then it was the Colts year and they beat Brady in the AFC title game and won SB.
Although I doubt KC gets to the title game. So won't be totally the same.
Bills have been top 5 in pts per plays margin all year and are outgaining opps by more yards in the 2cd half as I talked about they would.
As are the Steelers, teams that are not...KC and Ravens...............
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Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
@theclaw So if you're down on the Chiefs...who is your pick to come out of the AFC?..... Thanks for the input....
I like Bills, this is their year. Allen has cut down his TO's and this reminds me alot of Brady and Manning. For many years Brady beat Manning then it was the Colts year and they beat Brady in the AFC title game and won SB.
Although I doubt KC gets to the title game. So won't be totally the same.
Bills have been top 5 in pts per plays margin all year and are outgaining opps by more yards in the 2cd half as I talked about they would.
As are the Steelers, teams that are not...KC and Ravens...............
@theclaw Are the Eagles or Lions coming out of the NFC Claw??....
Lions would be my choice, Eagles 2cd.
Both these teams have played lights-out outgaining opps 2cd half of season in total yards margin.
I'd have to look more into Eagles because they didn't take off until their injuries players came back. Since then they might be pretty even with Lions.
Will take that into consideration but I'll look into that more once playoffs get here.
1
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
@theclaw Are the Eagles or Lions coming out of the NFC Claw??....
Lions would be my choice, Eagles 2cd.
Both these teams have played lights-out outgaining opps 2cd half of season in total yards margin.
I'd have to look more into Eagles because they didn't take off until their injuries players came back. Since then they might be pretty even with Lions.
Will take that into consideration but I'll look into that more once playoffs get here.
Steelers pretty much dominate this game. Over 500 yards of offense 10.3 or whatever per pass to like 7 or whatever it was.
Outgain Bengals by well over 100 yards. Now they'll take the lead in AFC for the biggest improvement in total yards margin 2cd half of season.
They easily won this game by double digits despite the only 6 pt win. Very deceptive final score according to PR II.
Browns on deck next week. Revenge game for Steelers and another division game they really need to win to help them win the division over Ravens that could be a tiebreaker.
1
Steelers pretty much dominate this game. Over 500 yards of offense 10.3 or whatever per pass to like 7 or whatever it was.
Outgain Bengals by well over 100 yards. Now they'll take the lead in AFC for the biggest improvement in total yards margin 2cd half of season.
They easily won this game by double digits despite the only 6 pt win. Very deceptive final score according to PR II.
Browns on deck next week. Revenge game for Steelers and another division game they really need to win to help them win the division over Ravens that could be a tiebreaker.
LOOKING at KC using PR II, KC should be 5-7 at this point according to PR II. They had 7 close 1 score games and should be 3-4 in those.
Mahomes is the difference I agree in these games but he can't make up for being outplayed by large amounts. No single player can.
There have been only 3 games KC either won or lost by double digits.
2 games they should of won by DD, the biggest win by 16 pts they did have their biggest win by 13.
Then the 1st Raiders game they should win by DD but won by 7.
They should of lost to Bills by 15 and lost by 9. Mahomes cannot make up 15 pts, at some point a team needs good players to not get outplayed by 15 pts.
If a team can keep their play on the field to within 1 score then a player like Mahomes can be the difference maker in winning the game . But once a team gets outplayed by over 1 score it will be tough to overcome that. It will take getting lucky breaks to win.
1
LOOKING at KC using PR II, KC should be 5-7 at this point according to PR II. They had 7 close 1 score games and should be 3-4 in those.
Mahomes is the difference I agree in these games but he can't make up for being outplayed by large amounts. No single player can.
There have been only 3 games KC either won or lost by double digits.
2 games they should of won by DD, the biggest win by 16 pts they did have their biggest win by 13.
Then the 1st Raiders game they should win by DD but won by 7.
They should of lost to Bills by 15 and lost by 9. Mahomes cannot make up 15 pts, at some point a team needs good players to not get outplayed by 15 pts.
If a team can keep their play on the field to within 1 score then a player like Mahomes can be the difference maker in winning the game . But once a team gets outplayed by over 1 score it will be tough to overcome that. It will take getting lucky breaks to win.
I still think that the Lions are the best team. They overcome things such as injuries better than anyone.
But we're getting to the point of concern on the defensive side of the ball. How long can they sustain the adversity?
Cluster injuries at LB now. Malcolm Rodriguez tore his acl. Anzolone broke his arm 3 weeks ago. Leaving Jack Campbell the only remaining starting LB. This is a tremendous unit when fully healthy.
The Lions now officially have 12 guys on IR on the defensive side of the ball since the beginning of the year. With starting CB Carlton Davis still listed as out, and starting Nickel Emanuel Moseley still listed as out.
When looking at them defensively, I have come to the conclusion that there are 4 key players that they can not afford to lose moving forward. They have been built the correct way, and it starts in the middle, from front to back.
Both DT's Alim McNeil and DJ Reader are superb. It all starts up front, and they are cogs.
On the back end, both safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are the last line of defense. They have been the top 2 graded safeties by pff at various points in the year.
Jack Campbell is playing MLB.
So I would attack this D on the perimeter if I were any offense, for any chance. And they'll still have to outscore the Lions O, which isn't an easy task.
2
@theclaw
I still think that the Lions are the best team. They overcome things such as injuries better than anyone.
But we're getting to the point of concern on the defensive side of the ball. How long can they sustain the adversity?
Cluster injuries at LB now. Malcolm Rodriguez tore his acl. Anzolone broke his arm 3 weeks ago. Leaving Jack Campbell the only remaining starting LB. This is a tremendous unit when fully healthy.
The Lions now officially have 12 guys on IR on the defensive side of the ball since the beginning of the year. With starting CB Carlton Davis still listed as out, and starting Nickel Emanuel Moseley still listed as out.
When looking at them defensively, I have come to the conclusion that there are 4 key players that they can not afford to lose moving forward. They have been built the correct way, and it starts in the middle, from front to back.
Both DT's Alim McNeil and DJ Reader are superb. It all starts up front, and they are cogs.
On the back end, both safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are the last line of defense. They have been the top 2 graded safeties by pff at various points in the year.
Jack Campbell is playing MLB.
So I would attack this D on the perimeter if I were any offense, for any chance. And they'll still have to outscore the Lions O, which isn't an easy task.
KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year. I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN. I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play. They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game. And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound. Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people.
KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year. I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN. I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play. They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game. And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound. Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year. I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN. I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play. They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game. And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound. Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people. Spot on...........................................gl
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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: KC continues to get lucky. I see good cappers on you tube saying KC is coasting just playing hard enough to get a close win but once the playoffs start they will turn it up like last year. I see this similar narrative on some sports shows ESPN. I disagree. KC is not good. Can't compare this team to last year. The issue last year was the receivers dropping passes and fumbling. They changed receivers and that is when things got better and they played better, there was a reason for the better play. They are not doing that this year. They are just not a good team, more lucky then good Now they go to 9-0 in close 1 score games. Not repeatable, using my playoff close wins mismatch method which has rarely posted a losing record with a 3 game difference is likely fading KC in every game. And remember, most all SB winners peak in total yards margin or outgaining opps in the 2cd half off the season KC at this point of all the teams I ran their total yards margin which is most of playoff teams KC ranks dead last. They have the largest difference between 1st half and 2cd half being worse in the 2cd half of any team thus far. Of course more games to be played but nothing about this team spells SB bound. Possible they could win a game or 2 by larger scores down the stretch which would support this narrative this guys are trying to sell people. Spot on...........................................gl
@theclaw Lamar took a really bad sack on 3rd down before one of those fg misses. It turned a 39 yard try into a 47 yarder. That one felt like the dagger when watching the game.
Yea that was brutal............
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@theclaw Lamar took a really bad sack on 3rd down before one of those fg misses. It turned a 39 yard try into a 47 yarder. That one felt like the dagger when watching the game.
@theclaw I still think that the Lions are the best team. They overcome things such as injuries better than anyone. But we're getting to the point of concern on the defensive side of the ball. How long can they sustain the adversity? Cluster injuries at LB now. Malcolm Rodriguez tore his acl. Anzolone broke his arm 3 weeks ago. Leaving Jack Campbell the only remaining starting LB. This is a tremendous unit when fully healthy. The Lions now officially have 12 guys on IR on the defensive side of the ball since the beginning of the year. With starting CB Carlton Davis still listed as out, and starting Nickel Emanuel Moseley still listed as out. When looking at them defensively, I have come to the conclusion that there are 4 key players that they can not afford to lose moving forward. They have been built the correct way, and it starts in the middle, from front to back. Both DT's Alim McNeil and DJ Reader are superb. It all starts up front, and they are cogs. On the back end, both safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are the last line of defense. They have been the top 2 graded safeties by pff at various points in the year. Jack Campbell is playing MLB. So I would attack this D on the perimeter if I were any offense, for any chance. And they'll still have to outscore the Lions O, which isn't an easy task.
I think Li9ns are the best team. But with all these injuries piling up I wouldn't back them to win SB unless that get players back ...............
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@theclaw I still think that the Lions are the best team. They overcome things such as injuries better than anyone. But we're getting to the point of concern on the defensive side of the ball. How long can they sustain the adversity? Cluster injuries at LB now. Malcolm Rodriguez tore his acl. Anzolone broke his arm 3 weeks ago. Leaving Jack Campbell the only remaining starting LB. This is a tremendous unit when fully healthy. The Lions now officially have 12 guys on IR on the defensive side of the ball since the beginning of the year. With starting CB Carlton Davis still listed as out, and starting Nickel Emanuel Moseley still listed as out. When looking at them defensively, I have come to the conclusion that there are 4 key players that they can not afford to lose moving forward. They have been built the correct way, and it starts in the middle, from front to back. Both DT's Alim McNeil and DJ Reader are superb. It all starts up front, and they are cogs. On the back end, both safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are the last line of defense. They have been the top 2 graded safeties by pff at various points in the year. Jack Campbell is playing MLB. So I would attack this D on the perimeter if I were any offense, for any chance. And they'll still have to outscore the Lions O, which isn't an easy task.
I think Li9ns are the best team. But with all these injuries piling up I wouldn't back them to win SB unless that get players back ...............
With Broncos win last night they go to a fade on my new regression method.
This is a different method then my new BF II method. Which went 0-1-1 ATS in games I posted but was 3-0 earlier in the year. This method does not produce alot of games each year.
This new method uses the same advanced metrics but uses them differently. And is better later in the year once teams establish themselves.
With Denver becoming a fade that is 3 teams this week
0
With Broncos win last night they go to a fade on my new regression method.
This is a different method then my new BF II method. Which went 0-1-1 ATS in games I posted but was 3-0 earlier in the year. This method does not produce alot of games each year.
This new method uses the same advanced metrics but uses them differently. And is better later in the year once teams establish themselves.
With Denver becoming a fade that is 3 teams this week
You are correct, KC's offensive problems this year are unlike those of last year. This year it is their offensive Tackle situations. The LT spot has been an absolute disaster.
The only metric bailing out KC is they are 1st in 3rd down passing efficiency. Mahomes obviously.
They are 24th in RZ scoring and the defense has regressed since losing starting CB Watson. Kicking FGs come playoff time won't win them vs. a team like Buffalo who is tied for 3rd and scores TDs instead of FGs.
Bills better hope Denver doesn't overtake the Ravens for the 6th seed. Ravens will be able to duplicate what they did to the Bills earlier this year....
America First
1
@theclaw
You are correct, KC's offensive problems this year are unlike those of last year. This year it is their offensive Tackle situations. The LT spot has been an absolute disaster.
The only metric bailing out KC is they are 1st in 3rd down passing efficiency. Mahomes obviously.
They are 24th in RZ scoring and the defense has regressed since losing starting CB Watson. Kicking FGs come playoff time won't win them vs. a team like Buffalo who is tied for 3rd and scores TDs instead of FGs.
Bills better hope Denver doesn't overtake the Ravens for the 6th seed. Ravens will be able to duplicate what they did to the Bills earlier this year....
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