When you think of some of the all-time great individual rivalries in sports, you think of Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson, Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal, Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson, and Jack Nicklaus vs. Arnold Palmer.
However, Joey Chestnut vs. Takeru Kobayashi trumps them all as these two are legends in the world of competitive eating, and no matter who you root for, nobody's going to hate you for it. The two will renew their fierce eating rivalry in a one-on-one hotdog eating competition later this afternoon.
Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi have a staredown before they compete against each other for the first time in 15 YEARS.
— Netflix (@netflix) September 1, 2024
The #ChestnutVSKobayashi: Unfinished Beef hot dog eating competition is LIVE on Netflix tomorrow at 12PM PT / 3PM ET. pic.twitter.com/OnYYQeyIa1
How did this massive event come to be? Well, Joey Chestnut was originally tabbed as the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds favorite but was controversially banned due to his deal with Impossible Foods, a plant-based brand that is a rival to Nathan's.
Nathan's loss is Netflix's gain and the anticipation for this incredible showdown is palpable. Join me as I break down the odds for Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef.
Chestnut vs Kobayashi odds
| Joey Chestnut | Takeru Kobayashi | |
|---|---|---|
| -1,100 | Moneyline | +600 |
| -13.5 (-120) | Spread | +13.5 (-120) |
| Over 116.5 (+100) | Total | Under 116.5 (-140) |
Odds from bet365 as of 9/2.
There's a reason Joey Chestnut is considered the G.O.A.T. when it comes to competitive eating. He's won eight straight and 13 of the last 15 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contests. Despite slowing down over the last two years — failing to exceed 65 hot dogs after knocking back 70+ the six years prior — Chestnut is the massive favorite and with good reason.
For starters, Takeru Kobayashi essentially retired from competitive eating last month, citing "time to repair the damage done to his body." So, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume he may be a little out of practice and a bit out of 'eating shape' when September 2 rolls around.
Chestnut is still in the prime of his career and with a psychological edge, having not lost to Kobayashi since 2006, Chestnut will be in no mood to lose his place atop the leaderboard in a Netflix special.
Pick: Joey Chestnut moneyline (-2,000)
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi best bets
Joey Chestnut number of hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes
| Over 65.5 | Under 65.5 |
|---|---|
| +120 | -160 |
Joey Chestnut's career is still ongoing, but his peak performances came between 2016 and 2021 when he consumed 70+ hot dogs. He topped out at 76 hotdogs in 2021, but over the last two years, he's managed to eat 63 and 62 hot dogs, respectively.
For this Netflix special, with the world watching, can Chestnut dig deep within his gut for another performance of epic proportions? Given how he was unceremoniously kicked out of the Coney Island festivities, I'm expecting Chestnut to put on a show and dazzle. He can do 66 in his sleep, which is why I'm taking the Over.
Pick: Over 65.5 hot dogs eaten (+120)
Takeru Kobayashi number of hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes
| Over 50.5 | Under 50.5 |
|---|---|
| -120 | -120 |
One does not simply retire from competitive eating to repair the body then come back with a vengeance. However, Netflix wouldn't be in on this if they didn't think Kobayashi could still knock 'em back. This number is far too low and I believe the Over is the right side.
This is still the man who holds the record for eating 13 grilled cheese sandwiches in one minute, 159 tacos in 10 minutes, and 62 slices of pizza (15.5 pizzas) in 12 minutes. Let's give Kobayashi some credit and take him to go Over 50.5.
Pick: Over 50.5 hot dogs eaten (-120)
