After being forced to retire from the Australian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen has won back-to-back races in Japan and China. Action shifts stateside tomorrow for the third running of the Miami Grand Prix, a race Verstappen has won in each of its first two years on the Formula 1 circuit.
As is custom, Verstappen is the overwhelming betting favorite after securing pole position in Saturday's qualifying. Does anyone else stand even the slightest chance this afternoon in South Beach?
Here are the latest Formula 1 odds for the 2024 Miami GP.
Miami Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Driver | Team |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | -700 | -800 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +750 | +600 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +1,800 | +2,200 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | +2,500 | +1,800 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | +2,900 | +2,500 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +7,000 | +8,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | +9,500 | +10,000 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +11,000 | +10,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +20,000 | +30,000 |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +20,000 | +25,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | RB | +42,000 | +40,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | +42,000 | +40,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Kick Sauber | +50,000 | +70,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | +50,000 | +70,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | RB | +50,000 | +70,000 |
| Alexander Albon | Williams | +50,000 | +70,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | Kick Sauber | +50,000 | +80,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +50,000 | +60,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | Alpine | +50,000 | +60,000 |
| Logan Sargeant | Williams | +50,000 | +80,000 |
Odds as of 5-5.
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Miami Grand Prix post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-590 at BetRivers)
Best bet: Sergio Perez to podium (-115 at FanDuel)
Perez had a disappointing Saturday, securing third in the sprint race and grabbing just the fourth position in qualifying.
However, the Mexican driver's showing in Miami last year is hard to ignore. He was the runner-up in qualifying before finishing just five seconds behind Verstappen on race day. Perez has also podiumed in all but one race this year.
Miami Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | 2 | Charles LeClerc |
| 3 | Carlos Sainz | 4 | Sergio Perez |
| 5 | Lando Norris | 6 | Oscar Piastri |
| 7 | George Russell | 8 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 9 | Nico Hulkenberg | 10 | Yuki Tsunoda |
| 11 | Lance Stroll | 12 | Pierre Gasly |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon | 14 | Alex Albon |
| 15 | Fernando Alonso | 16 | Lance Stroll |
| 17 | Logan Sargeant | 18 | Kevin Magnussen |
| 19 | Zhou Guanyu | 20 | Daniel Ricciardo |
Miami Grand Prix pre-qualifying leans
Max Verstappen to win (-500 at DraftKings)
Verstappen is the only winner in this course's young two-year history. In the inaugural race in 2022, Verstappen took home the win despite starting third on the grid. Last year, he took first despite starting ninth on the grid, demonstrating that even some trouble in qualification can't keep him from topping the podium.
Mad Max is also coming across a masterclass performance at the Chinese Grand Prix, where he was a triple result winner across the sprint, qualification, and race.
So whether it's historical performance at this race or his recent form, Verstappen is worthy of his shorter-than-usual odds.
Lean: Stay away.
Sergio Perez to win (+1,200 at FanDuel)
If anyone were to be a threat to Verstappen this weekend, it would be his teammate.
Perez took pole position in the qualifying round last year but was ultimately bested by Verstappen in the race during his impressive climb of eight positions to the top. Nevertheless, Perez finished "just" 5.384 behind Verstappen, which marks one of the smaller margins of victories from Verstappen dating back to last year.
The Mexican racer has also made the podium in four of this year's five races, demonstrating solid recent form. In China, he managed a runner-up finish in qualification before finishing third, and in the race prior, finished as runner-up in both rounds.
Perez has managed to snipe a few early-season wins in recent years despite Verstappen's extended dominance, having won at least one race in the first seven races of each of the last three seasons — including two last year.
Lean: Bet prior to qualification.
Lando Norris to podium (+125 at DraftKings)
Norris understandably opens at +125 following his second-place finish in China, climbing from the fourth position. The market on this prop seems to have corrected over the young season, with these odds being a far cry from the +1,000 for the opening race of the season.
His +125 odds are still a value proposition since Norris has hit it in nine of his last 18. It’s best to bet it after qualification, as he’s a race-day climber as opposed to a qualification performer.
Best bet: Bet after qualification.
Miami Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
Max Verstappen (-600 to -550)
Max Verstappen won the Japanese and Chinese Grands Prix by more than 12 seconds apiece, further showing that his retirement in Australia was merely a blip on the radar. While he's emerged victorious in Miami the last two years, both wins were by narrower margins than that.
Still, his success at Miami and the world over is undeniable and until someone else can prove he can challenge Verstappen, there's no reason for the odds to shift all that much from week to week.
Sergio Perez (+1,100 to +1,200)
Sergio Perez, Verstappen's running mate for Red Bull, was the runner-up in Miami last year and no one else was within sniffing distance of one of the top two spots on the podium. Checo has been a consistent podium fixture this year, missing out on the Top 3 in Australia but otherwise finishing second thrice and third once. He won a pair of early races in 2023 but Verstappen hasn't loosened his grip atop the board at any point this season.
Lando Norris (+1,800 to +2,000)
Lando Norris hasn't fared particularly well in South Florida, retiring from its first iteration and finishing a very distant 17th in 2023. However, he is coming off a second-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix for his best result of the young season.
Norris is still seeking his first win on the circuit, and after a rather bumpy start to 2023, he finished second six times in the final 13 events. So, the version of Norris hitting Miami this week is not the same one who flamed out on this track in consecutive years.
Odds as of April 28, 2024.
Previous Miami Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
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Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
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