We will see a NASCAR Cup Series Champion crowned at Phoenix Raceway today, and while only four drivers are eligible to win the sport's ultimate prize, 38 drivers are eligible to visit Victory Lane.
Read our free betting picks to see who you should be backing in this race as Ryan Blaney seeks his second straight title.
Odds to win 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
| Driver |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +285 | +260 |
| Joey Logano | +285 | +250 |
| William Byron | +370 | +400 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 | +700 |
| Kyle Larson | +850 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +850 | +850 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,100 | +1,400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,600 | +2,200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,900 | +2,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +4,500 | +4,500 |
| Kyle Busch | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds as of 11-10.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race field
Ryan Blaney won his way into the Championship 4 at Martinsville, just as he did in 2023 when he went on to finish second behind non-playoff driver Ross Chastain at Phoenix to clinch his first-ever championship. The No. 12 pilot will hope that history is repeating itself, but Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Joey Logano will be trying to flip the script.
Reddick won the regular-season championship but struggled early in the playoffs and found himself behind the eight-ball heading into the Round of 8. However, he was able to win at Homestead-Miami to make it to the big dance for the first time in his Cup Series career.
Joey Logano is Blaney's Penske teammate, but he'll be in search of his third career championship and second in three years.
Byron has never won a title, and he's only eligible at Phoenix because NASCAR overturned the results at Martinsville due to a "wall ride" on the final turn that enabled Christopher Bell to sneak in via tiebreaker over the No. 24 driver.
Speaking of Bell, he was a dominant winner at Phoenix back in March and will surely be motivated to spoil the party on Sunday.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11-6.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race pre-qualifying favorites
Ryan Blaney (+400)
One of these years, Ryan Blaney is going to find victory lane in Phoenix. While he’s 0-for-17 in the NASCAR Cup Series on this track, he does have 11 Top-10 finishes in those 17 starts, including eight consecutively.
Furthermore, he’s finished runner-up in three of his last four Phoenix tries, fourth in the two starts prior, and fifth this spring — leading 322 laps in this span.
William Byron (+600)
Byron won the 2023 spring race with 64 laps led, with stage finishes of first and second, respectively. This spring, he qualified fifth, finished sixth and fourth in the two stages but came home 18th. He was on the pole and finished fourth last Fall after leading 95 of 312 laps. Byron has six Top-10 finishes in his last nine Phoenix tries.
His detriment is a 27-race winless streak where the other three Championship 4 drivers swept the Round of 8. Also, the last driver to win both the Daytona 500 and championship in the same season was Jimmie Johnson in 2013. However, Hendrick Motorsports produced the only three instances since 1980: Jeff Gordon (1997), Johnson (2006) and Johnson (2013).
Joey Logano (+650)
Logano has been feast or famine at this track. He had 612 laps led and seven Top-10 finishes in an eight-race span at Phoenix coming into last season that included a pair of wins (Spring 2020, Fall 2022) and a runner-up (Spring 2021).
However, Logano failed to lead a lap a year ago, failed to score any stage points, and finished 11th and 18th, respectively. This spring, he qualified 23rd and finished 34th without a lap led, too. He finished 32nd in Loudon. Still, the two times Logano won a championship, he won the Round of 8 opening race, just as he did this season at Las Vegas...
Tyler Reddick (+650)
Reddick has two Top-5 finishes in nine Phoenix tries. However, despite finishing 10th this spring, he led 68 laps and finished first and second, respectively, in the two stages. His last two Fall finishes were 23rd and 22nd, respectively, but a sixth-place finish in Loudon this spring gives Reddick a fighting chance.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race sleepers
Kyle Larson (+800)
Phoenix didn’t used to be one of Larson’s better tracks. Now, it’s become one.
Larson has five Top-5 finishes in his last nine starts there and finished fourth at Loudon this summer. The thing is, while having nine Top-10 finishes in his last 11 Phoenix tries, Larson also has just one career win in 20 Phoenix starts in the Cup. He is 0-for-1 in Trucks and 0-for-5 in the Xfinity Series.
Ross Chastain (+1,600)
Chastain won the race last Fall after leading 157 laps and finishing third and second, respectively, in the pair of stages. He had stage points in both stages in the 2023 spring race but had a late race run-in with Denny Hamlin that relegated him to a 24th-place result. He finished sixth this past spring. In 2022, Chastain finished second and third respectively.
Chase Briscoe (+3,500)
He won the 2022 spring race after leading 101 laps. Briscoe led 11 more laps that Fall with stage finishes of third and fourth, respectively, and a finish of fourth. The last two springs, he came home seventh and ninth, respectively. That’s why the 24th-place run last November doesn’t scare me off. Especially since he finished runner-up at Loudon.
Chris Buescher (+4,000)
Ford’s have been quick in Phoenix, and Buescher won the second stage last Fall and finished fifth in the race. He was runner-up this spring and fifth at Loudon this summer.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race fades
Denny Hamlin (+1,200)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has 12 Top-10 finishes in his last 17 starts in the desert, including an eighth-place run last Fall. However, with this Next Gen car, his best finish is eighth with 82 laps led. He was also 24th in Loudon this year. Two wins in 38 Phoenix starts makes me leery.
Martin Truex Jr. (+2,200)
He was at his best at Phoenix in 2021 with a win in the spring and a runner-up that Fall. Since then, 35th, 15th, 17th, sixth, and seventh, respectively, with 56 laps led — 55 coming this past spring. He has three Top-5 finishes in his last 12 Phoenix starts.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race prop pick
In eight of the nine years under this Championship 4 format, the champion had to win the season finale. Plus, Kevin Harvick is the last driver in 2014 to sweep both Phoenix races in a single season.
That’s why a Top-3 finish for Christopher Bell is a great play. Bell won the spring race and has five Top-10 finishes in his last seven Phoenix starts. He also won at New Hampshire, a similar track this summer.
Plus, a non-Championship 4 driver has finished in the Top-3 in seven of the 10 years, including two in a row.
Prior to this format, the champion only won the final race once in the previous 10 years of the playoff format (2011 Tony Stewart). In fact, if you go back to the start of the Modern Era (1972) and go through the 2003 season on the traditional points format, the season champion won the season finale just two times in 42 years.
Jeff Gordon (1998 in Atlanta) and Tony Stewart (2011 in Homestead). They’re 8-for-9 since.
Pick: Christopher Bell Top 3 finish (+130 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Phoenix Raceway track analysis
Nothing has changed in regards to this track this year in comparison to the last time out.
The Ford drivers led 89% of laps (558-for-624) in 2022, including 248 of the 312 in the spring race and 310 of the 312 in the Fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 65 of the remaining 66 laps between the two races, with the only other driver to lead a lap in Phoenix last year being AJ Allmendinger (one lap, Fall race).
Last year, Chevrolet flipped the script. They led 532 of the 629 combined laps a year ago (84.5%), taking two of the top four finishing positions in the spring race.
Ford’s led 82 of the remaining 97 laps with Toyota taking the other 15, all in the Fall race.
This spring, Toyota drivers led 298 of the 312 laps. Ford led the remaining 14. Among the 298, JGR led all but 68, with Reddick from 23XI Racing leading the rest.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race trends
- Starting position matters so much in Phoenix. Twelve of the last 14 Phoenix winners have come from a Top-10 starting spot. Last year, the winners started third and eighth, respectively. Bell qualified 13th this spring.
- Nine of the last 11 Phoenix races saw the eventual race winner get a Top 5 in the opening stage, including the last five finishing second, first, first, third, and no points, respectively.
- Furthermore, 10 of the last 11 race winners had a Top-2 in Stage 2, including the last four winners finishing second in the second stage three times, and Bell won the second stage this spring.
- Basically, a driver in the Top 5 in Stage 1 and top 2 in Stage 2 is your winner on Sunday.
- There have been eight straight different winners at Phoenix: Elliott, Truex Jr., Larson, Bowman, Logano, Byron, Chastain, and Bell.
Not intended for use in MA.
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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race info
| Location: | Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10-2024 |
| Start time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Previous NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race winners
Phoenix has held the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race since 2020, with the first three race winners also being crowned Cup Series champions. Ross Chastain bucked the trend in 2023 while Ryan Blaney finished second to take home his first championship.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Ross Chastain |
| 2022 | Joey Logano |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott |
How to make NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
