The Academy Awards nominations were announced on Tuesday, January 23. Oscars odds are hereby available and the races are all set.
While Best Actress was mostly in line with where the pre-nomination odds were at, one surprise was the lack of Margot Robbie for her work in Barbie. Barbie received eight total nominations but its star — and director Greta Gerwig — was left behind.
Nevertheless, we will break down the Best Actress odds race as it stands with the 2024 Academy Awards set for Sunday, March 10.
Additionally, we are also looking at Best Picture predictions and Best Actor predictions ahead of this year's ceremony.
Finally, don't forget to take advantage of our free printable 2024 Oscars ballot for your home contests!
2024 Oscars Best Actress odds
| Actress |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) | -250 | -175 |
| Emma Stone (Poor Things) | +150 | +125 |
| Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) | +2,500 | +1,200 |
| Carey Mulligan (Maestro) | +6,500 | +6,600 |
| Annette Benning (Nyad) | +6,500 | +6,600 |
Odds as of March 10, 2024.
Lily Gladstone (-175)
For much of awards season, Best Actress was one of the few categories that didn't feel forecast from a long distance. Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone had swapped spots back and forth as the betting favorite, with the difference in their odds being fairly negligible.
With the ceremony less than a week away, Gladstone is starting to feel more like a certainty. Part of this could be due to her winning Best Actress at the Screen Actors Guild Awards over Stone.
Emma Stone (+150)
Stone won the Globe for Best Actress - Musical/Comedy and a variety of other awards for Poor Things. It's a daring, physical performance that requires deft comic timing and dramatic pathos. Poor Things is very well-liked among critics and audiences and might have an edge if voters deem Killers of the Flower Moon too overwhelming with its punishing sadness.
She has been nominated for three Oscars (most recently for Best Supporting Actress for The Favourite, which, like Poor Things, was directed by Yorgos Lanthimos) and won Best Actress for La La Land.
Sandra Huller (+2,500)
Another shame is Sandra Huller not having much chance to win here. The German actress first garnered international acclaim for he role in the comedy Toni Erdmann, but has a one-two punch from 2023 in Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. As an author standing accused of murdering her husband in Anatomy of a Fall, she delivers a complicated and layered performance. She's not portrayed as particularly likable, but that also feeds into the idea of how perception and reality aren't exactly the same — particularly when someone is on trial for murder. She is excellent in the film and deserves her nomination, but a win will prove elusive.
Carey Mulligan (+6,600)
Like her scene partner in Maestro, Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan will come up short. This is her third nomination, and she is probably even more beloved in the role than Cooper was as Leonard Bernstein, but it won't be enough.
Annette Benning (+6,600)
This marks the fifth Oscar nomination for Annette Benning — her first since 2010's The Kids Are All Right — and she has never won. She's about to go 0-for-5. A great actress, Benning may one day get the trophy but she's been a distant fifth for much of the awards season.
Prediction: Lily Gladstone (-175)
Like the odds, I have flip-flopped multiple times. Momentum appeared to be heading in Stone's direction, and odds went with her until SAG honored Gladstone. Hopefully, you were able to lay a wager when her odds offered more betting value — she was even money immediately after the nominations were announced. And while there is an outside chance Stone wins again, I wouldn't bet against Gladstone at this point.
