NFL WEEK 13..........................2024

Yes I agree! The icing for me will be a 7% of BR addition to have some tasty hedges in round 1 of playoffs. Yes 10-7 is likely,whereas my preseason

thoughts before wagering was 11-6............................................gl this week

FO no.1 ranked team does not have a good record for making SB.

Not sure how they do overall in playoffs with all teams but they don't do well with no. 1 team.

My no.1 team has made way more SB's even though starting in 2018 they did have a tough number of years but that was mostly due to not having a strong rated no. 1.

FO's strong rated no. 1 teams have not done well.

But they due have alot more to offer then the no. 1 team. They are well-worth following. 

Not sure what happened  but I was replying to your post ..................

Yep, Broncos  will be the toughest game. It's possible they could win. I wasn't sure who had the tiebreaker, with Texans owning that it will be tough but crazier things have happened. 

The way the Texans are playing they could lose another game to a unlikely team............

Gl claw

What does PR stand for? Power ranking ? Personal rating?

Your pr1 more offense based and pr2 more defense based?

Forgot what u said few years back 

Power Ratings.

PR I is more passing, combo of offense and defe6.

PR II is more balance oriented with run game carrying more weight. 

Both are combo of offense - defense or how much a team out-plays it's  opps..........

@theclaw

 Thanks and is it numbers you input on an excel formula to spit out a number? 

Assuming PR2 should be led by eagles and ravens then? 

Steelers +3 over Bengals --- 1.1 units

Tomlin othe best dog coach. Steelers being  a top 3 week 1 big performer off a 10 win season.

These teams win their divisions a high rate, something around 75% of the time. Even the unlikiest teams to start the year.

Plus playing a division opp where division record could play into tiebreaker I trust in the method.

And with Ravens playing Eagles a loss for Ravens could really set up Steelers nicely.

Steelers drop to 11th pts per plays margin at .059. But Bengals at 14th at .022.

The better way to measure a great defensive team like Steelers is yards per pts margin where Steelers are 4th at 3.7 and Bengals are something  like 17 at .01.

Steelers are highly efficient  with their yards and more efficient  with their plays.

Big game for Steelers I think they get the SU win.

Hey, hey, hey people Bears are hanging...........

But because they're the Bears... lol

@theclaw

With Drew Lock starting over the injured Tommy Cutlets, the Giants went from +3.5 -115 to +4 -105. Personally I'd rather see Lock out there, since he seems more like a professional athlete...he doesn't still live with his mom, for starters

KC is 8-0 ATS in close games and has 0 wins 14 pts or more.

They need to have their very first 14 pt or better win to cover.

I think they just might get that VS Raiders.

Obviously the right play seems to be Raiders based on how  this season has gone for KC. They are off like 4 or 5 straight ATS losses.

And Mahomes history is not good as a bigger favorite. 

Seems to easy, I am just throwing  my thoughts out there.

I would not take action on this but I am just playing devil's  advocate on possibly why what appears to be the right play may not turn out that way.

.................... 

Coach fired ..........

Yea probably..........

How terrible he is with time management of a game and the press conference after the game insist his call.

Not to mention, he sent the tape of last minute feild goal blocked by GB at Soldier Field to NFL.

He is a loser not the talents on the team.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Supat125]Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime: Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Hey, hey, hey people Bears are hanging........... But because they're the Bears... lol   ....................  Coach fired .......... How terrible he is with time management of a game and the press conference after the game insist his call. Not to mention, he sent the tape of last minute feild goal blocked by GB at Soldier Field to NFL. He is a loser not the talents on 

Absolutely pathetic coaching.

His explanation was there wanted to run a play with 18 seconds left then call their final timeout if needed.

This way the run the clock down giving Lions not much time left.

I saw the replay after hearing his explanation, Bears players get up and most looked lost including the QB.

One linemen was getting things organized telling players to hurry into place .

Had the players jump up quick and got into position the Lions were celebrating behind the QB at the time Bears could of caught them out of position possibly but they looked lost and ran the remaining time off the click.

They lost time getting into position then let more time run off the click before snap.

Poorly prepared team, they had no clue how to act in this spot. Coach needs to go over these situations in practice and make sure everyone understands what thay need to do.

And they basically lost 2 timeouts on plays they lacked being organized. If they had one of those this never happens.

And that linemen hands to the face is the dumbest penalty in the spot. They'd  have the ball inside the 15 . Lions probably hold them anyways but they need to give themselves a chance at least they get the FG to tie.

So many mistakes .

Very very poor situational football, a lesson on how to not be efficient in pts per plays or yards per pts.

Why some teams win and others don't 

Thanksgiving --- 0-1, lost 1.2 units

Giants go deeper into regression.  The right play according to the BF is to up our play and back Giants next week. With the ML being very much in play.

Interesting  that I found a new regression  method and according to this method the Giants were not a play on team VS Boys and would not be next week either.

The play on team was the Boys of all things. Crazy. Depending the on parameters I set for the method. To start I set the parameters  high so Boys did not meet that but I don't know at this time where they should be.

I may be using this method combining with the BF to make the BF better if possible. So I will be talking about this going forward.

For example the Bears were a play VS Lions and they were way over the already high parameters.  They were over by the most of any team I looked into thus far.

Last week Zona was over as well and a fade and a  I had a BF fade on them too that we won.

Next week the Packers would be a fade, they don't meet the high parameters  but are much closer then the Boys were.

But Packers just miss being a play on team in my other system by .05  the parameters  obviously parameters  are not set in stone so that'd be in the gray area.

Although I try to stay disciplined  and only make plays meet the parameters. 

I will be talking about this method going forward, there are different  ways to use it trying to find a way to make BF better.

to look at the new method using the BF fade on the Eagles this week.

Ravens rate +2.8

Eagles (-11.3)

Teams in the negative are fades. So this supports the BF with a fade on the Eagles.

The Eagles would not be a stand-alone fade but using it as a mismatch they method supports the BF fade on the Eagles.

To look at Steelers game, a game I have a play on Steelers but not any regression  play.

Steelers +15.7

Bengals +8.3

Supports my play on Steelers.

Actually 15.7 is pretty  high.

Boys were +18.2 VS Giants

Look at Bills game .....

Bills +12.9

9ers +13.8

Pretty even.

@theclaw

 Good stuff claw very interesting. The point you made about the mid point of the season and expected regression makes a ton of sense. It explains why I put a new system/method into play last season starting week 9 and had a killer second half. Now the first half of this season was a nightmare for me, just hanging on for dear life to remain around the break even point and being as low as -7 units at one point. I¡¯m hoping that the turnaround is coming. Like you and jow seem to be getting at, the favorites are way overvalued at this point and the dogs are undervalued. Great conversation and I look forward to hearing more as the year goes on. 

Raiders really took it to KC. No way they should of lost that game. Outgained KC by 105 yards

Ave gain per play ....6.9 -4.9 = 2

Ave per pass attempt .... 8.4-5.2= 3.2

Rushing yards .... 116 -63

Sacked Mahomes 5 times for 40 yards in losses compared to sacking Raiders 3 times for 22 yards.

Raiders did have 1 TO to KC 0. But even with that 1 TO Raiders should win.

According to PR II Raiders should of won this game by 6.8 pts

That was such a dominate game that a team averaging this per week would be amoung the best in history.