YellaWood 500: Talladega Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

The first four cuts from the NASCAR playoffs have been made, and William Byron leads the way entering the Round of 12 as this weekend's YellaWood 500 odds take shape. 

This season's NASCAR Cup Series odds continue to be a dogfight, and this high-variance superspeedway race at Talladega will be a key battleground as drivers position themselves for 2024's stretch run.

Get the latest on Sunday's NASCAR odds, along with our best YellaWood 500 betting picks for October 6.

YellaWood 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-2.

YellaWood 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Brad Keselowski (+900)
Keselowski has finished 23rd or worse in three of his last five Talladega starts, however, he finished runner-up this spring and is a six-time race winner on the high-banked 2.66-mile oval. He also finished eighth in August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, a similar track to Talladega.

Ryan Blaney (+900)
The Team Penske driver has an astounding five Top-2 finishes in his last 10 Talladega tries, three in the last four. He also has victories in 2019, 2020, 2023. Blaney finished second and third, respectively, in Atlanta this season which, along with Daytona, is the only other similar track on the schedule. 

William Byron (+1,300)
He has seven Top-12 finishes in his last nine Talladega starts, including a runner-up finish in the spring of 2021 and last fall. His Daytona 500 victory in February is one of three Top-10 finishes in five superspeedway races this season. 

Denny Hamlin (+1,600)
He can win at any given time on a superspeedway. Hamlin has seven Top-7 finishes in his last 12 Talladega tries including a third place run last fall. For the fall race in general, he’s finished third, sixth, fourth, third, first, seventh, fifth and third, respectively. That’s why despite finishes of 19th, 23rd, 37th, 38th and 24th on superspeedways this season, I’m taking the risk. 

YellaWood 500 sleepers

Austin Cindric (+2,000)
Despite finishing 21st, 26th, and 23rd in the spring race, Cindric has finished ninth and fifth in the fall race. Cindric also finished fourth and 10th, respectively, in Atlanta this season.

Christopher Bell (+2,800)
Great value here. Bell finished third in both Daytona races this season and was fourth in the last Atlanta race. 

Alex Bowman (+2,800)
He finished fifth this past spring which is one of three Top-5 finishes in five superspeedway starts this season. He was runner-up in the season-opening Daytona 500 and fifth in the last speedway race in Atlanta.

Chase Briscoe (+4,000)
He was 10th in the season-opening Daytona 500 and 14th in the annual summer trip to the same track. For Talladega, Briscoe finished 10th, fourth, 13th and 12th, respectively, in his last four starts.

Todd Gilliland (+5,000)
He’s been quietly good here. Gilliland has finished seventh, 10th, 12th and eighth, respectively, in his last four Talladega starts. 

YellaWood 500 fades

Joey Logano (+900)
Logano scored the second-most points and led the most laps on these tracks last year. He’s also a three-time Talladega winner (Oct. 2015, October 2016, April 2018). So why am I fading him? Six of his last eight Talladega finishes have seen him finish 24th or worse, with just one Top-10 finish in his last nine here. That’s a reason to be wary. He was 30th and 24th last year and 19th this past spring. So, while he won the last superspeedway race in Atlanta, Logano has finished 32nd and 31st in Daytona, and 28th in the spring race at Atlanta as well. 

Kyle Busch (+1,000)
He’s finished third, first and 26th, respectively in the last three spring races. However, those are also his only Top-5 finishes in his last 14 Talladega starts. Busch’s last 10 finishes in the fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse, with his last seven being 30th, 27th, 26th, 19th, 27th, 27th, 20th and 25th, respectively. Even being third and seventh this season in Atlanta and runner-up in the Coke Zero Sugar 400, fade Busch this weekend.

Chase Elliott (+1,300)
He has two trips to victory lane in his last 10 Talladega starts. Elliott’s pair of Talladega finishes in 2022 were seventh and first, respectively, while a year ago he was 12th and seventh.  He finished 15th this past spring, with his other superspeedway results being 14th and 36th at Daytona and 15th and eighth in Atlanta. 

Bubba Wallace (+1,800)
He won here in 2021. My only pause is  that win is his only finish better than 14th here in his 13 Cup tries. His NXS finishes were 31st, 20th, 13th and 13th, respectively. In this Next Gen, his finishes are 17th, 16th, 28th, 23rd and 36th. So, despite finishing fifth and sixth at Daytona this season and fifth in the spring Atlanta race, I’m fading Wallace. 

Kyle Larson (+1,800)
He’s only 1-for-46 for Top 5s on superspeedways. In fact, his last nine finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, 37th, fourth, 18th, 33rd, 15th and 21st. He’s finished 11th, 32nd, 21st, 21st and 37th on superspeedways this season. Not a good week for him.

Martin Truex Jr. (+2,500)
He’s had just three Top-5 finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 15 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th, 27th, 18th and 11th.  On top of that, out of 110 drafting track starts between Daytona, Talladega, and the seven races at Atlanta with the new configuration, Truex has no wins.

YellaWood 500 prop pick

Daniel Suarez Top-5 finish

Suarez has finished eighth, ninth, 10th and 27th in his last four Talladega tries. He was first and second, respectively, in Atlanta this season. 

Pick: Daniel Suarez Top-5 finish (+350 at DraftKings)

2024 YellaWood 500 odds

Driver
Ryan Blaney	+900	+1,200	+1,200
Joey Logano	+900	+1,300	+1,200
Brad Keselowski	+900	+1,300	+1,200
Kyle Busch	+1,000	+1,300	+700
William Byron	+1,300	+1,500	+1,400
Chase Elliott	+1,300	+1,600	+1,800
Denny Hamlin	+1,600	+1,700	+1,400
Tyler Reddick	+1,800	+2,400	+2,200
Kyle Larson	+1,800	+2,100	+2,500
Chris Buescher	+1,800	+2,400	+1,200
Bubba Wallace	+1,800	+2,400	+2,000
Ross Chastain	+2,000	+2,300	+2,000
Austin Cindric	+2,000	+2,100	+2,200
Michael McDowell	+2,500	+3,000	+2,200
Martin Truex Jr.	+2,500	+2,800	+2,500
Daniel Suarez	+2,800	+3,400	+3,000
Christopher Bell	+2,800	+2,500	+2,500
Alex Bowman	+2,800	+3,100	+2,200
Ty Gibbs	+3,000	+3,300	+2,500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+3,000	+3,600	+3,500

Odds as of 10-2.

YellaWood 500 field

Talladega's a superspeedway track, meaning it's extremely high-variance compared to most other NASCAR courses. As such, we're seeing the favorites priced roughly twice as long as you'd see for most races (+900 to +1,200 range), and a very linear, low-curving distribution to the odds board. This could be anyone's race.

Sitting as the slimmest of favorites is Ryan Blaney, priced alongside or a hair beneath the rest of the top tier. Blaney's not only the defending Cup Series champ, but the the defending champ in this race, and three-time Talladega winner. Even if this race turns into a crapshoot, he knows what it takes to bring it home on this track. 

Joey Logano's another three-time winner whose price mirrors Blaney's. However, Logano's been far more hit-or-miss of late. While he won at Atlanta last month (a superspeedway track, comparable to Talladega), he's finished 14th or worse in seven of the last 10 races). He's currently eighth in the standings, so perhaps the playoff bubble will spark some urgency in his camp.

Brad Keselowski also finds himself among the favorites — he's won at Talladega a monster six times. But Keselowski's also been on the decline this season, especially on the back end. Already eliminated from the playoffs, he has no Top-10 finishes in any of the past five races, during which time his average finish is 21.4.

If you're a weekly odds-surfer who's wondering what's up with the perennial favorites — Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin — Larson's never been a superspeedway specialist, while Hamlin's been on the skids (his best finish on a SSW track this year is 19th) despite the Daytona 500 formerly being his own personal playground.

Talladega Superspeedway track analysis

Talladega is similar to Daytona, and now Atlanta too, which is why you’ll see the similar trends here. In saying that, don’t overthink it this week. A non-playoff driver has won the Talladega playoff race just six times.

However, since the win-and-advance format was introduced in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an eligible playoff driver, with the exception of 2021. They’re 9-for-10.

Chevrolet has won three of the last five Talladega races. With the Next Gen, they’re 10-for-17 in superspeedway victories (5-for-6 in 2022, 3-for-6 in 2023, 2-for-5 in 2024).

Ford has won 12 of the last 19 Talladega races and scored the last two victories of the season on superspeedways with Harrison Burton (Wood Brothers) and Joey Logano (Penske) at Daytona and Atlanta, respectively. 

By comparison, Toyota has only won four times in the last 30 Talladega races overall, but one was this spring from Tyler Reddick. 

YellaWood 500 trends

• The last six winners each started 19th, 19th, 16th, 17th, 10th, 18th. 13 of the previous 14 races were won by the Top-6 rows. Only two pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 39 Cup races at Talladega. Those are the only two front-row starters to win since 2011’s playoff race (26 races). 
  
  
• Previously, five of the 13 races before were won by front-row starters. On top of that, only one Daytona pole winner has won there since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016) too.
  
  
• Since 1995, only eight drivers have earned their first or second career wins at Talladega. 

YelaWood 500 info

Previous YellaWood 500 winners

The three drivers atop this year's odds board are all two-time YellaWood winners, including defending champ Ryan Blaney.

How to make YellaWood 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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